Posts Tagged ‘senator’

An Open Letter to Indiana’s Senators

Posted on: July 25th, 2011 by Kyle. | No Comments

Senators Lugar and Coats,

As a resident of Indiana, I must say that I am deeply disappointed with the way the Republican Party has conducted itself during the debt negotiations. Hardworking Hoosiers are being asked to sacrifice trillions of dollars worth of cuts from the federal budget, yet Republicans cannot ask the wealthiest to spare an extra dime. If the problem of deficit reduction is as urgent as some far-right Republicans claim it to be, then it should be the patriotic duty of these Americans to pay their fair share in taxes.

Shared sacrifice is an American value. It is unseemly to have a hedge fund manager pay a lower rate in taxes than a single mom that can barely make it by on two jobs. To only ask middle class and poor Americans to take the hit is absolutely unacceptable. Challenge the radicals in the Republican Party who are unyielding in their support of the wealthy. Please show some leadership by passing a debt ceiling bill that does not only target the middle class for budget cuts, but also requires top income earners to sacrifice a little as well. It’s the American thing to do.

Kind regards,
Kyle Bell

Tea Party Candidate Defeats Alaska Senator Murkowski

Posted on: August 31st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

One week after the Alaska Republican Senate primary we have a winner. Senator Lisa Murkowski conceded defeat in a phone call to her Sarah Palin-backed far-right challenger. Joe Miller, who led by 1,668 votes after last week’s primary, was leading by 1,100 votes once counting resumed today. Some 16,000 votes had yet been counted as of last Wednesday, mostly mail-in absentee ballots and disputed ballots.

Murkowski’s defeat is the latest in a string of upsets for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who has also seen more traditional and mainstream Republican candidates lose or forced out in Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Nevada and Utah. The Tea Party victories jeopardize three Republican-held seats (Florida, Kentucky and now Alaska) and Democrat-held pick-up opportunities in Colorado and Nevada.

Palin-Backed Candidate Leading Senator Murkowski in Alaska

Posted on: August 25th, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Joe Miller, a political unknown supported by Sarah Palin and the Tea Party, is leading Senator Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s Republican Senate primary by 3 points. With 84 percent of precincts reporting, Miller is ahead with 51.45% (45,188 votes) to Murkowski’s 48.55% (42,633 votes). While Miller is on-track to defeating Murkowski, the race remains undecided until some 16,000 absentee ballots are counted.

Miller credited the support of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his possible upset. “I’m absolutely certain that was pivotal,” he said. Not surprisingly, Senator Murkowski had a different take on Palin’s support for her opponent. “I think she’s out for her own self-interest. I don’t think she’s out for Alaska’s interest,” Murkowski said.

Senator Murkowski and Sarah Palin have a history of conflict. In 2006, Palin resoundingly defeated Murkowski’s father in the GOP primary for governor. Frank Murkowski came in third place during that primary and received only 19 percent of the vote. Coincidentally, he had appointed his daughter to the Senate seat that he left empty upon assuming the governor’s office in 2002.

If Miller pulls off the victory, he could put this seat into play for the Democrats. Murkowski was seen as a safe choice, but with a far-right political unknown taking the Republican Party’s nomination, it is possible that Democrats could make this race competitive. It was only two years ago that Mark Begich defeated incumbent Senator Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican member at the time.

Election Projection 2010: Southern Senate Seats

Posted on: July 21st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

We’re getting closer to the midterm elections. As such, I will be posting my projections more frequently. The last projection that I published looked at races in the Midwest. Now we’re going to have a look at the South:

Alabama
Incumbent: Richard Shelby (R)
Challenger(s): William Barnes (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Republican

At the heart of the Deep South, Alabama is a state with a heavy Republican tilt. Incumbent Senator Richard Shelby is a former conservative Democrat who saw the painting on the wall and switched parties in 1994. He has won comfortably ever since. In 2004, his margin of victory was nearly 40 percent. It will likely be at least that in his race against Democratic attorney William Barnes. No major Democrats have stepped up to the plate to take on Shelby, all but ensuring his victory. Most of the focus will instead be on the governor’s race.

