“Dan Coats chose to lobby for unsavory entities such as Bank of America, which participated in some of the worst excesses that triggered the financial crisis, and Harvest Natural Resources, an oil company owned by the socialist country of Venezuela,” the campaign report reads. They also point out that Coats received only 39 percent of the vote among Republicans. While Coats won the GOP primary, 61 percent of Republicans chose someone else.

It was already clear prior to this that Ellsworth would be running as the former sheriff that he was rather than the Congressman from Southern Indiana that he currently is. It was also pretty obvious that Dan Coats’ role as a lobbyist for banking interests and foreign governments would play heavily into the campaign. You can count on this race in Indiana between Ellsworth and Coats to be one of the most hard fought in the nation this fall.

A special election in the 3rd District to complete Souder’s term through this year hasn’t yet been set by Governor Daniels. Republican and Democratic committeemen will pick the special election nominees through caucuses. Democrats are expected to pick their nominee for the fall’s general election, Tom Hayhurst, to run in the special election. Hayhurst gave Souder a run for his money in 2006, coming within ten points of victory, one of the closest elections that Souder ever faced in this heavily Republican district.

Primary Results

Dan Coats – 39%
Marlin A. Stutzman – 29%
John N. Hostettler – 23%
Don Bates, Jr. – 5%
Richard Behney – 4%

99% of precincts reporting

The vote was a test of the Tea Party appeal in Indiana. Marlin Stutzman started the race as a no-name candidate, but surged with support from the likes of far-right Republicans like Jim DeMint and Mike Huckabee. The fact that someone like Marlin Stutzman managed nearly 30% of the vote, with no name recognition across the state, has to be startling to establishment Republicans looking to pick up Bayh’s seat.

The establishment candidate in this race – Dan Coats – only managed 40 percent support. Will Tea Partiers rally around a Senator-turned-lobbyist? Will they support a candidate who was deemed a “carpetbagger” by his primary opponents for moving to Indiana from Virginia only to run for this seat? Most of them likely will, but uniting the Republican Party in Indiana will certainly be much more difficult than it will for the Democrats, who did not have a bruising primary. That said, Coats currently leads in statewide polling. Brad Ellsworth, meanwhile, has yet to run a statewide ad. I fully expect this to be a close race come November.

Meanwhile, across the border in Ohio, Democrats nominated Lt. Governor Lee Fisher to take on former Bush budget director Rob Portman. He defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Ohio is a mirror image of Indiana, where retiring Republican Senator George Voinovich is leaving an open seat for a possible Democratic pickup opportunity. The most recent polling shows Lee Fisher slightly ahead of Rob Portman, although this will likely be a close one to watch as well.

Indiana
Incumbent: Evan Bayh (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (Democrat), Former Rep. John Hostettler, Former Senator Dan Coats and State Senator Marlin Stutzman (Republicans)
Prediction: Toss-up

Evan Bayh was elected in 1998 after serving two terms as Indiana’s governor. Dan Coats, who is considering a challenge to Bayh, retired in 1998 to avoid facing the popular Democrat in the general election. Bayh went on to win over 63% of the vote against the mayor of Fort Wayne. In 2004, despite President Bush beating John Kerry by over 20% in the state, Bayh was re-elected with 61%.

Since becoming Indiana’s junior senator, Bayh has taken a centrist stance (some would say even conservative). From 2001 to 2005 he was the head of the Democratic Leadership Council, which tries to push for moderate policies and candidates. Senator Bayh was one of three final picks to be President Obama’s Vice President (the other two being Tim Kaine and Joe Biden).

When I first wrote a draft of my prediction, I had this seat as “Leans Democratic”. That all changed when Senator Bayh announced in February that he would be retiring. The fact that a former senator is in the mix to win the Republican nomination and that Indiana has a conservative tilt make this a challenge for Democrats in the fall.

