Posts Tagged ‘president obama’


Obama Backstabs Seniors with Proposed Social Security Cuts

Posted on: April 6th, 2013 by Kyle. | No Comments

Voters who cast their ballot for Barack Obama in November have a right to be angry. After criticizing Mitt Romney as a “reverse Robin Hood” and deriding Paul Ryan’s budget plan as “social Darwinism” (a plan which would privatize Medicare, costing the average senior an extra $6,350 in out-of-pocket medical expenses), the president has proposed a “compromise” budget that would take the ax to Social Security.

“Disguised as [a] deficit reduction plan, it’s really an attempt to impose a radical vision on our country. It’s nothing but thinly-veiled Social Darwinism. It’s antithetical to our entire history as a land of opportunity and upward mobility for everyone who’s willing to work for it — a place where prosperity doesn’t trickle down from the top, but grows outward from the heart of the middle class. And by gutting the very things we need to grow an economy that’s built to last — education and training; research and development — it’s a prescription for decline,” the president described Paul Ryan’s budget during the campaign.

Now the president takes his own swing at social Darwinism. Politicians in Washington have found a nice new term for cuts to Social Security. They call it “chained CPI“, which would reduce cost of living adjustments (COLA) to less than inflation. The chart below reflects different COLA projections: blue represents a more generous COLA for the elderly due to higher health costs, red is the current model, and green represents chained CPI.

The president pretended to be a defender of the poor and middle class in the campaign, declaring that “no current beneficiaries should see their basic benefits reduced” and “the administration will not accept an approach that slashes benefits for future generations.” Now that he has won re-election on a mandate to preserve both Social Security and Medicare, the president has reversed course and is looking to strike a “grand bargain” with Congressional Republicans on deficit reduction. The problem is that he plans on doing so not by addressing the main drivers of our deficit – the bloated military budget which is rapidly approaching an unsustainable trillion dollars a year or historically low tax rates – but instead by targeting the very program that defines the modern Democratic Party.

President Obama AARP

Forty-four percent of seniors would live in poverty if Social Security were not in existence today. It is a vital program for the well-being of this nation’s most vulnerable citizens. It has greatly reduced the incidences of homelessness and premature death.

Any tampering of the Social Security system should keep these facts at the forefront of discussion. But in Washington, the impact that cuts have is often one of the least concerns. Many politicians, especially on the right, see Social Security as just another line on the federal budget.

This is a problem for a number of reasons. Social Security is a program that is fully financed by beneficiaries. Social Security is a retirement insurance program that you pay into your entire life. It is a guaranteed benefit, a social contract that our government has had since the New Deal.

Second, a quick look at the budget will show that Social Security does not contribute to the budget deficit and has not for decades. In fact, the federal government has raided the Social Security Trust Fund to pay for things such as wars, tax cuts and stimulus measures. Amazingly, $2.7 trillion was owed by the federal government to the Social Security Trust Fund in 2011, according to a Trustee report.

In other words, the government has taken your retirement money to pay for its pet projects. The Afghanistan and Iraq wars, for instance, are estimated to cost a stunningly high $4 to $6 trillion over the long haul due to veteran medical costs and interest on the debt. Now politicians in Washington want to add insult to injury by cutting benefits to retirees after they blew their life’s savings on everything except for Social Security.

As is typical in Washington parlance, instead of calling chained CPI what it is – a benefit cut – they are instead referring to it as “savings”. And for his part, President Obama says that his proposed budget is a “compromise” which includes chained CPI as a component to deficit reduction.

The problem is that Congressional Republicans weren’t even at the bargaining table. Speaker Boehner rejected the plan out of hand on the basis that it includes any tax increases at all. In fact, it’s a remarkably generous proposal that offers $2 in spending cuts (to Social Security and other cherished programs of Democrats) for $1 in tax increases.

“If the president believes these modest entitlement savings are needed to help shore up these programs, there’s no reason they should be held hostage for more tax hikes. That’s no way to lead and move the country forward,” Boehner said.

Once again, the president has negotiated with himself. Boehner can now turn around and say that Obama’s “compromise budget” is the starting point for negotiations and we end up near the Ryan budget as an end point. This is not how a negotiation is supposed to work.

