Posts Tagged ‘race’

Run or Not, Chris Christie Won’t Be Republican Nominee

Posted on: October 3rd, 2011 by Kyle. | No Comments

The media darling of the minute is New Jersey governor Chris Christie. You can’t turn on a television news program without a “journalist” talk about whether or not Christie will get in the race, even with no new information. The man known for his grumpy demeanor is unlikely to win a lot of Republican votes if he decides to pull the gun and run. While I don’t think that Christie will run, I take the man at his word that he is neither prepared to be president nor has the “fire in the belly“, I can confidently say that he will not be the Republican nominee should he change his mind.

Rick Perry has shown what a late entry into a race can do to your reputation. While Perry quickly vaulted to the top of the polls, the result of a Republican base that is hungry for anyone with charisma to challenge Romney, it quickly became obvious that the over ten year record that Perry had as governor of Texas was a treasure trove of potential mud. While Christie has only been governor of New Jersey for fewer than two years, his positions will be quite problematic for him among the Republican base that is decidedly more conservative than it was in 2008.

While Christie isn’t a liberal by any stretch, many Republicans would be hard to identify him as anything short of it when they compare him to someone like Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann. Case in point, Christie supports civil unions, called people that believe Sharia law is a threat to the U.S. “crazy”, believes that climate change is man-made, and holds a tolerant stance on immigration. In other words, he’s a moderate Northeastern Republican that has essentially gone the way of the Dodo. The only other Northeastern Republican in the race, Mitt Romney, is likely to be the main casualty of a Christie entrance. Just don’t expect Christie to win anything other than New York and New Jersey.

Races to Watch on Election Night

Posted on: October 31st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Election Night is drawing nearer, so I thought that a list of races to watch would be beneficial to those not terribly familiar with individual races and national dynamics. Instead of relying on what CNN or MSNBC tell you on Election Night, take control by tracking a few key races that could determine which party controls the next Congress. We’ve made it easy by focusing in on five House and Senate races from across the country.

House Races

Out of all the states where Republicans are looking to capture House seats, perhaps Indiana is the best indicator of whether Republicans will win the House and by what margin. For starters, it will be the first state to report its vote totals. Polls close at 6 Eastern, although part of the state is on Central, so the results won’t begin coming until 7 p.m.

Indiana 9 is a district in Southern Indiana that straddles the Kentucky border along the Ohio River and includes college towns like Bloomington, home of Indiana University. Democrat Baron Hill is the incumbent here. He voted for the stimulus package and health care bill, but against the Wall Street bailout and cap-and-trade.

The district has swapped between parties a number of times this decade. Hill was elected in 1998 51% to 48%, re-elected in 2000 and managed to survive in 2002, a rough year for Democrats when they lost seats to the president’s party (this rarely happens, even though both 1998 and 2002 were exceptions). Hill lost in 2004 by 2,000 votes to Mike Sodrel, his opponent from 2002. Two years later, in 2006, Hill ran again and won against Sodrel as Democrats captured the House. Not satisfied with defeat, Sodrel ran a fourth time in 2008, losing to Hill by 20 points.

It is expected that this will be a tight race. Polls show that Hill is essentially tied with his opponent at 45 percent. While that is not where an incumbent wants to be in a year like 2010, it isn’t an insurmountable challenge, either. If Hill wins, the Democrats probably hold on to the House. If he loses, the Republicans will likely win the House; the only question is by what margin. That’s where the next district comes into play.

Indiana 2 is a Northern Indiana district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by 10 points after supporting Bush in 2004. This is a swing district at the presidential level, but favors Democrats at the Congressional level. Blue Dog Democrat Joe Donnelly has represented Indiana 2 since 2006. After losing in 2004 to Republican Chris Chocola, he succeeded by an impressive 8 point margin in 2006. In 2008, Donnelly won with 67 percent support as Obama carried Indiana for the first time since 1964. While Republicans do not need to win Indiana 2 to win the House, it would signify a sizable wave in the range of 55 to 60 seats.