Arkansas
Incumbent: Blanche Lincoln (D)
Challenger(s): Rep. John Boozman (Republican)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Blanche Lincoln had a difficult task winning re-election before she attracted a primary challenge from Arkansas’s popular Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Despite Arkansas being a last bastion of Democrats in the South, her approval ratings are anemic at best. Nearly 60 percent of voters in the state disapprove of the job that she is doing and her primary opponent forced her into a run-off which she barely won. Not bad for someone that only entered the race a couple months before the primary.

Republicans smell blood here. They are going to put enormous amounts of resources into this state in order to ensure a pick-up. Representative John Boozman has won the Republican nomination, despite a crowded field of eight candidates. The primary on May 18 and the runoff in June ensured that Lincoln would have to expend millions of dollars that she desperately needed for the general election. While polling showed that Halter was a better general election candidate, both of them would likely lose. Arkansas is one of the few states where John McCain outperformed George W. Bush.

Florida
Incumbent: George LeMieux (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Governor Charlie Crist (Independent), Marco Rubio (Republican), Rep. Kendrick Meek and Billionaire Jeff Greene (Democrats)
Prediction: Leaning Independent

One of the most interesting races of the cycle has to be Florida. The sitting Republican Senator, Mel Martinez, abruptly retired in 2009. This left a Senate seat open that the GOP would have to defend in a state that Barack Obama won in 2008. National Republicans netted a recruiting coup by having popular Governor Charlie Crist enter the race. Crist appointed his former campaign manager to fill the seat for the remainder of the term.

Nearly everyone expected Crist to win this race easily. As a result, Democrats only managed to recruit a second tier candidate who lacked name recognition across the state. Little did Crist or national Republicans know that conservative activists would have none of it. You see, Charlie Crist is a moderate Republican that embraced President Obama (literally) and his stimulation package in February 2009.

This infuriated Republicans in the state and ensured that a far right challenge would occur in the primary. The former Speaker of the Florida House, Marco Rubio, entered the race and immediately blasted Crist as not being conservative enough. While polls throughout most of 2009 showed Crist with a comfortable lead, recent months had Rubio leading by as much as 20 percent or more. Ultimately, the humiliation of losing a primary ended Crist’s run as a Republican. He announced on April 29 that he would instead run as an independent.

With Crist as the nominee, Democrats had virtually no shot at winning this race. Now that it is a three-man race, Democrats have two routes to claiming victory: Crist could split the Republican vote with Marco Rubio enough to where Rep. Meek could win a bare plurality of the vote. The second scenario for Democrats to “win” this seat is through a Crist victory whereby he would caucus with Democrats in the Senate. He has not ruled that out and it certainly makes more sense now that national Republicans have all but disowned him. Crist remains heavily popular in the state, with an approval hovering in the mid-50s. It is fairly reasonable to see Crist winning a three-way race (some polls have indicated he would), although not having a party infrastructure behind him will not make the job easy. For now, Crist is the favorite to win this seat, likely helping the Democrats in the process.

Georgia
Incumbent: Johnny Isakson (R)
Challenger(s): Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Like its nearby neighbors of Alabama and South Carolina, Georgia has become a reliably Republican state. In a year that is expected to be moderately good for the GOP, it goes without saying that these ruby red states will likely stay in the hands of the party in power. The only real concern Republicans might have is a potential vacancy. Isakson has been in and out of the hospital recently and is 65 years old. Despite Barack Obama doing well in this state (he only lost by 5 percent), it seems unlikely that Democrats will manage to pull off an upset in a year where they are struggling nationwide.