The president has failed voters who believed in his message of fairness. He has thrown seniors and future retirees under the bus in favor of an ever-elusive “grand bargain”. Let the Republicans be the ones to call for cuts to a program that is vitally important for seniors. They’ve been doing it since the program was founded nearly a hundred years ago. We’re Democrats. We believe in strengthening Social Security, not leaving seniors at the mercy of overzealous bean counters who harp about the deficit but ignore its true causes. President Obama, we deserve better.


President Obama Heavy Favorite For Tuesday

Posted on: November 3rd, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

President Barack Obama is a heavy favorite to win on Tuesday against Republican Mitt Romney according to an analysis of state-by-state polling data. It appeared after the first debate that Romney might make a race of it with polls showing a surge in his direction, but within two weeks of the first debate the polling averages settled towards a statistical tie. The majority of national polls now either show a literal tie or a slight Obama advantage nationally.

U.S. President Obama Speaks at Intel's Fab 42
The president will have plenty of reason to smile if the polls hold up.

Even more important than the national popular vote, though, is of course state-by-state results. If current polling is accurate, Obama will win in the range of 281-347 electoral votes. Obama importantly holds consistent polling leads in Ohio where eight of the most recent polls have Obama ahead, one shows a tie and only one has Romney ahead (and it is sponsored by a Republican affiliated pollster). Likewise, Florida has moved in recent weeks from leaning toward Romney to becoming a true toss-up. Obama leads in four of the ten most recent polls out of the Sunshine State, Romney leads in four and they are tied in two. It is literally a toss-up, although momentum favors Obama. Even more bleak for Romney: the twenty-two swing state polls released on Friday showed Obama leading in nineteen, Romney in one and two ties.

Ultimately, Obama has a much stronger base of Democratic-leaning states than Romney has GOP-leaning states. If you give Obama all of the states that have went to the Democrat in the past five straight elections, Obama has 242 Electoral Votes (EVs) of the 270 that are required to win the White House. Add in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico (where he has polled consistently ahead in each state by respected non-partisan pollsters) then you would reach 281 EVs, which I consider the low end of Obama’s likely results on Tuesday night. Throw in Colorado, which is close but has leaned more Obama than Romney most of the cycle, and you reach 290. He would reach 332 by adding Florida and Virginia to Obama’s column, both possibilities but still less likely than the other states as they are near literal toss-ups. Finally, he could reach 347 by winning North Carolina, but he has polled worse in NC than any of the other states. Frankly, North Carolina is the only “swing state” that Romney can more or less count on. For Romney to win he would need to sweep the table of all of these states, plus pick off

Of course this analysis is based on polling data that could be influenced by the recent hurricane. It’s not clear how the hurricane and its aftermath will change the state of the race. It’s distinctly possible that the hurricane can hurt Obama’s popular vote total in places like Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania where power has not been fully restored and people are more worried about rebuilding their lives. Clearly you can’t blame them if the election becomes a secondary thought. Nonetheless, Obama should win those states without much problem. It would just affect the national popular vote total.

I will have a full state-by-state prediction on Tuesday for both the presidential election and Senate races. Stay tuned!


Obama Campaign Launches $25 Million Ad Buy

Posted on: May 7th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

President Obama’s re-election team is set to launch a record $25 million ad blitz in a number of swings states in the coming days, weeks and months. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado will be the first targets – each of them states that Obama won in 2008, but several are traditionally Republican-leaning states. President Bush carried all of them except for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. That’s actually good news for the Obama campaign since they are playing on Republican turf rather than in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.


State of the Union Liveblogging

Posted on: January 25th, 2011 by Kyle. | No Comments

Final Thoughts: President Obama entered tonight’s speech with a new Republican Congress, but also an improving economy and approval ratings above 50%. The mood on Capitol Hill was somewhat sober with the recent events in Tucson looming over as a dark cloud. The president struck the right tone and set out priorities that have been long ignored by politicians.