That said, they have recruited a top candidate in Brad Ellsworth, a former Sheriff of Vanderburgh County and a current Congressman from Southern Indiana. He won his seat handily in 2006, defeating incumbent John Hostettler, who lost his House seat in a rural part of Southern Indiana due to his far-right conservative views. As a candidate for the Senate, Hostettler would probably not fare much better statewide than he did in his former district.

Coats has already shown that he can win statewide, but that was over ten years ago. He has since been a lobbyist in Washington, a point that Democrats will drive home throughout the campaign. Another potential major downside to a Coats nomination for the Republicans is that he does not even live in Indiana anymore. He has been a resident of Virginia since he left the Senate. Ellsworth will certainly use that in television ads to paint Coats as a carpetbagger that only lives in Indiana when it is convenient.

Illinois
Incumbent: Roland Burris (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (Democrat), Rep. Mark Kirk (Republican)
Prediction: Leans Democratic

This is a seat that should never have been even considered competitive. That is until the former Governor Rod Blagojevich tried to sell Barack Obama’s former Senate seat to the highest bidder. Before being impeached, Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris. At first, Democrats in the Senate refused to seat him and the Secretary of State in Illinois would not sign his certification. Ultimately he was allowed to be seated, but decided against running for a full-term due to poor fundraising and poll numbers.

Enter Republican Mark Kirk, a suburban Congressman from Chicago. Known as a moderate, he voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade proposal only to say it was a mistake when voters within his own party chastised him for the vote. However, now that he has won the Republican primary, expect him to tack back to the center. Alexi Giannoulias is a young, telegenic politician, somewhat similar to Barack Obama. He currently leads in the polls by a healthy 8 points. Yet for a state as Democratic as Illinois, that isn’t all that comforting. The Blagojevich scandal and uncertainy surrounding the economy may mean that this race would be competitive. For now, it leans towards the Democrats.

Wisconsin
Incumbent: Russ Feingold (D)
Challenger(s): Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall, Businessman Dave Westlake
Prediction: Leans Democratic

Russ Feingold campaigned in 1992 on a promise to rely on citizens from Wisconsin for his campaign contributions, that he would raise his children in Wisconsin and hire most of his staff with people from the state. When he ran for re-election in 1998, he imposed a spending limit of $3.8 million, which is one dollar for each citizen in the state. In 2001, he was the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act. He joined John McCain in 2002 to pass McCain-Feingold, a landmark campaign finance law that capped the amount political parties could raise from individuals.

All of these have made Feingold a target of the Republican Party. His liberal positions in a state that has been trending more towards the center (with the exception of 2008) make him vulnerable to attacks from the right. Yet he has survived, winning by 12 percent in 2004 as George Bush nearly carried the state. He even won counties that George Bush also won. Despite his liberalism, his connectedness to the state seems to have paid dividends. For that reason, Wisconsin leans Democratic in 2010.

Ohio
Incumbent: George Voinovich (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (Democrats), Former Rep. Rob Portman (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-Up

Ohio is the ultimate swing-state. It is a true microcosm of the United States. The Buckeye State has big cities, medium sized cities, small cities, small towns and rural farmland. While most of the state would consider themselves to be Midwesterners, Southern Ohioans have a drawl more common in the South. It has college towns, beaches, farmland and declining manufacturing centers.

It also has volatile politics. Ohio went slightly for George Bush in 2000 and 2004, but swung towards the Democrats in 2006’s midterm elections as they captured House seats and a Senate seat, along with the governor’s mansion. Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Ohio, ensuring a sweep of the entire Midwest. If there is a Republican comeback of any sort, it will have to start in Ohio defending this seat.

This is an expensive state to compete in. With major markets like Cleveland, Cincinatti and Columbus, along with medium-sized cities like Toledo and Dayton, the two parties could easily spend a good $15-$20 million here. Democrats spending money on a seat currently held by Republicans can help draw funds away from their vulnerable incumbents such as Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and others. It doesn’t hurt that Republicans will use spending as a major campaign theme. Their leading candidate, Rob Portman, presided over record deficits as the budget director for George Bush.

