Posts Tagged ‘republicans’


Another Self-Inflicted Economic Crisis

Posted on: January 2nd, 2013 by Kyle. | No Comments

Charles Blow is spot-on yet again with his latest column in which he bemoans the continuous nature of the self-inflicted economic crises that we have witnessed over the past couple years: first with the debt ceiling and then with the so-called fiscal cliff, a combination of tax increases and cuts to defense spending and Medicare. While yesterday’s vote to stave off a tax increase on the middle class was a success, it was done by kicking the can down the road rather than resolving fights over the debt ceiling and spending cuts. Blow writes:

“Be clear: there is no reason to celebrate. This is a mournful moment. We — and by we I mean Congress, and by Congress I mean the Republicans in Congress — have again demonstrated just how broken and paralyzed our government has become, how beholden to hostage-takers, how vulnerable to extremism.

A fiscal cliff deal was cut at the last possible minute, covering a minimal number of issues. It was far from perfect and barely palatable. It was a compromise, and compromises are inherently imperfect. No one likes the whole of it, but they balance the bad parts against the good and see beyond dissension.

As the fiscal cliff votes came down to the wire, many repeated the aphorism: don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. But sadly, we are beyond even that. Now the perfunctory has become the victim of the grueling.

The American people suffered through another moment of manufactured suspense brought on by political malpractice. There was no grand bargain. There was only a begrudging acquiescence.”

Blow goes on to note that the Congress ending on Thursday will be the least productive one in modern history with only 173 public laws past by the end of 2012. Even the “Do Nothing” Congress, which Harry Truman bashed on his way to an electoral victory, enacted 906 laws in their two year period between January 1947 and December 1948. The one main function of Congress, to pass laws, is rendered ineffective by an intransigent group of extremists who are hell-bent on blowing up government itself.


Steps at the U.S. Capitol Building - Washington, D.C.

Now if your goal is to gum up the works of government, one would say that this Congress has done a pretty good job. Many conservatives would be gleeful to see the government shut down and the credit rating of the United States downgraded. But what exactly does that mean for the business community who so dutifully funds the Republican Party?

During the last debt ceiling crisis, in August of 2011, the stock market shaved off over 4 percent of its value, the steepest decline since the start of the recession in 2008. It eroded U.S. GDP growth and slowed the pace of job recovery. With no certainty over fiscal policy, thanks to ideologically rigid politicians, investors are left to seriously wonder whether the U.S. government (i.e. Congress) will make good on its debt obligations. Why would anyone in their right mind invest in a country where every few months there is a new self-inflicted economic crisis?

And let’s be clear on that: the debt ceiling and the so-called “fiscal cliff” are self-inflicted wounds that did not have to happen. In fact, the “fiscal cliff” was created in the aftermath of the debt ceiling debacle of 2011 when Republicans in Congress refused to extend the country’s debt ceiling – even though they had already committed the money in their budgets – unless cuts were made. Now they want to undo the cuts that they themselves had negotiated and extend tax cuts to millionaires. Thankfully, they lost on at least one of those issues but are positioned to yet again drag the country through another economic turmoil over the debt ceiling in roughly two months from now.

Unfortunately, there’s not a simple political solution, either. Many of the Republicans who would be willing to vote for an economically sane approach to governance fear a primary challenge from the right more than they do a general election from the left. This is due in large part thanks to gerrymandered districts, created by politicians in statehouses across the country for political gain to both ensure their party’s control and to protect incumbents. Unless the Supreme Court rules that gerrymandering is unconstitutional (it clearly is a violation of the First Amendment when politicians can silence voters through the lines that they draw) or voters pass state-by-state referendums to create independent map-drawing commissions, we are likely to continue to see a Congress that is inflexible and unresponsive to the demands of voters.


Election Prediction 2012: President, Senate and House

Posted on: November 5th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

The 2012 election cycle has been a long and costly battle against two very different ideologies. By this time tomorrow night we may very well know who the next president will be until January 2017. The most likely outcome based on polling, trends and historical state allegiances portends well for President Obama, Senate Democrats and House Republicans.