By proposing a spending freeze over the next five years, the president is sure to upset Democrats and not please many Republicans that would rather see huge cuts in federal spending. His middle-of-the-road position makes him appear to be serious about tackling problems while others nitpick in a partisan fashion. He noted that if Republicans are serious about cutting the deficit, then they should support letting tax cuts for the wealthy expire and getting rid of subsidies to oil companies.

The president proposed getting 80% of the country’s energy from clean sources by 2030. Investments will have to be made and prioritized. Not only is it a matter of smart economics, it is a national security issue as well. This should be our Sputnik moment, where the country rallies behind a cause like we did during the Space Race over 50 years ago. President Obama made the case that we need a similar race towards energy innovation.

The president laid out an optimistic, yet realistic, plan for the future tonight. Smart investment in clean energy, reforming our education system and continuing the recovery in our economy through infrastructure upgrades and exports. It’s something that all Americans can stand behind.

10:13 p.m.: “The state of our Union is strong.”

10:12 p.m.: America was founded on being a nation of big dreams. “We do big things.”

10:06 p.m.: “Starting this year no American will be forbidden from serving the country they love because of who they love.” Repealing Don’t Ask Don’t Tell was passed during last year’s Congress.

10:03 p.m.: The people in South Sudan voted for independence with American assistance. The United States “supports the democratic aspirations of all people.”

10:02 p.m.: President will visit South America in March to build new alliances.

10:01 p.m.: The New START Treaty reduces nuclear arms between the United States and Russia. It also re-instates inspections.

10:00 p.m.: “American Muslims are a part of our American family.”

9:58 p.m.: “Nearly 100,000 brave young men and women” have left Iraq “with their heads held high.” Combat missions have ended, violence is down and a new government has formed. “America’s commitment has been kept. The Iraq War is coming to an end.”

9:57 p.m.: Promises to veto any bill with earmarks in it. That’s a pretty small and symbolic promise, Mr. President.

9:55 p.m.: “We need to think bigger.” Small, symbolic budget cuts will not solve any problems.

9:54 p.m.: “We shouldn’t just give our people a government that is more affordable, we should give them a government that is more competent.”

9:53 p.m.: Proposes simplified tax code.

9:51 p.m.: To tackle the deficit “we simply cannot afford a permanent expansion” of tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

9:48 p.m.: President proposes freezing government spending for next five years. Already froze federal worker pay.

9:43 p.m.: President mentions passing health care with Democrats in the chamber standing up. Vows to protect the bill from Republican attempts at repeal, but is willing to work with Republicans to improve the bill. “Instead of fighting the battles of the last two years, let’s fix what needs fixing and move forward.”

9:39 p.m.: President proposes investments in transportation and infrastructure. Goal is to have high-speed rail accessible to 80% of Americans. Projects are already under-way in California, Florida and the Midwest. High-speed rail is cheaper, better for the environment, and in some cases faster than flying on a plane.

9:36 p.m.: Children of undocumented parents go to our colleges, but “go back home and compete against us”. President argues that it is time to address the issue of immigration. “Let’s stop expelling talented young people… who could be further enriching this nation.”

9:34 p.m.: “Higher education must be within the reach of every American.”

9:32 p.m.: President argues it is time to treat teachers with respect. Reward good teachers and punish bad ones.

9:30 p.m.: “We need to teach our kids that it’s not just the winner of the Super Bowl that needs to be celebrated, but the winner of the Science Fair.”

9:28 p.m.: “By 2035, 80% of America’s energy will come from renewable sources”

9:27 p.m.: “Instead of subsidizing yesterday’s energy, let’s invest in tomorrow’s.” Proposes paying for new technology by eliminating tax cuts to big oil.

9:26 p.m.: “We can be the first nation to have a million electric vehicles by 2015.”

9:24 p.m.: Obama argues that Clean energy should be the next Space Race.

9:23 p.m.: President references Sputnik and how the U.S. surpassed the Soviet Union in the Space Race.

9:22 p.m.: “We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world.”

9:21 p.m.: “The future is ours to win. But to get there we can’t stand still”.

9:19 p.m.: Technology and automation has led to fewer jobs needed.