The bottom line: It is hard to see how the Republicans can win the House if they cannot manage to win Indiana 9. While Obama improved his performance over John Kerry in every single county in Indiana, Southern Indiana was still McCain territory. These voters should be among the more skeptical of the current administration and more likely to vote Republican. Indiana 2 is anchored by St. Joseph County, which is strongly Democratic. If Republicans win this seat, it will be a barometer of how many seats their majority is, not whether they will win a majority.

Senate Races

The Senate will be a lot easier to monitor than the House whether it is about to switch party hands or not. For one reason, the House has 435 individual races, around 100 of which are truly competitive to any degree. The Senate has around a dozen truly competitive races, making it that much easier to track. The races that you will want to watch are the Toss-Ups. To make things easier to track, we are assuming Republican advantages in a number of states (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, etc.). The “Must Win” states are ones that Republicans must win in order to have a chance at a majority. Instead of listing each of them, we are going to focus on the two most crucial. The “2 out of 3″ states are named such because Republicans will need to win 2 out of 3 to gain a majority, assuming they win the “Must Win” states:

Must Win

Illinois is the best early indicator of whether Republicans have a chance of winning control of the Senate. Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are in a tight race for President Obama’s former Senate seat. The president was in Chicago on Saturday to rally the Democratic base near his home in Hyde Park at the University of Chicago. Losing this seat will mean that Republicans are having a good night. On the other hand, if Democrats manage to hold onto Illinois, it will shut the door on Republican chances at capturing the Senate.

Colorado is expected to be one of the closest of all the contests on Tuesday. Senator Michael Bennet was appointed by Governor Bill Ritter to fill the seat of Ken Salazar, whom President Obama tapped to be his Secretary of the Interior. Had Salazar been on the ballot, winning his seat in 2004 against the odds, he probably would have easily won re-election. Bennet has run a good campaign, though, and is facing a far-right candidate in Ken Buck. If Republicans win Colorado and Illinois, it means that they are well on their way to knocking off Harry Reid in nearby Nevada and could gain control of the Upper Chamber. If Democrats win Colorado, it once again shuts the door on that possibility.

2 out of 3

Washington could be the state that decides whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate. Democrats may lose Illinois, Colorado and a number of other states, but hold on to Washington. The reverse will not hold true, though. If Democrats hold on to Illinois, Colorado, West Virginia, etc., Republicans will not win in Washington state.

Even with a win in Washington, Republicans will need to sweep the board in every other Toss-Up state, and win in California or West Virginia. The math would look something like this: Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The bottom line: The Republicans essentially have to sweep everything in order to gain the majority: seats that Lean Republican, Toss-ups, and Lean Democrat. They need a net pick-up of 10 seats to get the 51 seat majority that would be needed to break Vice President Joe Biden’s tie. A 50/50 split in the Senate is not out of the question, as is what happened in 2000, although Democrats would retain the majority in that situation instead of Republicans.

Top of Ballot May Help House Dems in Some States

Posted on: October 27th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Even people that are not all that familiar with politics have heard of presidential coattails. We saw it quite clearly in 2008 when Democrats won marginal to conservative districts on the back of President Obama’s enormous turnout effort throughout the country. While that cannot be replicated this year (the president is not on the ballot), Democrats can point to a number of key Governor and Senate races where the top of the ballot could make the difference in House races.

California

Meg Whitman dumped over $150 million into the governor’s race this year, yet she trails Democrat and former governor Jerry Brown by double digits. She came out against employers that hired undocumented workers, but had a maid for ten years that was in the country illegally. This basically killed any chance she had of becoming governor.

In the Senate race, Democrat Barbara Boxer has consistently held a narrow lead over conservative Republican Carly Fiorina. A Republican has not won a Senate race in California since Pete Wilson in 1984. With polls moving towards Boxer in the final days, it is hard to see this 26 year old streak ending in 2010. As a result, Democratic House candidates can expect a bump from a strong top of the ballot.