Kentucky
Incumbent: Jim Bunning (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Attorney General Jack Conway (Democrat) and Dr. Rand Paul (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-Up

The May 18 primary had both parties pick their nominees. Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo barely lost to retiring Senator Jim Bunning (a Republican) in 2004. He gave it another go this time around, but lost to the much younger and more telegenic Jack Conway. Polls showed Jack Conway as the stronger of the two Democrats in the race, while Trey Grayson would gave Republicans their best shot. Grayson was the Republican Party establishment favorite, a protégé of Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but he lost to Rand Paul in a blow-out. Following his victory, Rand Paul suggested that he would have voted against the Civil Rights Act, saying that business owners should have the right to deny service to customers even if it is based on race. Despite the Republican leaning of the state, Democrats can win statewide in Kentucky and Conway is a strong candidate.

Louisiana
Incumbent: David Vitter (R)
Challenger(s): Rep. Charlie Melancon (Democrat)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Incumbent Republican David Vitter has a bit of a female problem. He famously was caught on the D.C. Madam’s list back in 2007 and was an apparently frequent customer. Conservative Democrat Charlie Melancon is running against Vitter, but has yet to prove to be a credible threat. Three years is an eternity in politics, so voters might have already forgotten about his transgressions. It doesn’t help Melancon that the state has seen a shift towards Republicans since Hurricane Katrina. The African American base that helped make this Southern state competitive has largely been displaced.

North Carolina
Incumbent: Richard Burr (R)
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (Democrat)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Democrats Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall faced each other in a June runoff election. Neither of them received the 40 percent necessary in order to avoid a runoff. Marshall won 36 percent of the vote in the May 4 primary to Cunningham’s 27 percent. Marshall won the runoff and will be the Democratic nominee in the fall. The fact that Democrats did not have a nominee before June is not good news as it meant period to raise money and frame the debate against incumbent Republican Richard Burr. The good news for the Democrats is that Burr is not a popular incumbent, with an approval rating well below 50 percent. It also doesn’t hurt that Burr voted against extending unemployment benefits in a state that has a nearly 10 percent unemployment rate.

South Carolina
Incumbent: Jim DeMint (R)
Challenger(s): Alvin Greene (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Alvin Greene surprised everyone with his victory in the South Carolina primary. No one had heard of him. In fact, he had been discharged from the military involuntarily (although honorably), faced legal troubles last year and is currently unemployed. He had only $114 in his campaign account. He did not buy any television ads, held no formal events and did not even have a campaign website. Democrats in the state quickly assumed that the Republican establishment had planted a fake candidate in the field to protect firebrand conservative Jim DeMint from a serious challenge. Whatever the case, DeMint is safe to continue his ways as a mouthpiece for some of the most conservative voices in America. This seat will stay in Republican hands.

West Virginia
Incumbent: Carte Goodwin (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Joe Manchin (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

This is a seat that literally was not on anyone’s radar until just weeks ago. Why? It was not scheduled to take place until 2012. The death of Senator Robert Byrd led to the state legislature, at the behest of Governor Joe Manchin, to pass a law that allowed for a special election to occur this November. Governor Manchin, a popular Democrat in an increasingly Republican state during presidential elections, did not want to appoint himself to the seat as it could hurt his reputation ahead of the 2012 election. Instead, he appointed an aide to fill the seat in a similar way that Charlie Crist did in Florida so that he could run in the November special election. Interestingly, the oldest member in the history of the Senate (Byrd) is being replaced by the youngest (Goodwin) at the age of 36. Representative Shelley Moore Capito was seen as the Republican Party’s best chance at winning this seat. She decided to decline the opportunity. With Manchin’s approval rating at 80 percent, this is a safe seat for the Democrats and one that they will not likely need to spend much time on.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen. One of those races is in Iowa where Senator Chuck Grassley could face one of his toughest re-election battles since he was first elected in 1980.

As you may recall, Grassley was among a handful of Republicans willing to compromise with Democrats on the health care bill. It was nothing more than a stalling tactic. Grassley went back home telling crowds in Iowa that the bill was going to result in death panels, at the same time he was in negotiations with Democrats. Not exactly an act of goodwill.

Grassley’s antics are almost certainly going to become campaign fodder for his Democratic opponent Roxanne Conlin. You can count on Conlin pounding Grassley for standing with insurance companies and demanding to know whether Grassley would vote to repeal the bill. The latest polling puts Grassley under 50 percent and Conlin within single digits. That’s a significant drop from a few months ago when his lead was over 20 points greater.