9:16 p.m.: Corporate profits and the stock market are up, but we measure progress by average citizen.

9:14 p.m.: “What comes of this moment” depends on not whether we “sit together tonight, but whether we work together tomorrow.”

9:12 p.m.: The President notes an empty chair in the Chamber reserved for Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.

9:11 p.m.: President Obama begins to speak with Vice President Joe Biden and new Speaker of the House John Boehner sitting behind him.

Tonight I will be liveblogging the State of the Union address by President Obama. Refresh frequently for live updates.


The Truth Behind Nancy Pelosi’s House Record

Posted on: January 14th, 2011 by Kyle. | No Comments

Last week Republicans took control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2006. The reasons are more complicated than some would lead you to believe, but put simply, it was a mix of high unemployment, a huge money advantage for Republicans by corporate benefactors, dissatisfaction with Washington gridlock, and demographics in midterms that favor Republicans over Democrats. Older people tend to vote in all elections, while younger voters only tend to vote in presidential years. In fact, only about a quarter of young voters participated in the 2010 election vs. half of them during 2008. That’s a steep drop-off and largely benefited the Republicans.

No matter the outcome of the midterm election, it is indisputable that the last Congress was one of the most productive ever. For all of the Pelosi haters out there, Speaker Pelosi accomplished a great deal in the past four years, including many things that Republicans would have supported in the past (such as tax cuts). Her image as a “San Francisco liberal” did not make her many friends in the nation’s mid-section and President Obama rarely defended her, despite the fact that she was carrying his bucket in the House. Here are just a few of the many accomplishments that Pelosi managed when she was House Speaker:

*Extending unemployment benefits. The roughly 10-15% of people unemployed in this area (depending on which county you live in) would not have unemployment benefits if the GOP had their way.
*Expanding health care coverage to all Americans by 2014 (unless Republicans de-fund it, which is quite possible)
*Regulating the banks to make sure that future bailouts do not happen.
*Ending the bank bailouts from the Bush years.
*Increasing funding for financial aid to college, including Pell Grants and reducing the cost of student loans.
*Creating an estimated 3.7 million jobs with the Recovery Act

I would stand by that record any day of the week. The Republicans got us into the ditch and the Democrats got us out. It wasn’t easy and times are still tough, but we are on the path to recovery. Going down the Republican path of de-regulation and tax cuts for the rich will only ensure a future economic collapse.


President Obama Speaks at Arizona Memorial

Posted on: January 13th, 2011 by Kyle. | No Comments

President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama visited Arizona on Wednesday in the wake of last Saturday’s tragic shooting. The president spoke at a memorial service honoring the lives of those that were shot and killed. Below is a video:


Health Care Vote Will Hurt Republicans in November

Posted on: March 23rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Now that health care reform has passed both chambers of Congress and is going to be signed into law today by President Obama, the election year political messaging begins. A lot of attention has been given to the 17 House Democrats seeking re-election in districts John McCain won in 2008 after having voted for health care reform. But there are 32 House Republicans that voted against the bill in districts that President Obama won in 2008.

In other words, while Democrats will have to defend their vote in tough districts, nearly double the number of Republicans find themselves in similar situations. Worse yet for the GOP, there is evidence that support for the bill is significantly improving from where it was just a couple months ago when Democrats lost the Massachusetts Senate seat long held by Ted Kennedy.

President Obama’s approval rating on health care stood at 36-54 opposed in January (according to CBS) and was up to 41-51 by this past weekend before the vote took place. That’s a shift of 8 points in about a two month period and that is before the House even passed the bill. Undoubtedly, those numbers will continue to improve as the positive coverage from the bill’s passage continues. The president’s overall job approval is at 49-41 positive, an improvement from 46-41 in January.

What these numbers show is that the negative feelings towards this bill have peaked and the positive feelings are on the way up. As various aspects of the bill begin to be felt relatively quickly, such as kids being able to stay on their parent’s insurance plan until age 26 or the ban on pre-existing conditions, approval will continue to improve. Americans will realize that the Armageddon that Republicans literally said would take place after the bill passed was nothing more than scare tactics.