Iowa
Incumbent: Chuck Grassley (R)
Challenger(s): Lawyer Roxanne Conlin, Former State Legislator Bob Krause
Prediction: Likely Republican

While President Obama sailed to victory in both the Iowa Caucus and general election in 2008, this year’s Senate race is going to be a tough one for Democrats to pull off. “As a good farmer, Senator Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops,” Krause told supporters in Des Moines. Chuck Grassley has been around for five terms and shows no signs of retiring.

Grassley famously participated in healthcare “negotiations” during the summer with Democratic Senator Max Baucus, only to spread malicious falsehoods about the legislation when he met with voters during townhall meetings. This doesn’t seem to have hurt his support any. His Democratic challengers will undoubtedly be vastly outspent in campaign ads and the state party will be focused on retaining the governor’s mansion in the state.

Missouri
Incumbent: Kit Bond (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (Democrat), Rep. Roy Blunt (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-up

The Carnahan family is to Missouri what the Bayh family is to Indiana. Governor Mel Carnahan served from 1993 to 2000 and decided to run for the Senate. Unfortunately, shortly before the election, he died in a plane crash. Yet his name remained on the ballot and amazingly he managed to win against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (yes, the guy that George W. Bush would name Attorney General). Mel Carnahan was the first person to be elected posthumously to the United States Senate.

They still needed to fill the sit, though, so the new governor appointed his wife, Jean Carnahan. Ultimately she decided to run in a special election in 2002 to fill out the remainder of Mel’s term. She lost to Jim Talent by approximately 20,000 votes and provided Republicans with their Senate majority after the 2002 midterm election. Four years later, in 2006, Senator Talent lost to Claire McCaskill as the Democrats reclaimed their majority status.

Robin Carnahan is attempting to keep the family name alive in her run for Senate this year against Republican Representative Roy Blunt. Like Ohio, Missouri is a bellweather state. What happens at a national level is often felt in these two states. Missouri has been trending slightly more Republican at the national level than other states in recent years, giving their electoral votes to President Bush in 2000 and 2004, as well as John McCain in 2008 by fewer than 4,000 votes.

However, Democrats have managed to win statewide office frequently. In 2006, aside from picking up a Senate seat, they also won the governor’s mansion back from Roy Blunt’s son, Matt Blunt, who decided to not run for re-election. The fact that Robin Carnahan comes from a political dynasty in Missouri should help her chances of winning this seat from the Republicans. Her campaign is distancing itself from the Democratic Party, highlighting her independence and ability to work across the aisle. This will be one of the closest elections of 2010. You can bet on that.

Transpo, the local bus service, is seeking federal grants to develop a fixed-rail streetcar route that would connect the two tech parks and link the university with downtown, he said.

The project would use state-of-the-art, fuel-efficient gas/electric hybrid streetcars, a growing trend in some larger U.S. cities. Technological advances in the hybrid cars would negate the need for unsightly overhead electrical wires, he said.

“As we start to see companies migrate from Innovation Park to Ignition Park, it would make it easier to connect the two,” Luecke said afterward. “People could live in Eddy Street Commons, work at Ignition Park and not have to have a car.”

This project would be similar to what other cities have tried, particularly on the West Coast, to provide affordable, clean public transportation options that link central business districts to technology parks and universities. Portland, Oregon is a good example of a modern streetcar system. If the city can win federal support for the project, it could come with minimal start-up costs for the city of South Bend. While some local residents may not find this to be all that appealing, trying to attract new high income residents means that we need to upgrade our public transportation system.

Mayor Luecke also announced in his State of the City address that South Bend would compete for Google’s plan to provide ultra high speed Internet to a trial city. Using fiber optic cables, which South Bend already has developed for businesses and universities, Google would provide Internet speeds of up to 1GB per second at “competitive prices.” South Bend plans on submitting its application by the March 26 deadline.

