Indiana
Incumbent: Evan Bayh (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (Democrat), Former Rep. John Hostettler, Former Senator Dan Coats and State Senator Marlin Stutzman (Republicans)
Prediction: Toss-up

Evan Bayh was elected in 1998 after serving two terms as Indiana’s governor. Dan Coats, who is considering a challenge to Bayh, retired in 1998 to avoid facing the popular Democrat in the general election. Bayh went on to win over 63% of the vote against the mayor of Fort Wayne. In 2004, despite President Bush beating John Kerry by over 20% in the state, Bayh was re-elected with 61%.

Since becoming Indiana’s junior senator, Bayh has taken a centrist stance (some would say even conservative). From 2001 to 2005 he was the head of the Democratic Leadership Council, which tries to push for moderate policies and candidates. Senator Bayh was one of three final picks to be President Obama’s Vice President (the other two being Tim Kaine and Joe Biden).

When I first wrote a draft of my prediction, I had this seat as “Leans Democratic”. That all changed when Senator Bayh announced in February that he would be retiring. The fact that a former senator is in the mix to win the Republican nomination and that Indiana has a conservative tilt make this a challenge for Democrats in the fall.

That said, they have recruited a top candidate in Brad Ellsworth, a former Sheriff of Vanderburgh County and a current Congressman from Southern Indiana. He won his seat handily in 2006, defeating incumbent John Hostettler, who lost his House seat in a rural part of Southern Indiana due to his far-right conservative views. As a candidate for the Senate, Hostettler would probably not fare much better statewide than he did in his former district.

Coats has already shown that he can win statewide, but that was over ten years ago. He has since been a lobbyist in Washington, a point that Democrats will drive home throughout the campaign. Another potential major downside to a Coats nomination for the Republicans is that he does not even live in Indiana anymore. He has been a resident of Virginia since he left the Senate. Ellsworth will certainly use that in television ads to paint Coats as a carpetbagger that only lives in Indiana when it is convenient.

Illinois
Incumbent: Roland Burris (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (Democrat), Rep. Mark Kirk (Republican)
Prediction: Leans Democratic

This is a seat that should never have been even considered competitive. That is until the former Governor Rod Blagojevich tried to sell Barack Obama’s former Senate seat to the highest bidder. Before being impeached, Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris. At first, Democrats in the Senate refused to seat him and the Secretary of State in Illinois would not sign his certification. Ultimately he was allowed to be seated, but decided against running for a full-term due to poor fundraising and poll numbers.

Enter Republican Mark Kirk, a suburban Congressman from Chicago. Known as a moderate, he voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade proposal only to say it was a mistake when voters within his own party chastised him for the vote. However, now that he has won the Republican primary, expect him to tack back to the center. Alexi Giannoulias is a young, telegenic politician, somewhat similar to Barack Obama. He currently leads in the polls by a healthy 8 points. Yet for a state as Democratic as Illinois, that isn’t all that comforting. The Blagojevich scandal and uncertainy surrounding the economy may mean that this race would be competitive. For now, it leans towards the Democrats.

Wisconsin
Incumbent: Russ Feingold (D)
Challenger(s): Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall, Businessman Dave Westlake
Prediction: Leans Democratic

Russ Feingold campaigned in 1992 on a promise to rely on citizens from Wisconsin for his campaign contributions, that he would raise his children in Wisconsin and hire most of his staff with people from the state. When he ran for re-election in 1998, he imposed a spending limit of $3.8 million, which is one dollar for each citizen in the state. In 2001, he was the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act. He joined John McCain in 2002 to pass McCain-Feingold, a landmark campaign finance law that capped the amount political parties could raise from individuals.

All of these have made Feingold a target of the Republican Party. His liberal positions in a state that has been trending more towards the center (with the exception of 2008) make him vulnerable to attacks from the right. Yet he has survived, winning by 12 percent in 2004 as George Bush nearly carried the state. He even won counties that George Bush also won. Despite his liberalism, his connectedness to the state seems to have paid dividends. For that reason, Wisconsin leans Democratic in 2010.