I’m moving this race into “Lean Republican” from “Likely Republican”. It may soon qualify for “Toss-Up” status if Grassley continues to bleed support.

The other two races that are changing are Illinois and Wisconsin. Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias is slightly trailing Republican Congressman Mark Kirk in this open Senate seat race according to recent polls. This race is now a “Toss-Up” thanks to the failing of Giannoulias’s family bank. If the election were held today, Giannoulias would lose this race. Thankfully for him and the Democrats in Illinois, voters have a short memory span and the election is not for another six months. That gives him plenty of time to remind voters that Mark Kirk voted against health care and has boasted that he would like to see Barack Obama be a one-term president. It also didn’t help that Mark Kirk was caught lying about his military record on multiple occasions, including on the House floor.

Finally, there is Wisconsin, where incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold avoided a potentially bloody general election against former Wisconsin governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson. Governor Thompson is about the only Republican with a legitimate shot of knocking off Feingold, so I am moving this race into the “Likely Democratic” column. Below is a map of both the Southern and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first two election projection updates:

Map

Bill Halter Outraises Blanche Lincoln 2-to-1

Posted on: April 4th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

If you’re a conservative Democrat in Arkansas named Blanche Lincoln, you’re probably not have a very good Easter weekend. Senator Lincoln has raised $1 million in the past three months and has $4 million in the bank. While that normally would not be a terrible haul, her Democratic primary challenger has raised twice as much in just a month’s time. Yes, twice as much in a third of the time. That’s some serious fundraising.

Bill Halter, her challenger, is the Lt. Governor of the state. Polling in the primary shows the race to be competitive, even though his announcement just came on March 1. Lincoln has been trailing her likely Republican challengers for most of the cycle. Her opposition to the public option, along with Joe Lieberman’s, led to its demise in the Senate. Grassroots Democrats have targeted her ever since, labeling her a corporatist for campaign donations she received from insurance companies.

The May 18 primary could determine the fate of this Senate seat, although it appears likely that Democrats will lose it with either candidate. According to a poll from Rasmussen (a Republican leaning pollster), Halter holds every potential Republican candidate to less than 50 percent of the vote. If Lincoln is the Democratic candidate, however, she trails every Republican and holds only one of her four potential opponents to under 50 percent. Part of the reason is because her favorable rating is only 37 percent, while 61 percent view her unfavorably. Halter has a 47 to 40 percent favorable/unfavorable rating.

Evan Bayh Retiring from Senate

Posted on: February 15th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

The past couple weeks we have been tracking the Indiana Senate race as former senator Dan Coats announced his plans to challenge incumbent Senator Evan Bayh. Polling showed that Bayh was far ahead 55-35% and would cruise to re-election. Yet just a day before the filing deadline, Bayh announced that he would not be seeking re-election. Given his 61% approval rating in Indiana, this is one of those rare retirement announcements that was not politically motivated so much as it was a personal decision.

“Congress is not operating as it should,” Bayh said at a news conference in Indianapolis. “The people’s business is not getting done.” He blamed this on increased partisanship and strident ideology in Congress. “I do not love Congress,” Bayh said. “I’m an executive at heart. I value my independence.”

Bayh cited two recent examples of issues that should have garnered bipartisan support, yet were defeated due to political reasons. The first was a deficit reduction commission that Republicans said they supported, but at the last minute 7 of them pulled out even though they co-sponsored the bill. The second was a jobs bill that failed to pass despite the still high unemployment rate.

While a lot of outsiders are going to say that Bayh retired due to an increasingly anti-incumbent mood in the country, the facts do not bear this out. Not only does he continue to be enormously popular in Indiana, he led both of his potential opponents by substantial margins (not to mention both of them are flawed candidates). Finally, Bayh had $12 million in his campaign warchest to spend as he pleased. That’s a ton of money in a medium-sized state like Indiana. He could have saturated the airwaves with ads from July until Election Day and still had money to spare. I take him for his word that his motivation was due to gridlock. Ultimately, if Bayh wants to return to Indianapolis to serve as governor, he has that opportunity now in 2012.