This could help with races in California 11 and California 20 where polls show tight races for Representatives McNerney and Costa. Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, who finds herself in a tough fight in traditionally Republican Orange County, may also benefit. The only Republican that looks vulnerable is Dan Lungren of California 3 near Sacramento.

Connecticut

As I posted yesterday, Connecticut’s Senate seat currently held by retiring Democrat Chris Dodd is now strongly favored to remain in Democratic hands. The race has moved into a double-digit advantage for state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon. Democrats are also favored to win the governor’s mansion, which is currently held by a Republican. Winning both of these races should boost Democratic Representatives Murphy and Himes.

New York

Andrew Cuomo is the overwhelming favorite to win Tuesday’s gubernatorial race against Tea Party candidate Carl Paladino, who suggested that he would “take out” a reporter on tape. His over-the-top style is likely to hurt Republicans down the ballot and possibly cost Republicans a pick-up of 2 or 3 House seats in the state. The two Senate races (one of them a special election for the seat formerly held by Hillary Clinton) are blowout races as well.

Republicans are certain to pick-up the seat of former Congressman Eric Massa, who resigned in disgrace last December. Democrat Scott Murphy of New York 20, John Hall of New York 19, Bill Owens of New York 23, and Michael Arcuri of New York 24 all find themselves in close races. They could benefit from strong top-of-the-ballot performance on the Democratic side.

Pennsylvania

Polls had Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey up by double-digits not more than a couple weeks ago. Today, the two are virtually tied. While Toomey may yet win this statewide race, he will likely benefit most from a Republican surge in districts where the party is already the strongest. The fact that Democrat Joe Sestak has managed to close the gap means that Democrats in marginal districts around the Philly suburbs could see a boost as well.
Democrats are currently likely to lose at least two seats in Pennsylvania, districts 3 and 11, where incumbents trail by double digits. The Democrats most likely to benefit are ones in close races: Chris Carney of Pennsylvania 10, Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania 8, Mark Critz of Pennsylvania 12.

This is not to suggest that the top of the ballot will save all of these candidates or even benefit the Democratic Party universally across the country. There are some states where gubernatorial races may hurt Democrats (Arizona for instance) and the same for Senate races (Republican’s expected win will drag down House Democratic candidates in Indiana). It may, however, make the difference in close races where more high profile races for statewide office help House incumbents.

Election Projection 2010: Northeast Senate Seats

Posted on: October 20th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

We’re now just two weeks away from the midterm elections. Today, we’re going to have a look at the Northeast:

Connecticut
Incumbent: Chris Dodd (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Linda McMahon (R), Richard Blumenthal (D)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Linda McMahon joins several other wealthy Republican businesswomen that have run for office this year (California’s Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are the other two). Each of them appears likely to lose in Democratically-inclined states. McMahon made her wealth as an executive for WWE (yes, that McMahon). Blumenthal has made a point that the company’s health record is not all that great. In fact, it’s quite poor. Several wrestlers died either while McMahon was the leader of the WWE or shortly after leaving the company. Blumenthal has problems of his own, taking credit for serving in Vietnam, when in fact, he was only in the military at the time, but not stationed in Vietnam. Still, even though both candidates have character flaws, Connecticut is a Democratic state and will likely elect Blumenthal. Polls show him leading anywhere from five points to double digits.

Delaware
Incumbent: Ted Kaufman (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Christine O’Donnell (R), Chris Coons (D)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Perhaps no Senate race has garnered more media coverage than Delaware. In a normal year, it wouldn’t get any attention at all. That was until political neophyte and Tea Party darling Christine O’Donnell knocked off Congressman and former governor Mike Castle, a moderate, to win the Republican Party’s primary. Castle was an overwhelming favorite to win the general election and give the Republicans a pick-up. Now the odds have flipped. Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold on to the former seat of Vice President Joe Biden. If Republicans manage to win 9 Senate seats this year, O’Donnell and the Tea Party will be vilified for handing the Senate to the Democrats.