Ohio
Incumbent: George Voinovich (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (Democrats), Former Rep. Rob Portman (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-Up

Ohio is the ultimate swing-state. It is a true microcosm of the United States. The Buckeye State has big cities, medium sized cities, small cities, small towns and rural farmland. While most of the state would consider themselves to be Midwesterners, Southern Ohioans have a drawl more common in the South. It has college towns, beaches, farmland and declining manufacturing centers.

It also has volatile politics. Ohio went slightly for George Bush in 2000 and 2004, but swung towards the Democrats in 2006’s midterm elections as they captured House seats and a Senate seat, along with the governor’s mansion. Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Ohio, ensuring a sweep of the entire Midwest. If there is a Republican comeback of any sort, it will have to start in Ohio defending this seat.

This is an expensive state to compete in. With major markets like Cleveland, Cincinatti and Columbus, along with medium-sized cities like Toledo and Dayton, the two parties could easily spend a good $15-$20 million here. Democrats spending money on a seat currently held by Republicans can help draw funds away from their vulnerable incumbents such as Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and others. It doesn’t hurt that Republicans will use spending as a major campaign theme. Their leading candidate, Rob Portman, presided over record deficits as the budget director for George Bush.

Iowa
Incumbent: Chuck Grassley (R)
Challenger(s): Lawyer Roxanne Conlin, Former State Legislator Bob Krause
Prediction: Likely Republican

While President Obama sailed to victory in both the Iowa Caucus and general election in 2008, this year’s Senate race is going to be a tough one for Democrats to pull off. “As a good farmer, Senator Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops,” Krause told supporters in Des Moines. Chuck Grassley has been around for five terms and shows no signs of retiring.

Grassley famously participated in healthcare “negotiations” during the summer with Democratic Senator Max Baucus, only to spread malicious falsehoods about the legislation when he met with voters during townhall meetings. This doesn’t seem to have hurt his support any. His Democratic challengers will undoubtedly be vastly outspent in campaign ads and the state party will be focused on retaining the governor’s mansion in the state.

Missouri
Incumbent: Kit Bond (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (Democrat), Rep. Roy Blunt (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-up

The Carnahan family is to Missouri what the Bayh family is to Indiana. Governor Mel Carnahan served from 1993 to 2000 and decided to run for the Senate. Unfortunately, shortly before the election, he died in a plane crash. Yet his name remained on the ballot and amazingly he managed to win against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (yes, the guy that George W. Bush would name Attorney General). Mel Carnahan was the first person to be elected posthumously to the United States Senate.

They still needed to fill the sit, though, so the new governor appointed his wife, Jean Carnahan. Ultimately she decided to run in a special election in 2002 to fill out the remainder of Mel’s term. She lost to Jim Talent by approximately 20,000 votes and provided Republicans with their Senate majority after the 2002 midterm election. Four years later, in 2006, Senator Talent lost to Claire McCaskill as the Democrats reclaimed their majority status.

Robin Carnahan is attempting to keep the family name alive in her run for Senate this year against Republican Representative Roy Blunt. Like Ohio, Missouri is a bellweather state. What happens at a national level is often felt in these two states. Missouri has been trending slightly more Republican at the national level than other states in recent years, giving their electoral votes to President Bush in 2000 and 2004, as well as John McCain in 2008 by fewer than 4,000 votes.

However, Democrats have managed to win statewide office frequently. In 2006, aside from picking up a Senate seat, they also won the governor’s mansion back from Roy Blunt’s son, Matt Blunt, who decided to not run for re-election. The fact that Robin Carnahan comes from a political dynasty in Missouri should help her chances of winning this seat from the Republicans. Her campaign is distancing itself from the Democratic Party, highlighting her independence and ability to work across the aisle. This will be one of the closest elections of 2010. You can bet on that.

Harkin’s ascension to chairman should give a boost to public option proponents as Kennedy was too ill to be much of an influence on the legislation currently making its way through Congress. “I’m ready to carry on [Kennedy's] work, and I’m ready to get a health reform bill passed and to President Obama before Christmas comes this December,” Harkin said at his annual Steak Fry in Indianola, Iowa.