President

As I posted on Saturday, President Obama is a heavy favorite to win the Electoral College and thus the presidency. Nothing has changed in the two days since then to disrupt the status quo of the race. In fact, the numbers that have come in since then reinforce a narrow win for the incumbent. Based on the polling average from Pollster.com and on the trends of the race, I predict President Obama to be a 2-3 point favorite in the popular vote and a 332 to 206 favorite in the Electoral College.

For a deeper explanation of where these projections come from I would suggest reading Saturday’s post. The bottom line is that President Obama has a solid base of support in Democratic-leaning states along with consistent leads in a number of swing states (most notably Ohio). Obama has momentum in Florida and Colorado that should be enough to put him over the top in those states on Tuesday night. The map is below:

Senate

After losing six Senate seats in the 2010 election, Democrats looked likely to repeat a decline in their ranks in 2012. It was almost universally accepted that Democrats would lose control of the Senate, given the grim map where they had to defend 23 seats to only 10 for the GOP. A number of incumbent Democratic senators decided to retire in red states, making the situation that much worse for Democrats.

Against all odds, Democrats look poised to actually gain seats after this year’s election. A number of strategic blunders on the part of Republican primary voters, gaffes by candidates and surprisingly strong recruitment by the Democrats has led to a situation where I am predicting a net gain of 2 seats from 53 to 55.

Nothing underlines the Republican Party’s collapse in this year’s Senate races more than Todd Akin, who suggested that the female body had a way to “shut down” an unwanted pregnancy that resulted from rape and thus abortion in such cases was unnecessary. National Republicans pressured Akin to get out of the race but he stayed in and will likely cost their party a seat that they were otherwise likely to pick up from Senator Claire McCaskill. McCaskill is a first-term senator with middling approval ratings who won in the wave election of 2006 with less than 50% of the vote.

Republicans threw away another senate seat when they knocked off Indiana’s long-time senator, Dick Lugar, in a Republican primary. It is still not clear what exactly Lugar did to invoke the wrath of Tea Party conservatives – Lugar remains a stalwart conservative – but their choice of Richard Mourdock has not gone over well in Indiana. Mourdock’s Akin-like comment that God “intends” for pregnancy to occur from rape essentially guaranteed that Joe Donnelly would pick up the seat for Democrats.

A third candidate, Olympia Snowe, decided to retire rather than face the will of far-right Tea Party primary voters. Independent Angus King, who is heavily favored to win Tuesday, will caucus with Democrats. These three seats alone, which were otherwise shoe-ins for the Republican candidates, are the difference between Republicans gaining and losing seats. Democrats will at worst retain their majority on Tuesday and at best gain two seats.

House

Democrats hoped that the gain of over 60 seats for Republicans in 2010 would mean that the tide would fall back and result in a net gain of at least the 25 seats that are needed for Dems to win a majority. It does not appear to be in the cards. The average of polls shows the national popular vote for House races to be neck-and-neck. Gerrymandering by Republican legislatures in a number of large states, including Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, make reaching the necessary 25 seats unlikely. Republicans will retain their majority but Democrats will gain between 5 and 10 seats.

Conclusion

In 2008, I accurately projected the outcome in every state except three: Florida and Indiana (which went for Obama) and Missouri (which went for McCain). Ultimately, I was too conservative in my view of Obama’s performance in 2008. In 2010, I correctly projected the outcome of the country’s Senate races. We’ll see how 2012 turns out in the days to come as ballots are cast and votes are counted. I’ll analyze the results in a new post when all of the data is in. Until then, go out and vote!

*Edit*

A previous version accidentally colored West Virginia blue. The estimated Electoral Vote total of 332 is unaffected by this error.