“Congress is not operating as it should,” Bayh said at a news conference in Indianapolis. “The people’s business is not getting done.” He blamed this on increased partisanship and strident ideology in Congress. “I do not love Congress,” Bayh said. “I’m an executive at heart. I value my independence.”

Bayh cited two recent examples of issues that should have garnered bipartisan support, yet were defeated due to political reasons. The first was a deficit reduction commission that Republicans said they supported, but at the last minute 7 of them pulled out even though they co-sponsored the bill. The second was a jobs bill that failed to pass despite the still high unemployment rate.

While a lot of outsiders are going to say that Bayh retired due to an increasingly anti-incumbent mood in the country, the facts do not bear this out. Not only does he continue to be enormously popular in Indiana, he led both of his potential opponents by substantial margins (not to mention both of them are flawed candidates). Finally, Bayh had $12 million in his campaign warchest to spend as he pleased. That’s a ton of money in a medium-sized state like Indiana. He could have saturated the airwaves with ads from July until Election Day and still had money to spare. I take him for his word that his motivation was due to gridlock. Ultimately, if Bayh wants to return to Indianapolis to serve as governor, he has that opportunity now in 2012.

Senator Bayh has taken a lot of heat from liberal bloggers across the country for his centrist positions. As a resident of this state, I have to say that some of his positions (particularly on climate change) were disappointing, yet reflect a realization that Indiana stood not to benefit from cap-and-trade, but to potentially face increased energy costs. He was doing his job to stand for the interests of his state just as California’s delegation was pleading for financial assistance as their state was drowning in debt. From some of the postings that I have read on other sites, you would think that Bayh was a total pariah. In reality he voted for the stimulus and for health care reform, either of which he could have stopped had he sided with the Republicans in their opposition. It was Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana that required special treatment in order to win their votes. Bayh was a team player.

As for who will replace Bayh as the Democratic candidate for Senate, the state party will probably decide that, since the filing deadline is tomorrow. Any of Indiana’s Democratic House members would be a good pick, including Congressman Joe Donnelly representing my district (Indiana’s 2nd). The favorites seem to be either Representative Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth. Both of them come from mostly rural, Southern Indiana districts where Democrats will need to win in order to win statewide. Ironically, if Ellsworth gets the nod, he may face former Republican Rep. John Hostetler whom he beat in 2006. It should be an interesting Senate race in Indiana this year.

Research 2000 also polled President Obama. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win Indiana since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide victory. Despite a dip in support, the president is doing surprisingly well in this traditionally Republican state. His approval rating stands at 46%, only a few points below the national average of 50%, with 49% disapproving. While there is certainly room for improvement, he has a good chance of winning Indiana again in 2012 as the economy improves (and his approval rating with it).

Carpetbaggers have won in states like New York, where Hillary Clinton succeeded in 2000, but have also failed in states like Illinois where Alan Keyes was handily defeated by Barack Obama in 2004. Coats brings experience winning statewide office to the table, something his opponents for the Republican nomination don’t have. However, the last time he won an election was in 1992. In politics, that might as well be a century ago.

Real-estate contributor Barbara Corcoran ranked South Bend first among the “Top 10 Cities for Bargain Homes.” She noted that the median “price is just $89,000, and prices have been rising steadily for almost a full year now.”

There’s certainly a lot of potential growth in the South Bend area. Taking advantage of the University of Notre Dame, the city has opened a high-tech research park known as Innovation Park. Right now the city is focused on being a leader in nanotechnology. Last year Notre Dame was awarded the Midwest Academy of Nanoelectronics and Architectures, which will partner with other research universities to advance the technology. Other developments in South Bend include the newly opened Eddy Street Commons, which combines retail, shopping and dining into one multi-use district.

Here is the full Today Show list:

1. South Bend, Ind.
2. Akron, Ohio
3. Topeka, Kan.
4. New Haven, Conn.
5. Tucson, Ariz.
6. Minneapolis
7. Portland, Maine
8. Miami
9. Kingston, N.Y.
10. Trenton, N.J.