Maryland
Incumbent: Barbara Mikulski (D)
Challenger(s): Eric Wargotz (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Not a whole lot to say about Maryland’s Senate race. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Mikulski will easily get re-elected over Republican challenger Eric Wargotz. The only question is by how much. The real race to watch in Maryland is for governor, where incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley finds himself in a rematch with the man whom he defeated in 2006, former governor Bob Ehrlich.

New Hampshire
Incumbent: Judd Gregg (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Kelly Ayotte (R), Paul Hodes (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

New Hampshire was a state that was trending towards the Democrats. While George W. Bush won the state in 2000, John Kerry picked it up in 2004, and Barack Obama improved upon that in 2008. Democrats won both House seats and the governor’s mansion in 2006 and a Senate seat in 2008, yet polling shows that Republicans are likely to pick up at least one (possibly both) of the state’s House seats and hold on to their remaining Senate seat. Paul Hodes, the Democratic Congressman running for the Senate, is trailing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte by anywhere from 5 to 15 points. Hodes saw a mini-surge in his standing when former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed Ayotte, but it does not appear to have helped him enough.

New York (A)
Incumbent: Chuck Schumer (D)
Challenger(s): Jay Townsend (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

New York is having two Senate races this year: one is the seat held by Chuck Schumer and the other is the former seat of Hillary Clinton, now held by Kirsten Gillibrand. Both Democrats are expected to win quite easily. Schumer has over $24 million in the bank and his Republican opponent has not even raised $100,000. If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid goes down in November, Schumer has shown interest for his job and would likely face off against Illinois Senator Dick Durbin.

New York (B)
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Challenger(s): Joseph DioGuardi (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Kirsten Gillibrand is an upstate New York politician and the incumbent Senator of her seat. She was appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat after she resigned to become Secretary of State. Gillibrand is conservative by New York standards, but has moved to the left since joining the Upper Chamber. As a former member of the House, she road the Democratic wave of 2006 to victory. While Gillibrand is the favorite over former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi, this will be a closer race than Schumer’s. Nonetheless, national Republicans are not putting any money into the race.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Arlen Specter (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Pat Toomey (R), Joe Sestak (D)
Prediction: Toss-up

There have been many odd races across the country so far this year. Pennsylvania was one of the first. Senator Arlen Specter, at the time a Republican, switched parties after he learned that he would face a challenge from far-right conservative Pat Toomey, a former congressman that challenged Specter in 2004. Toomey lost that race, but not by much, and was favored to beat Specter the second time. Specter switched parties and ran as a Democrat, hoping that no one would notice his voting record. While Specter voted reliably with the Democrats following his switch, Democratic voters had a choice of electing a real Democrat when Joe Sestak jumped into the race. Sestak had run in 2006 and won a Philadelphia area district. He was the underdog throughout most of the race, but brilliantly used ads showing Specter talking about he switched parties to be re-elected. Now Sestak finds himself in the underdog position yet again. However, polls have shown a tightening of the race with a couple even showing Sestak in the lead. Sestak also has a money advantage over Toomey in these final weeks.

Adjustments

Since our last update we have seen several changes in the Senate outlook, each of them at the expense of Democrats. Some states, such as Wisconsin, have moved from Leans Democrat to Toss-up. West Virginia, which was rated as Likely Democrat, is now Leans Democrat. Nevada is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; Florida Toss-Up to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Ohio from Toss-Up to Likely Republican; Arizona from Leans Republican to Likely Republican; Colorado from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; and Missouri from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. We’ll detail a few of these changes below:

Colorado – Appointed Senator Michael Bennet has struggled to fend off a challenge from Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. The outspoken Buck has said that he opposes abortion in all cases, including rape and incest. He has also said that being gay is a choice, not something that you are born with. Candidates like this would not normally win in a state like Colorado, but with a bad economy, voters are desperate.