In regards to the bill making its way through the Senate right now, “That bill — mark my word, I’m the chairman — is going to have a strong public option,” he said to thunderous applause. “We lost a great progressive, a great leader on so many issues…It now falls to me to pick up the torch,” Harkin said. “No one can take Ted Kennedy’s place, but I tell you this, I’m ready for this fight, I’m ready to lead this committee.”

While this decision is certainly disheartening, it is not the end of the story. We will not rest until the day that people of all colors, religions and sexual orientations can choose to enter into a union with another person that they love. It is not the role of government – in a republic – to be a moral arbiter of law. That is what authoritarian regimes do. Does America strive to be more like Saudi Arabia or Iran?

This is what I ask of those of you who feel passionately about this issue. Do not spend time contemplating what is wrong with American justice or whether there will ever be a day where equality is finally achieved. Instead, do something about it. Write to your local newspaper, communicate with people of opposing or neutral views to try to win them to our side, and most importantly be a part of the political process. Speak out, protest (there are ways to do this other than carrying signs) and VOTE.

Proposition 8 was passed with the slimmest majority – less than 52 percent. We will have to work just that much harder to convince people that our rights should not be put up for a vote. There will be opportunities across this country to do exactly that. As we have seen in the states of Vermont and Maine, some politicians have the courage to stand up for what is right. In Iowa, the Supreme Court has ruled in our favor. New Hampshire has passed a gay marriage law that is waiting to be signed by Governor Lynch (by all means call and write to him!). Our side is on the winning side of history. Those that stand in the way of equality will soon see that.

At a state level, it’s up to them. I don’t want it to be a federal thing. I personally still think it’s wrong. People don’t understand the dictionary–it’s called queer. Queer means strange and unusual. It’s not like a slur, like you would call a white person a honky or something like that. You know, God is pretty explicit in what we’re supposed to do–what man and woman are for. Now, at the same time, we’re supposed to love everybody and accept people, and preach against the sins. I’ve had some friends that are actually homosexual. And, I mean, they know where I stand, and they know that I wouldn’t have them anywhere near my children. But at the same time, they’re people, and they’re going to do their thing.

I normally would not lend people such as Joe very much credibility. In fact, he has none. Yet it was John McCain and others in the Republican tent (especially on Fox News) that pushed him to the front of the national spotlight. They put him on the pedestal, now they have to deal with it. What does this say about John McCain and other Republicans that latched themselves to this man? In a way they married him in the hopes that he would provide them with electoral success with middle class voters. John McCain apparently is happy to marry to the right wing ideology of Christian conservatives in the hope of winning elections, but does not want to ensure equal marriage rights to gay couples. I would ask the Senator: do you stand by Joe’s comments? Voters in Arizona deserve to know that answer before they vote in 2010.

Joe Biden is a Senator from Delaware and former presidential candidate. He also serves as chairman on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This is important because not only does Biden have foreign policy credentials, he has more experience in the Senate than John McCain does.

Evan Bayh is a Senator from Indiana, former two term Indiana governor and attorney general. He also has foreign policy experience as a member of the Senate Armed Services committee. He would complement Obama’s youth with his own at age 52, while being able to claim two decades of experience for his work as governor and in the Senate.

Tim Kaine is a Governor from Virginia. Like Obama, he is relatively young and new to the national scene. He was elected governor with support from Democrats, independents and Republicans. His cross-party appeal would be a strong selling point to a candidate that bills himself as being post-partisan. On the downside, Kaine is not well known outside of Virginia and his lack of experience could prove problematic.

Who do I think Obama will end up choosing? Senator Bayh is my bet. As a Hillary Clinton supporter in the primaries, Bayh would signal to Hillary supporters that the Obama campaign is not taking them for granted. With polls showing Obama ahead in Indiana without Bayh on the ticket, adding Bayh would further strengthen his chances of winning this ruby red state and turning it blue for the first time since 1964. The 11 electoral votes in Indiana, combined with Iowa’s 7 would be enough to make Obama the next president of the United States. Coincidentally, Obama will be making a campaign stop in Elkhart, Indiana on Wednesday, just 20 minutes east of South Bend. Will he use this venue to announce Bayh as his running mate? We’ll have to see in two short days.