Senator Bayh has taken a lot of heat from liberal bloggers across the country for his centrist positions. As a resident of this state, I have to say that some of his positions (particularly on climate change) were disappointing, yet reflect a realization that Indiana stood not to benefit from cap-and-trade, but to potentially face increased energy costs. He was doing his job to stand for the interests of his state just as California’s delegation was pleading for financial assistance as their state was drowning in debt. From some of the postings that I have read on other sites, you would think that Bayh was a total pariah. In reality he voted for the stimulus and for health care reform, either of which he could have stopped had he sided with the Republicans in their opposition. It was Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana that required special treatment in order to win their votes. Bayh was a team player.

As for who will replace Bayh as the Democratic candidate for Senate, the state party will probably decide that, since the filing deadline is tomorrow. Any of Indiana’s Democratic House members would be a good pick, including Congressman Joe Donnelly representing my district (Indiana’s 2nd). The favorites seem to be either Representative Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth. Both of them come from mostly rural, Southern Indiana districts where Democrats will need to win in order to win statewide. Ironically, if Ellsworth gets the nod, he may face former Republican Rep. John Hostetler whom he beat in 2006. It should be an interesting Senate race in Indiana this year.

Indiana Senate: Bayh Leads Coats by 20

Posted on: February 11th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Just a day after former senator Dan Coats announced his entrance into the Indiana Senate race, a poll shows that he has a lot of ground to make up before he can call himself a “current senator”. Incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh, who enjoys a 61% approval rating in the state, leads Coats by 20 points. If the race were held today, Bayh would win 55% of the vote to Coats’ 35%. Bayh does particularly well in Democratic strongholds of Indianapolis and Northwest Indiana – garnering 68% in both.

Research 2000 also polled President Obama. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win Indiana since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide victory. Despite a dip in support, the president is doing surprisingly well in this traditionally Republican state. His approval rating stands at 46%, only a few points below the national average of 50%, with 49% disapproving. While there is certainly room for improvement, he has a good chance of winning Indiana again in 2012 as the economy improves (and his approval rating with it).

Fmr. Sen. Coats to Challenge Evan Bayh in Indiana

Posted on: February 10th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Former Senator Dan Coats of Indiana has made it official on a South Bend radio station. He will be challenging incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh for Indiana’s junior seat in the Senate. Coats retired in 1998 when Evan Bayh, a popular two term governor, announced that he would be running for the seat. Since leaving the Senate, Coats has moved to Virginia where he has been serving as a lobbyist. Both will undoubtedly play into the Bayh campaign strategy.

Carpetbaggers have won in states like New York, where Hillary Clinton succeeded in 2000, but have also failed in states like Illinois where Alan Keyes was handily defeated by Barack Obama in 2004. Coats brings experience winning statewide office to the table, something his opponents for the Republican nomination don’t have. However, the last time he won an election was in 1992. In politics, that might as well be a century ago.

Tell the Senate to Step Up for Healthcare Reform

Posted on: November 9th, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

Last night the United States came one step closer to real healthcare reform when the House passed its version of the bill. The only thing standing between the American people and reform is the U.S. Senate. Since the Republican Party has promised to obstruct the President’s agenda at every corner, it will take every single Democrat (as well as independent senators that caucus with the Democrats) in the Senate to pass this bill.

The primary obstacle is Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. He has stated publicly on multiple occasions throughout the past couple weeks that he will join Republicans in filibustering the bill in the Senate if a public option is not removed. His opposition is not acceptable. Having received over $1 million from the insurance industry, Senator Lieberman is siding with Aetna and Blue Cross Blue Shield over his real constituents – who support the public option by over 60%.