Florida – Democrat Kendrick Meek and Governor Charlie Crist, a former Republican turned independent, have been nuking each other over the airwaves. Republican Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio has benefitted from this sniping and will probably squeak by with less than 50 percent of the vote. It isn’t possible for a divided left to win in a swing state like Florida. All Rubio needs to do is carry the Republican vote heavily and he wins.

Ohio – Ohio is a state that has simply gone out of reach for Democrats. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher is the Democratic candidate and Rob Portman the Republican, a former Congressman and Budget Director in the Bush administration. Fisher is a poor campaigner and fundraiser, while Portman has benefitted from the Bush donor list. National Democrats have pulled the plug on their financial support of Fisher, putting it in states where they think they can win (like Colorado and nearby Pennsylvania). On the other hand, Democratic hopes have improved in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Incumbent governor Ted Strickland has at least a 50/50 chance of winning re-election over Republican John Kasich.

Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:

Map

Ellsworth Goes on Offense Against Coats

Posted on: June 19th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

You would be mistaken if you thought that Democrats were going to quietly cede Evan Bayh’s Senate seat. Brad Ellsworth, the Democratic nominee to replace Evan Bayh in the Senate, is going on an offensive against his Republican opponent Dan Coats. The Ellsworth campaign released a “campaign report” to supporters by e-mail. It’s a six page PDF document that basically outlines the arguments that they will be making in the fall.

“Dan Coats chose to lobby for unsavory entities such as Bank of America, which participated in some of the worst excesses that triggered the financial crisis, and Harvest Natural Resources, an oil company owned by the socialist country of Venezuela,” the campaign report reads. They also point out that Coats received only 39 percent of the vote among Republicans. While Coats won the GOP primary, 61 percent of Republicans chose someone else.

It was already clear prior to this that Ellsworth would be running as the former sheriff that he was rather than the Congressman from Southern Indiana that he currently is. It was also pretty obvious that Dan Coats’ role as a lobbyist for banking interests and foreign governments would play heavily into the campaign. You can count on this race in Indiana between Ellsworth and Coats to be one of the most hard fought in the nation this fall.

Democrats Take Lead in Ohio Senate Race

Posted on: April 2nd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

While this election cycle is almost certain to return fewer Democratic members to the House and Senate, Ohio is shaping up to be a state where Democrats have a good chance of picking up a seat currently held by a Republican. George Voinovich, a former governor, is retiring from the Senate this year. Open seats are traditionally much more competitive than seats with an incumbent.

Much of this cycle the Democrats have trailed Republican Rob Portman, a former Bush administration official, by a few points. That appears to have ended with a slight lead for both Democratic candidates for Senate. The reversal of fortune comes just weeks after the health care reform bill became law. President Obama’s approval rating has also edged up in the state, as has Governor Strickland’s, a Democrat.

“In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman 41 – 37 percent, reversing a 40 – 37 percent Portman lead February 24. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner edges Portman 38 – 37 percent, reversing a 40 – 35 percent Republican lead,” Quinnipiac University found. While a 4 point lead and 1 point lead for the Democratic candidates is not comfortable, it is a pretty big swing in the matter of a short period of time (7 points towards Lee Fisher and 6 points towards Jennifer Brunner).

Illinois Governor’s Race in Dead Heat as Primary Nears

Posted on: January 23rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Democratic Governor Pat Quinn of Illinois is in a fight for his political life as he faces Comptroller Dan Hynes for the party’s nomination. Quinn, who became governor after Rod Blagojevich was impeached and removed from office, is running a state that has serious fiscal problems. In this economy, that is not something that is a rarity, but Illinois is a large state and large states have even bigger budget holes to fill.

The Chicago Tribune polled the race, which is set for February 2, 2010. Governor Quinn leads with 44% support, while Dan Hynes trails by only 4 points at 40% support. There are a large number of voters that are still undecided, leaving the race wide open. If Dan Hynes sounds like a familiar name, it is because he ran against Barack Obama in the Democratic Senate primary in 2004.