Not only are calls for repealing the bill ridiculously unrealistic (President Obama would veto any repeal), they also will ring hallow in November. Voters will question why the Republican Party is campaigning on a platform of repealing a ban on pre-existing conditions, filling the Medicare prescription doughnut hole, extending health insurance to 32 million Americans and reducing the deficit by over $1 trillion over the next two decades.

Let’s get back to those 32 House Republicans that voted against health care in districts that President Obama won. Below is a list of all of them:

Judy Biggert IL-13
Brian Bilbray CA-50
Mary Bono Mack CA-45
Ken Calvert CA-44
Dave Camp MI-4
John Campbell CA-48
Anh “Joseph” Cao LA-2
Michael Castle DE-AL
Charles Dent PA-15
David Dreier CA-26
Randy Forbes VA-4
Elton Gallegly CA-24
Jim Gerlach PA-6
Mark Kirk IL-10
Leonard Lance NJ-7
Tom Latham IA-4
Frank LoBiondo NJ-2
Daniel Lungren CA-3
Donald Manzullo IL-16
Thaddeus McCotter MI-11
Howard “Buck” McKeon CA-25
Erik Paulsen MN-3
Thomas Petri WI-6
David Reichert WA-8
Mike Rogers MI-8
Peter Roskam IL-6
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen FL-18
Paul Ryan WI-1
Lee Terry NE-2
Patrick Tiberi OH-12
Fred Upton MI-6
Frank Wolf VA-10
Bill Young FL-10

Two are running for the Senate, Mark Kirk of Illinois and Mike Castle of Delaware. Both of those districts are favored to be won by Democrats. Representative Cao sits in a heavily Democratic New Orleans district and was only elected because the sitting member was a convicted felon. He voted for the House bill last November, but opposed it on Sunday. You can count him as a lame duck. Democrats are sure to win that seat back.

Go down the list and you can see some vulnerable names in Democratic or Democratic-trending districts: Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert in the Chicago suburbs, Jim Gerlach whose failed bid for governor has undoubtedly put him behind the game in his suburban Philadelphia district, Dan Lungren of California went from 62% support in the 2004 election to 49% in 2008.

With the right challengers facing each of these vulnerable Republicans, Democrats have a good chance at winning a few of these seats. The Republican takeover of Congress that conservatives are talking about seems a long way away when you add that to the Democrats which are already favored to pick up Mark Kirk’s seat in Illinois, Mike Castle’s in Delaware and Cao’s in Louisiana.

Despite phony concern coming from Republican leaders over the political impact that health care reform would have on Democrats, most evidence suggests that passing the bill enhances their chances of retaining majority status. The Democratic Party in Congress and President Obama have, without a single Republican vote, passed historic legislation to provide universal health care coverage for Americans. This goal has eluded every president since Tedd Roosevelt over 100 years ago. It’s an achievement that puts them in the history books and on safer political ground than they would have been if Republicans succeeded in killing the bill.

Let me be clear that I do not mean to say that Democrats will gain seats in the midterm election this fall. I believe that we will see modest losses in the House and a handful in the Senate. This falls well within the political history of the president’s party losing seats in a midterm election. Democrats won in places in 2008 that we normally wouldn’t have: conservative districts in Alabama and Idaho, among others. These are likely lost causes in 2010. But the talk of a takeover of both the House and Senate by Republicans is overblown. They will not win either chamber for a long time to come.


Health Care Reform Becomes Law as House Passes Bill

Posted on: March 21st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Democrats scored a major victory on Sunday night as the health care bill, which has been debated for over a year, has finally passed both chambers of Congress and is expected to be signed into law by President Barack Obama shortly. The vote was 219 to 212 with zero Republicans voting in favor. It is an achievement that eluded Presidents Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.

The bill extends insurance to 32 million Americans that previously did not have health insurance, reduces the deficit by over $1 trillion over the next two decades, bans the insurance industry practice of denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions, and bans insurance companies from dropping coverage due to health. While Republicans have complained about a lack of bipartisanship, the bill includes over 200 Republican amendments.


Is America becoming a socialist nation?