Lieberman is showing his true ideological colors. Having voted for the Iraq War and publicly condemning Democrats that opposed it, he was an ally of the Bush administration when Democrats needed him most. In 2006, having pledged to respect the wishes of the voters, he ran as a Democrat and lost the primary to Ned Lamont. He broke his word and created his own party called the “Connecticut for Lieberman” party (as comedian Colbert pointed out, it’s Connecticut for Lieberman, not Lieberman for Connecticut).

Having managed to split the Democratic vote in the 2006 general election, Lieberman returned to Washington as an independent, but continued to caucus with the Democrats. As a result, he retained his seniority and became the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee as Democrats gained a majority in the Senate.

It became clear that Lieberman was not going to support the Democratic nominee for president in 2008 as he began campaigning with John McCain. If that was not enough, he couldn’t definitively say whether Barack Obama was a Marxist – he would only “hesitate to say” it. Of course Barack Obama resoundingly thumped John McCain by nearly 10 million votes and the were swept into a 60 seat majority (by the time that Al Franken was finally seated in 2009). Yet there was no punishment for his betrayal of the party and its nominee. The President actually went out of his way to defend Lieberman, calling on the Senate leadership to keep him in the fold and let him keep his chairmanship.

Apparently being a thorn in the side of the Democrats is too much joy for Senator Lieberman to avoid for very long. His opposition to a healthcare bill that included a public option – that just a few years ago he said that he supported – is his latest traitorous act. Joining a Republican filibuster on the most important legislation in our generation is not acceptable. Lieberman and any other Democrats that prevent an up-or-down vote on healthcare should be stripped of their committee chairmanships and face a primary challenge from someone that will support the will of the people.

If you live in the state of Connecticut and support the public option, you should either call, e-mail or show up at the office of Senator Lieberman. Tell him that if he does not support the people of Connecticut over the big insurance giants that you will vote him out of office in 2012. Below is how you can reach him:

Washington, DC Office

706 Hart Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
(202) 224-4041 Voice

Connecticut Office

One Constitution Plaza
7th Floor
Hartford, CT 06103
(860) 549-8463 Voice
(800) 225-5605 In CT

While Senator Lieberman is the only member of our caucus that has said he would join a Republican filibuster of healthcare, there are other conservative senators that need to be reminded of why they were elected. Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas is one of them.

355 Dirksen Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
(202) 224-4843

912 West Fourth Street
Little Rock, AR 72201
(501) 375-2993
Fax (501) 375-7064
Toll Free 1-800-352-9364

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Washington, D.C.
720 Hart Senate Office Building
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510
Tel: 1-202-224-6551

Omaha
7602 Pacific St.
Suite 205
Omaha, NE 68114
Tel: (402) 391-3411

Gov. Crist Faces Conundrum as Sen. Martinez Resigns

Posted on: August 7th, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

CNN is reporting that later today Republican Senator Mel Martinez of Florida will resign his seat. No word on why, but the senator has previously stated his intention to retire from the Senate after serving just one term. Previously Senator Martinez served in the Bush administration as the HUD Secretary.

This resignation creates a bit of a conundrum for Republican Governor Charlie Crist. The governor has announced that he will run for his party’s nomination in the 2010 Senate election. The only problem is that he will have to appoint a temporary replace until the election is held in 2010.

There are several reasons why this complicates things for Governor Crist. For one if he nominates someone that does not agree beforehand to not run for re-election, they automatically become the chief rival to Crist as he seeks the same sit that he is forced to fill.

The second pitfall is if he chooses to appoint himself it could weaken his chances at winning the November 2010 election – or even the primary. As a senator Crist would have to vote on a number of potentially controversial measures. Healthcare reform comes to mind most clearly. Does he work with Democrats to pass Obama’s agenda or does he side with other obstructionist do-nothing Republicans?

A vote in favor of healthcare reform would almost certainly doom his chances of winning the Republican nomination against his more conservative challenger Florida Speaker Marco Rubio. A vote against would give Democrats an election year issue to run against him on, among potentially many others. Being in the majority allows Senate Democrats to force votes that might not go over too well in the Sunshine State. Either way, Martinez’s move is not something that is likely to make Charlie Crist very happy.