Obama – 38%
Edwards – 30%
Hillary – 29%

Here are some key points from tonight’s results:

1. 57% of Obama’s support came from voters aged 18-29; Hillary was supported by 45% by voters over 65

There’s a clear generational gap and for the first time, young voters prevailed. The media says all the time how young voters do not show up and vote. They did and they did overwhelming for Barack Obama. People my age are taking control of the country away from the Baby Boomer generation that has failed us for so long.

2. Obama won among women: 35% Obama, 30% Clinton, 23% Edwards

Hillary was using the gender card most of this campaign. Women rejected her. Perhaps it was all of the negative campaigning that she employed, raising questions about Obama and drug use, digging through his kindergarten papers (literally), and using his theme of change when clearly voting for her could not bring that about.

3. 227,000 voters turned out to vote in the Democratic caucus alone. That’s nearly double the turnout in 2004, and double the turnout of the Republicans in 2008. One word: amazing.

Why is that? Because Barack Obama has cross-party appeal that Hillary Clinton does not. Not only did Obama win among Democrats, he overwhelmingly won independents. Here’s how independents voted:

Obama – 41%
Edwards – 23%
Hillary – 17%

4. The under 30 vote went the same way as the overall results of the top 3 Democrats and top 2 Republicans. In other words, younger voters are heavily influencing the process and reflect the overall outcome. More than half of caucus goers said it was their first time, and they broke for Obama 40% to 30% for Hillary. The next contest is in New Hampshire on Tuesday where independents can also vote in the primary. If they break for Obama like they did today, Hillary will lose overwhelmingly yet again and Obama will more than likely win the Democratic nomination.

Since who I support is clear if you know me or have read my past blogs (Obama), I’m not going to make another pitch for why he should be the Democratic nominee. Instead, as I did just before the 2006 elections, correctly predicting Democrats would reclaim Congress, winning all 3 competitive House races in Indiana, as well as the Senate races in Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia, I want to get on the record for who will win the Iowa caucuses and the nominations (at least the Democratic side). Here are my predictions:

1. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama wins Iowa, upsetting the “front-runner” Hillary Clinton in what will go down as one of the most historic primary upsets of all time. The former president Clinton’s wife, Hillary, will be defeated by a one-term Senator from Illinois by more than 5 percentage points. In fact, John Edwards will come in second and Hillary will stumble to an embarrassing third.

2. Mike Huckabee’s past and recent campaign gaffes will haunt him. It also won’t help that he is in California on Iowa Caucus Eve to tape a show with Jay Leno. As you may recall, Leno didn’t exactly help from Thompson take off when he skipped a New Hampshire debate to appear on the Tonight Show. Mitt Romney, despite the media’s relentless scrutiny of his Mormon faith and flip-flopping track record, will win in Iowa for his efforts on the ground spending so much time there and his get out the vote machine. This one will be closer. I would guess Romney wins only by 3-5 points.

3. This is where it gets interesting. On the Republican side, Ron Paul is going to surprise people with a third or fourth place showing. McCain will more than likely be right behind him, with Fred Thompson a distant single-digit fifth. Rudy Giuliani, the national “front-runner” will show up on the New York Times frontpage Friday morning a campaign-ending sixth place. Only Congressman Duncan Hunter will do worse than Rudy in Iowa.

4. Barack Obama’s win in Iowa will translate into a New Hampshire surge, where independents in the Granite State will vote overwhelming in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican primary, hurting John McCain and helping Mitt Romney win his second primary.

Summary:

I predict Obama and Romney will win both Iowa and New Hampshire. I’ll leave any further predictions for another day. As I told a friend, we only see a candidate like Obama once in every few generations. Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy. History changers. Obama is the leader our country needs. He has Bill Clinton’s charisma with the cross country appeal of John and Bobby Kennedy. Bill Clinton said that voting for Obama is “rolling the dice”. In other words, you know what you’re getting with the Clintons. It’s not change and it’s not something that America wants again. America needs a fresh start. Iowa is the place, tomorrow is the time.