Health Care Vote Will Hurt Republicans in November

Posted on: March 23rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Now that health care reform has passed both chambers of Congress and is going to be signed into law today by President Obama, the election year political messaging begins. A lot of attention has been given to the 17 House Democrats seeking re-election in districts John McCain won in 2008 after having voted for health care reform. But there are 32 House Republicans that voted against the bill in districts that President Obama won in 2008.

In other words, while Democrats will have to defend their vote in tough districts, nearly double the number of Republicans find themselves in similar situations. Worse yet for the GOP, there is evidence that support for the bill is significantly improving from where it was just a couple months ago when Democrats lost the Massachusetts Senate seat long held by Ted Kennedy.

President Obama’s approval rating on health care stood at 36-54 opposed in January (according to CBS) and was up to 41-51 by this past weekend before the vote took place. That’s a shift of 8 points in about a two month period and that is before the House even passed the bill. Undoubtedly, those numbers will continue to improve as the positive coverage from the bill’s passage continues. The president’s overall job approval is at 49-41 positive, an improvement from 46-41 in January.

What these numbers show is that the negative feelings towards this bill have peaked and the positive feelings are on the way up. As various aspects of the bill begin to be felt relatively quickly, such as kids being able to stay on their parent’s insurance plan until age 26 or the ban on pre-existing conditions, approval will continue to improve. Americans will realize that the Armageddon that Republicans literally said would take place after the bill passed was nothing more than scare tactics.

Not only are calls for repealing the bill ridiculously unrealistic (President Obama would veto any repeal), they also will ring hallow in November. Voters will question why the Republican Party is campaigning on a platform of repealing a ban on pre-existing conditions, filling the Medicare prescription doughnut hole, extending health insurance to 32 million Americans and reducing the deficit by over $1 trillion over the next two decades.

Let’s get back to those 32 House Republicans that voted against health care in districts that President Obama won. Below is a list of all of them:

Judy Biggert IL-13
Brian Bilbray CA-50
Mary Bono Mack CA-45
Ken Calvert CA-44
Dave Camp MI-4
John Campbell CA-48
Anh “Joseph” Cao LA-2
Michael Castle DE-AL
Charles Dent PA-15
David Dreier CA-26
Randy Forbes VA-4
Elton Gallegly CA-24
Jim Gerlach PA-6
Mark Kirk IL-10
Leonard Lance NJ-7
Tom Latham IA-4
Frank LoBiondo NJ-2
Daniel Lungren CA-3
Donald Manzullo IL-16
Thaddeus McCotter MI-11
Howard “Buck” McKeon CA-25
Erik Paulsen MN-3
Thomas Petri WI-6
David Reichert WA-8
Mike Rogers MI-8
Peter Roskam IL-6
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen FL-18
Paul Ryan WI-1
Lee Terry NE-2
Patrick Tiberi OH-12
Fred Upton MI-6
Frank Wolf VA-10
Bill Young FL-10

Two are running for the Senate, Mark Kirk of Illinois and Mike Castle of Delaware. Both of those districts are favored to be won by Democrats. Representative Cao sits in a heavily Democratic New Orleans district and was only elected because the sitting member was a convicted felon. He voted for the House bill last November, but opposed it on Sunday. You can count him as a lame duck. Democrats are sure to win that seat back.

Go down the list and you can see some vulnerable names in Democratic or Democratic-trending districts: Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert in the Chicago suburbs, Jim Gerlach whose failed bid for governor has undoubtedly put him behind the game in his suburban Philadelphia district, Dan Lungren of California went from 62% support in the 2004 election to 49% in 2008.

With the right challengers facing each of these vulnerable Republicans, Democrats have a good chance at winning a few of these seats. The Republican takeover of Congress that conservatives are talking about seems a long way away when you add that to the Democrats which are already favored to pick up Mark Kirk’s seat in Illinois, Mike Castle’s in Delaware and Cao’s in Louisiana.