The Republicans are also going to the polls on February 2 to determine their candidate for governor. Andy McKenna, the former Republican Party Chairman in Illinois, has a tentative lead of 19% over Jim Ryan, who is staking 18% of the vote. Kirk Dillard, a former judge and current member of the Illinois State Senate, trails with 14% of the vote. Dillard is notable for having supported President Obama during the 2008 presidential campaign, being featured in an ad in Iowa.

With the Blagojevich scandal and budget cuts, one would think that the Republicans would have a decent shot at winning the Governor’s Mansion in Illinois. However, the GOP has an extremely weak bench in the state with zero statewide elected officials and dwindling members in the House. Democrats are looking to pick up Republican Mark Kirk’s House seat, a suburban Chicago district that went for Barack Obama, as he runs for the Senate in 2010. Either Quinn or Hynes would undoubtedly be favorites in the fall against a weak field of Republicans.

Observations on the Gates Arrest Controversy

Posted on: August 1st, 2009 by Kyle. | No Comments

It has now been several weeks since the controversy over a white police officer arresting a black professor in his own home for disorderly conduct has emerged in the national spotlight. I have so far kept quiet on the subject, but feel the need to speak out having seen the reaction from the national media and fellow citizens. Before I continue, though, the story needs some context.

The professor in question is Henry Louis Gates Jr. of Harvard. Returning home from a trip to China, the professor found that he had locked himself out of the house and forced his way in. A neighbor, who evidently did not recognize the man, called the police. When the police arrived they asked the professor to step outside of his house. According to reports from Boston, the professor presented his driver’s license as well as a Harvard ID, yet the police arrested him anyway.

This is not the first incident to happen, either. According to the Boston Globe, Professor S. Allen Counter of Harvard “faced a similar situation himself. The well-known neuroscience professor, who is also black, was stopped by two Harvard police officers in 2004 after being mistaken for a robbery suspect as he crossed Harvard Yard. They threatened to arrest him when he could not produce identification.”

The national media picked up the Gates controversy almost immediately. A debate raged on the airwaves as to whether the police had racially profiled the professor, whether the arrest was appropriate and whether Professor Gates should have just “shut his mouth”. President Obama, giving a press conference on healthcare, was asked a question on the subject at the tail end of the press conference. Instead of avoiding the question, he responded in defense of the professor.

This created an uproar among conservative Republicans, who went so far as demanding an apology to the police officer on the floor of the United States House of Representatives. The Republican Party response was to quickly politicize the event. Glenn Beck of Fox News went on national television calling President Obama a “racist” that had a “deep-seated hatred for white people.”

Inconveniently for the Republican Party, the law is on the side of the professor – not the officer’s. The charges were dropped for a reason. They would not have held in a court of law. As some have suggested, “running your mouth”, is not grounds for arrest when you are inside of your own home. The police overstepped their bounds and the officer should have apologized. Period. End of story. After the officer established that Mr. Gates was the lawful owner of the home he should have left it at that.

I think that a part of this has to do with the fact that it occurred in Massachusetts. Had this happened at say, the University of South Carolina, Alabama or Georgia, I think that the public would be more sympathetic with the professor. The white Southern cop would have immediately been labeled a racist and that would have been that. Because it occurred in liberal Massachusetts, it is immediately assumed that racism does not exist in the North.

Reality has it that racism exists everywhere. I am not saying that the police officer himself is a racist. I don’t know the guy. Clearly he acted in a manner that raises suspicions over his conduct. He should, at the very least, be investigated and perhaps disciplined for his actions. This won’t happen, of course, since our culture sympathizes with police and immediately assumes the guilt of minorities. In the case of Mr. Gates, perhaps it would have been wise for the professor to take this to civil court. It might be the only way to get the full truth of what actually happened.

America Won Last Night, But Gays Lost

Posted on: November 5th, 2008 by Kyle. | No Comments

With the election of the first African American president, Barack Obama, America won in last night’s election. Not only will he be the first black president, he will also be the first Democrat to win a majority of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976. With not all of the vote yet counted, Obama stands at 52% to 46% for John McCain. After eight years of enduring the worst presidency in United States history, thank God hope and change beat hate and fear.

We have a lot to celebrate from yesterday’s results, and a lot to be disappointed about as well. The election of Barack Obama as president confirms that we, as a nation, have come a long way since the civil rights movement that gave African Americans voting protections, ended segregation in the South and punished those that commit hate crimes.

While the Civil War was won nearly one hundred and fifty years ago, the electoral map of 2008 vividly displays the divide between North and South. Yet for the first time since 1964, the state of Indiana joined its Midwestern neighbors in backing a Democrat for president. This is astounding in itself, as Obama managed to win heavily white rural counties, including those in Southern Indiana, which were once a hotbed of KKK activity. But it was the counties that include South Bend, Lafayette, Bloomington, Gary and Indianapolis that delivered 15%+ victories to help Obama win a state that George W. Bush carried by 21% in 2004.

He also won in the Southern states of Virginia, which like Indiana has not voted for a Democrat since 1964, North Carolina and Florida. The growth of these states in recent years has brought young professionals from all over the country to seek jobs and a new way of life in cities like Richmond, Charlotte, Orlando and Tampa Bay. Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi were the closest that they have been since 1996. The “Solid South” in the next few years will begin to be seeing a little more blue.

At the same time as Americans celebrated the election of the first black president, a new class of citizens came under assault. Gay Americans suffered major setbacks as discrimination was written into the constitutions of Arizona, California and Florida. Proposition 8 in California, which passed 52% to 48%, will reverse the California Supreme Court decision earlier this year that legalized gay marriage in the state. With the help of a massive effort from the Mormon Church, who literally flooded the state with volunteers to pass Proposition 8, Californians singled out a class of their fellow citizens as second class by revoking their right to legally marry.

For those that voted for Proposition 8 and others like it, how does a gay person’s marriage affect you? Proponents of banning gay marriage claimed that society would go into chaos, yet that hasn’t exactly happened in Massachusetts, California, Canada or European countries where gay marriage is legalized. The argument against gay marriage is based in religious doctrine and has no place in determining our laws.

For those of you that find yourself on the fence or are confused about the issue, let me explain something that is vitally important for you to know: legalizing gay marriage DOES NOT mean that your church will have to perform gay weddings. It would be unconstitutional for the state to tell a church what they have to do. The question here is whether a gay couple has the legal right, under state law, to civil marriage. If you picture in your head a ceremony and then picture going to the courthouse for a wedding license, the only thing that is affected is the piece of paper that you receive from the state. Gay marriage guarantees equal rights under the law for gay couples. It does not mean that churches will have to perform the wedding ceremony.

The fact that a simple majority can alter the constitution of a state to embed hateful and discriminatory policies towards one group of Americans should be alarming to everyone. I am a strong advocate for your right to practice religion as you want. But that does not give anyone the right to tell me that I can not marry the person that I love. For America, November 4, 2008 will be a day that one group of Americans took a step forward and another group took a step back. The hopes and dreams of a nation now ride on the actions of a newly elected president and Congress that are more sympathetic to the needs of its people than the Republicans and George Bush.

Fox News Attacks Obama

Posted on: March 21st, 2008 by Kyle. | No Comments

The second part of “Fox Attacks! Obama” is up on YouTube. It shows how Fox News has a track record of attacking Barack Obama’s patriotism, religion, race, name and even comparisons to Hitler. Yep, the “Fair and Balanced” channel is engaging in character assassination.

That video goes to show why Fox News is not a source that many college professors will allow you to use for a paper. Anyone who works for Fox News should never be employed by another news network. You cannot hire a tabloid journalist and expect them to become a professional.