Posted on: March 18th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

It was not a common phrase in our lexicon until recently. Only after a black man was nominated and eventually elected president did the term “socialism” resurface to describe the Democratic Party’s leader. Bill Clinton avoided the accusation, as well as Al Gore and John Kerry. “Liberal” or “far left radical” was sufficient for them. But not for Barack Obama. Not for a president that many in white America fear as an illegitimate leader – one that only won 365 electoral votes and 53 percent of the popular vote – thanks to ACORN and falsified birth certificates. [end sarcasm]

It’s a serious charge, though, that I think we write off too quickly. While I would like to think that most Americans are reasonable enough to admit the simple reality that President Obama won the election in a landslide fashion and is indeed an American citizen, large numbers of Republicans come to different conclusions. Only 42 percent of Republicans polled by Research 2000 were found to believe that President Obama was a citizen of the United States. A majority were either convinced that he was not or were unsure.

So what motivates people to believe these fallacies? I believe that there are several causes, not the least of which is race. No one questioned a white president’s citizenship. The second is simply economics. There is a great deal of unease in our country today, largely derived from the economic anxieties that we live in, and rightfully so. But in these uncertain times people often come to conclusions that are, at best, flawed. They need someone to blame for all of their woes. President Obama is an easy target for them. He confirms their suspicions about a black man in the White House (emphasis on white).

I would rather not spend an entire post digressing about people’s (false) suspicions and conspiracy theories. I was invited to participate in a discussion about socialism in America on fire! Radio, an Internet radio program. You can listen to the full episode at this link or just click play on the player below. If you just want to hear what I have to say, you can skip to around 39:00 minutes, but the entire program is interesting:




What exactly is socialism, anyway? The standard dictionary definition of socialism is “a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.” If one wants to have an honest debate about government theory, properly defining terms is an important first step.

President Obama has never advocated for anything remotely close to a “command-and-control” system of government that socialism implies. Indeed, he has said throughout his political career and as president that he is a believer in the free market. At the same time, he has advocated for stronger protections of consumers through reforms of the financial system and health care system. One should not confuse government regulation with government control.

The second point that I would make is that the kinds of programs that have been derided as examples of “socialism”, such as the so-called public option, are already in existence for large portions of the population. Seniors benefit from “socialized medicine” in the form of Medicare. Veterans benefit from Veteran’s Affairs hospitals. The poor benefit from Medicaid. This is not a new concept in American politics. Protecting those that are vulnerable in society has been a priority among Democrats for decades.

Many of the complaints from some that have called President Obama a socialist were actually policies enacted during the Bush administration. TARP, otherwise known as the “bailout” for Wall Street, was a policy pushed by President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson in September 2008. It was Secretary Paulson that asked Congress for near limitless control over hundreds of billions of dollars with no oversight to speak of. The “auto bailout” began under President Bush as well. $17.4 billion was given to GM and Chrysler during the last month of the Bush administration (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16740.html).

The bottom line is that the country is not moving towards socialism. We live in a democracy where elections have consequences. Those upset with President Obama’s policies vocally opposed him before he was elected and they lost. We have a long tradition in this country of enacting programs that protect the poor and those in need, as well as regulate industries that abuse their power. Those policies will undoubtedly continue to be advanced by President Obama and Democrats in Congress, as well as future Democratic politicians.


Indiana Senate: Bayh Leads Coats by 20

Posted on: February 11th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Just a day after former senator Dan Coats announced his entrance into the Indiana Senate race, a poll shows that he has a lot of ground to make up before he can call himself a “current senator”. Incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh, who enjoys a 61% approval rating in the state, leads Coats by 20 points. If the race were held today, Bayh would win 55% of the vote to Coats’ 35%. Bayh does particularly well in Democratic strongholds of Indianapolis and Northwest Indiana – garnering 68% in both.

Research 2000 also polled President Obama. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win Indiana since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide victory. Despite a dip in support, the president is doing surprisingly well in this traditionally Republican state. His approval rating stands at 46%, only a few points below the national average of 50%, with 49% disapproving. While there is certainly room for improvement, he has a good chance of winning Indiana again in 2012 as the economy improves (and his approval rating with it).