Despite phony concern coming from Republican leaders over the political impact that health care reform would have on Democrats, most evidence suggests that passing the bill enhances their chances of retaining majority status. The Democratic Party in Congress and President Obama have, without a single Republican vote, passed historic legislation to provide universal health care coverage for Americans. This goal has eluded every president since Tedd Roosevelt over 100 years ago. It’s an achievement that puts them in the history books and on safer political ground than they would have been if Republicans succeeded in killing the bill.

Let me be clear that I do not mean to say that Democrats will gain seats in the midterm election this fall. I believe that we will see modest losses in the House and a handful in the Senate. This falls well within the political history of the president’s party losing seats in a midterm election. Democrats won in places in 2008 that we normally wouldn’t have: conservative districts in Alabama and Idaho, among others. These are likely lost causes in 2010. But the talk of a takeover of both the House and Senate by Republicans is overblown. They will not win either chamber for a long time to come.


Health Care Reform Becomes Law as House Passes Bill

Posted on: March 21st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Democrats scored a major victory on Sunday night as the health care bill, which has been debated for over a year, has finally passed both chambers of Congress and is expected to be signed into law by President Barack Obama shortly. The vote was 219 to 212 with zero Republicans voting in favor. It is an achievement that eluded Presidents Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.

The bill extends insurance to 32 million Americans that previously did not have health insurance, reduces the deficit by over $1 trillion over the next two decades, bans the insurance industry practice of denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions, and bans insurance companies from dropping coverage due to health. While Republicans have complained about a lack of bipartisanship, the bill includes over 200 Republican amendments.


Is America becoming a socialist nation?

Posted on: March 18th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

It was not a common phrase in our lexicon until recently. Only after a black man was nominated and eventually elected president did the term “socialism” resurface to describe the Democratic Party’s leader. Bill Clinton avoided the accusation, as well as Al Gore and John Kerry. “Liberal” or “far left radical” was sufficient for them. But not for Barack Obama. Not for a president that many in white America fear as an illegitimate leader – one that only won 365 electoral votes and 53 percent of the popular vote – thanks to ACORN and falsified birth certificates. [end sarcasm]

It’s a serious charge, though, that I think we write off too quickly. While I would like to think that most Americans are reasonable enough to admit the simple reality that President Obama won the election in a landslide fashion and is indeed an American citizen, large numbers of Republicans come to different conclusions. Only 42 percent of Republicans polled by Research 2000 were found to believe that President Obama was a citizen of the United States. A majority were either convinced that he was not or were unsure.

So what motivates people to believe these fallacies? I believe that there are several causes, not the least of which is race. No one questioned a white president’s citizenship. The second is simply economics. There is a great deal of unease in our country today, largely derived from the economic anxieties that we live in, and rightfully so. But in these uncertain times people often come to conclusions that are, at best, flawed. They need someone to blame for all of their woes. President Obama is an easy target for them. He confirms their suspicions about a black man in the White House (emphasis on white).

I would rather not spend an entire post digressing about people’s (false) suspicions and conspiracy theories. I was invited to participate in a discussion about socialism in America on fire! Radio, an Internet radio program. You can listen to the full episode at this link or just click play on the player below. If you just want to hear what I have to say, you can skip to around 39:00 minutes, but the entire program is interesting:




What exactly is socialism, anyway? The standard dictionary definition of socialism is “a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.” If one wants to have an honest debate about government theory, properly defining terms is an important first step.

President Obama has never advocated for anything remotely close to a “command-and-control” system of government that socialism implies. Indeed, he has said throughout his political career and as president that he is a believer in the free market. At the same time, he has advocated for stronger protections of consumers through reforms of the financial system and health care system. One should not confuse government regulation with government control.

The second point that I would make is that the kinds of programs that have been derided as examples of “socialism”, such as the so-called public option, are already in existence for large portions of the population. Seniors benefit from “socialized medicine” in the form of Medicare. Veterans benefit from Veteran’s Affairs hospitals. The poor benefit from Medicaid. This is not a new concept in American politics. Protecting those that are vulnerable in society has been a priority among Democrats for decades.

Many of the complaints from some that have called President Obama a socialist were actually policies enacted during the Bush administration. TARP, otherwise known as the “bailout” for Wall Street, was a policy pushed by President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson in September 2008. It was Secretary Paulson that asked Congress for near limitless control over hundreds of billions of dollars with no oversight to speak of. The “auto bailout” began under President Bush as well. $17.4 billion was given to GM and Chrysler during the last month of the Bush administration (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16740.html).

The bottom line is that the country is not moving towards socialism. We live in a democracy where elections have consequences. Those upset with President Obama’s policies vocally opposed him before he was elected and they lost. We have a long tradition in this country of enacting programs that protect the poor and those in need, as well as regulate industries that abuse their power. Those policies will undoubtedly continue to be advanced by President Obama and Democrats in Congress, as well as future Democratic politicians.


California Gov/Sen, Illinois Senate Polls

Posted on: February 1st, 2010 by Kyle. | 2 Comments

There are interesting new poll numbers out of the states of California and Illinois. Over the weekend, the Public Policy Institute of California released polling numbers for the upcoming June 8 primary both in the race for Governor and Senate. The Democrats are favored to win both races as Republicans beat each other up in bloody primary battles. The GOP primary for governor at this point is not much of a race at all, with former eBay CEO Meg Whitman garnering 41% vs. 11% for Teabag candidate Steve Poizner. Since former Rep. Campbell dropped out of the race for governor, Whitman’s lead has grown.

In the race to challenge incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, Republicans have three candidates to choose from. Among them are Campbell, who switched from the governor’s race to the Senate race. It appears that was a good move as he currently leads his two rivals, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Teabag candidate Chuck DeVore. PPIC finds that Campbell has 27%, 16% for Fiorina, and a distant third for DeVore at 8%. Fiorina has positioned herself as a moderate alternative to the ultra-conservative DeVore, but has not gained much traction. While Fiorina was the early favorite, particularly of the establishment, that is clearly no longer the case.

The general election is shaping up to be a Democratic win, though, as President Obama enjoys a 61% approval rating in the state (34% disapproval). That’s considerably higher than much of the rest of the country and indicates that the party’s coalition is holding up – at least in the Golden State. Compare that to Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger whose approval rating is in George W. Bush territory – only 30% approve and 60% disapprove. Barbara Boxer has an approval rating just below 50% at 49% with 44% saying that they disapprove.

The other major poll out is of the Illinois primary for Senate, which will be held tomorrow. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, the State Treasurer, leads the pack with 31% support, compared to 23% for Hoffman, and 23% for Jackson. The Republican Party is set to nominate the moderate Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, a Chicago suburbanite that voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade bill but now says that he opposes it. While his support for those policies helped him in his Democratic-leaning Chicago suburb district, it is not popular at all with Republicans. That said, Kirk manages to poll better than both Hoffman and Jackson in this heavily Democratic state. Either of them winning the primary puts this seat once held by President Obama in serious jeopardy. The general election polls are below:

42% Giannoulias, 34% Kirk
37% Kirk, 36% Hoffman
38% Kirk, 36% Jackson

While Giannoulias leads Kirk by a healthy 8%, his two competitors are in extremely tight races with Kirk. Also decided on Tuesday will be the candidates to replace Mark Kirk in his suburban Chicago district, as well as competitive primaries for governor in both parties.


Support for Public Option on the Rise

Posted on: October 19th, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

A newly published poll from the Washington Post and ABC News shows that support for the public option is on the rise. “On the issue that has been a flash point in the national debate, 57 percent of all Americans now favor a public insurance option, while 40 percent are opposed. Support has risen since mid-August, when a bare majority, 52 percent, said they favored it,” the poll found. That’s a very comfortable majority that Democrats enjoy, including among independents.

The poll also found more good news for Democrats that favor a public option. A majority of the public supports passing a public option even if it lacks any Republican votes at all:

Faced with a basic strategic choice that soon may confront the administration and Democratic congressional leaders, a slim majority of Americans, 51 percent, would prefer a reform plan that included some form of government insurance for people who cannot get affordable private coverage even if it had no GOP support in Congress. Thirty-seven percent would rather have a bipartisan plan without such a choice. Republicans and Democrats are on opposite sides of this question, with independents preferring legislation with a public option and without Republican support by 52 to 35 percent.

It’s clear where the public stands. Now Democrats needs to listen to those that elected them to change the system. Republicans will oppose any healthcare reform bill, whether it has a public option or not. We should put forward the strongest possible plan and that would be one that includes a competitor to private insurers. That is the only way costs will be driven down while protecting consumers.


Olbermann Combats the “Deathers”

Posted on: August 10th, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

The conspiracy driven “birther” movement surrounding President Obama’s birth certificate has been well covered lately on the news. Many Republicans do not feel that the current president is legitimate, despite his overwhelming victory in November. In their racist desperation, they have latched on to this idea that Obama was born in Kenya, not in Hawaii, and is thus ineligible to be president.

A similar group of conservative wackjobs known as the “deathers” are floating the idea that President Obama’s healthcare reform will lead to euthanizing of elderly people. Former VP candidate (and recently resigned governor of Alaska) Sarah Palin went so far as calling the president’s plan “evil”. The fuss that Republicans are stirring up comes from a provision that would prevent another Terri Shiavo-like situation where the government steps in to determine whether a person should live or die (like the Republicans in Congress and Bush attempted). As the AP reports:

A provision in the House bill written by Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., would allow Medicare to pay doctors for voluntary counseling sessions that address end-of-life issues. The conversations between doctor and patient would include living wills, making a close relative or a trusted friend your health care proxy, learning about hospice as an option for the terminally ill and information about pain medications for people suffering chronic discomfort.

Ironically, it was George H. W. Bush’s administration that instituted a policy that requires hospitals to ask patients if they have a living will. Facts are nasty things. Of course the Republican Party never let that get in their way. Keith Olbermann tackled the issue in a Special Comment on Monday night:


Sotomayor Confirmed as First Hispanic Supreme Court Justice Amid Token GOP Support

Posted on: August 6th, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

Sonia Sotomayor was today confirmed by the United States Senate by a 68-31 vote (Senator Kennedy expressed support but was unable to attend the vote due to illness). Justice Sotomayor will be the first Latino ever to sit on the Supreme Court. She is replacing Justice David Souter after he announced his retirement in June. Senate Republicans gave token support to Sotomayor with three fourths of them voting “no” on the nomination, among them the so-called “maverick” John McCain. All of the Senate’s Democrats supported her nomination. The Republicans voting in favor of her nomination include:

Lamar Alexander (Tennessee)
Kit Bond (Missouri)
Susan Collins (Maine)
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina)
Judd Gregg (New Hampshire)
Richard Lugar (Indiana)
Mel Martinez (Florida)
Olympia Snowe (Maine)
George Voinovich (Ohio)

Four years ago Justice John Roberts, who has proven to backtrack on his promise to follow judicial precedent, was confirmed by the Senate with 78 votes, including 22 Democrats. It’s a shame that Republicans chose politics (perhaps it has something to do with the NRA’s threat that a vote in favor would affect their rating of them) instead of supporting a well qualified Latino woman. Four of those Republicans that supported her are retiring. Perhaps they felt free to vote based on qualifications and not just politics.


Olbermann Criticizes “Legislators For Sale”

Posted on: August 4th, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

Keith Olbermann of MSNBC has made a name for himself with his Special Comment commentary pieces (which unlike Fox News, MSNBC at least distinguishes news from opinion). This week he took on members of Congress for being beholden to the insurance industry. His aim was squarely at Republicans, although a few Blue Dog Democrats also felt his wrath.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy