The facts are not on his side. Right-to-work states like South Carolina have a considerably higher unemployment rate than Indiana (10.5% vs. 9%) and their workers have lower wages. Daniels should get his talking points straight before he makes false and misleading claims about the jobs situation in Indiana. Unions are not the problem, Indiana Republicans’ willingness to sacrifice wages and workplace safety is the problem.

Daniels goes on to claim that, “I’d be completely opposed to this if it affected the right to organize. But every right-to-work state has unions and some of them have a higher percentage of union members than Indiana does. I’d be completely against anything that reduced the right to organize. This is only about whether you have to pay the dues or don’t.”

I’ll give the governor credit, he knows how to weasel out of his positions – at least rhetorically – even while still maintaining them. The bill has nothing to do with jobs and everything to do with killing unions. Right-to-work is a way to drain a union’s resources. If you can benefit from a union and not have to pay for it then who would offer up their dues? It’s called free-riding. For a party that would love to see all resistance to corporate power crushed, right-to-work makes a good deal of sense.

As a resident of Indiana, I must say that I am deeply disappointed with the way the Republican Party has conducted itself during the debt negotiations. Hardworking Hoosiers are being asked to sacrifice trillions of dollars worth of cuts from the federal budget, yet Republicans cannot ask the wealthiest to spare an extra dime. If the problem of deficit reduction is as urgent as some far-right Republicans claim it to be, then it should be the patriotic duty of these Americans to pay their fair share in taxes.

Shared sacrifice is an American value. It is unseemly to have a hedge fund manager pay a lower rate in taxes than a single mom that can barely make it by on two jobs. To only ask middle class and poor Americans to take the hit is absolutely unacceptable. Challenge the radicals in the Republican Party who are unyielding in their support of the wealthy. Please show some leadership by passing a debt ceiling bill that does not only target the middle class for budget cuts, but also requires top income earners to sacrifice a little as well. It’s the American thing to do.

Kind regards,
Kyle Bell

2:17 a.m.: “California is always a little different.” -Carly Fiorina …. Way to bash your state in defeat, Carly.

2:04 a.m.: Going to bed on this note – the Tea Party has likely cost the Republicans the Senate. Harry Reid beating Sharron Angle and Chris Coons beating Christine O’Donnell are two seats that would have gone to the GOP if they had nominated the candidates that the NRSC had backed. Thank you Sarah Palin for helping make sure the Senate stays in Democratic hands!

1:50 a.m.: Now that I’ve had more time, I have looked at where the biggest Republican gains took place. The Midwest and South were the biggest losses. New York state and Ohio were the biggest overall shifts with 5 seats, followed by 4 in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Virginia; 2 in Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin, and Indiana. That’s a net loss of 19 seats in Midwestern states – half of what Republicans needed to win the House. Throw in Ike Skelton’s loss in Missouri and the losses of the at-large seats in North and South Dakota and the Democrats lost 22 seats in the greater Midwest (I included Pennsylvania since culturally they are pretty similar).

1:30 a.m.: AP is saying that they accidentally put 30,000 votes into the Ken Buck column in Colorado that should have gone to Michael Bennet. If that is the case, the Democrat would have a 20,000 vote lead. Pretty big screw up there!

1:10 a.m.: Despite losing the governorship and two Senate races overwhelmingly, Republicans picked up five seats in New York: 13, 19, 20, 24, 29. I guess I was wrong in thinking the top of the ballot would help these vulnerable Democrats. As I mentioned with Illinois, these are low hanging fruit for 2012.

1:03 a.m.: I beg Sarah Palin to run for president in 2012. We’ll see a 60 seat shift back towards the Democrats if she does.

12:50 a.m.: 58% of Californians voted AGAINST Proposition 23 that would have removed the carbon restrictions in the state.

12:35 a.m.: Quick House update – Democrats will probably lose anywhere from 55-60 seats when all is said and done. Currently, it stands at 52 seats, which is where things were in 1994. That puts 2010 in the history books as one of the larger wave elections.

12:30 a.m.: Chuck Todd believes that Michael Bennet will benefit from Denver suburban votes that have not yet come in. He currently leads by about 10,000 votes. In Florida, Alex Sink trails by 2 points against Republican Rick Scott. Only half of the vote has been counted out of Miami-Dade County and about a third left in Palm Beach County. Both are heavily Democratic counties with large populations. Sink could still give Democrats a pick-up in a very large state.

12:25 a.m.: Love this site – http://whatthefuckhasobamadonesofar.com/.

12:23 p.m.: Joe Sestak is conceding the Pennsylvania Senate race. He lost be a razor thin 51-49 margin. I have a feeling that this guy will be back. Incredible candidate and a good man.

12:06 p.m.: Carl Paladino has literally threatened to beat New York’s next governor over the head with a baseball bat if he doesn’t do what he wants him to, even though he only got 35% of the vote. Can you get more crazy?

12:00 p.m.: If the current numbers hold up, Republicans will control 11 of Illinois’ 19 House seats. That’s a pick-up of 4 seats in Obama’s backyard. The good news for Democrats is that they will be low-hanging fruit in 2012.

11:37 p.m.: More disappointing news out of Indiana – Democrats have lost control of the House. Republicans now control the Indiana House, Senate and Governor’s Mansion. This means that they can push through any bills that they want without opposition. It also means that they will control the redistricting process. In all likelihood it means that they will try to squeeze Joe Donnelly out of his seat by excluding a city like Kokomo or perhaps some of LaPorte County out of Indiana 2. They already won Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth’s seat in Southern Indiana, but may try to shore up those districts with more Republican voters as well.

11:21 p.m.: Shifting gears to the gubernatorial races across the country, independents are faring quite well. Rhode Island’s next governor will be Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican Senator that lost his race in 2006. He endorsed Barack Obama for president in 2008 and had the favor returned when President Obama refused to endorse the Democratic candidate in this year’s race. Independent Eliot Cutler won by 5 points in Maine. Independents also waged serious campaigns in Colorado and Minnesota, winning over 10 percent of the vote. Independents are no longer just spoilers, they are serious contenders in races where the two major party candidates are unpopular.

11:15 p.m.: Carl Paladino, the Tea Party psychopath that threatened to “take out” a reporter, has lost the New York governor’s race by 25 points to Democrat Andrew Cuomo. He will probably cost the Republicans a few House seats in the state. Tea Party candidates definitely do not hold sway in Democratic states.

10:59 p.m.: Not looking good for Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois. Almost all of the vote is in from Chicago (Cook County) and he is trailing by about 13,000 votes. Also not good news: he lost the Chicago suburbs by a wide margin. Mark Kirk won Lake County 57-39, McHenry County 59-34, Kane County 56-37, Dupage County 59-36, and Will County 52-41. Why does this matter? Anyone that knows Chicago knows that the suburbs have overtaken the central city in political importance. They have a 2-to-1 population advantage, making up a majority of the Chicago metro’s over 9 million citizens. Kirk is raking in the votes in this all-important part of the region.

10:40 p.m.: Senator Russ Feingold, a quirky liberal that voted against the Wall Street bailout, has lost his race to Republican businessman Ron Johnson. This just goes to show that voters sometimes don’t care about specific votes in Congress. This appears to be a vote against the Democratic Party in Wisconsin, not against Russ Feingold. On the downside, Ron Johnson is a Tea Partier that has said he would support drilling for oil in Lake Michigan. Not the type of Senator any Democrat would want to see take office in a state that voted nearly 60% for Barack Obama.

10:35 p.m.: Democrats were worried that they might lose at least one of their two members of Congress in Maine. Polling seemed to confirm that they were in trouble. It didn’t happen. So far the Democrats in those races have double-digit leads. The only Democrat to lose in New England was Carol-Shea Porter in New Hampshire. The other New Hampshire seat, left open by Paul Hodes who was running for the Senate (and lost), has switched parties as well. New England remains solidly Democratic.

10:30 p.m.: Ben Chandler is winning Kentucky 6, which includes the city of Lexington, by only 600 votes. Expect a recount here.

10:14 p.m.: Brad Ellsworth lost his home county, where Evansville is located, to Dan Coats by an amazing 8 points. Very poor campaign run by the Democrats in Indiana.

9:57 p.m.: Illinois Senate race is looking good for Democrats. Alexi Giannoulias was polling in the low 40s, but currently holds 50.5% of the vote to Republican Mark Kirk’s 44.3%. Interestingly, most polls had Kirk about where he is right now. If these numbers hold up, it will show that the undecided voters broke for the Democrats.

9:42 p.m.: Big news for Democrats in Pennsylvania. A state that looked pretty good for Republicans currently has Democrat Joe Sestak up 54.3% to 45.7%. Sestak is holding strong in the Philadelphia suburbs, winning Philly by 150,000 votes, and Pittsburgh by 45,000 votes. The race will tighten up, but right now, it is looking like Sestak upsets Toomey in a state the Republicans had counted on winning. Only a few weeks ago Toomey was leading by double digits in the polls.

9:37 p.m.: Christine O’Donnell, the Tea Party candidate that cost the Republicans a Senate seat in Delaware has declared that she “won”. “We have won. We were victorious because the Delaware political system will never be the same,” O’Donnell said in her concession speech. She lost 57-40% to Democrat Chris Coons.

9:24 p.m.: “You lie!” Republican Representative Joe Wilson is losing his seat in South Carolina. Hopefully these numbers hold up.

9:21 p.m.: NBC is projecting that the Democrats have lost the House of Representatives. So far Republicans have only officially picked up 8 seats out of the 39 that they need. Depending on how the West Coast comes in, it will either be a bloodbath or a fairly close divide in the House. If you haven’t voted yet and live out in California or other West Coast states, go vote.

8:58 p.m.: Republicans are coming on strong in Indiana. After winning the Senate race early on, two Southern Indiana districts – 8 and 9 – have been called for Republicans. One of them was held by incumbent Baron Hill. As I posted in the election guide, Democrats needed to win this district if they were going to hold onto the House. They are losing it badly – by 15 points. Democrat Joe Donnelly is winning by a slim two thousand vote lead.

8:51 p.m.: Alan Grayson has lost his Orlando-area district. Right now it’s about a 25 point wipe-out.

8:34 p.m.: NBC News is calling the West Virginia Senate race for Democrat Joe Manchin. Out the window goes Republican hopes of winning the Senate.

8:30 p.m.: Republicans picked up their second Senate seat. Democrat Blanche Lincoln loses her seat after badly trailing throughout the campaign. No surprise here. Democrats have won Connecticut’s Senate race. Richard Blumenthal will defeat Linda McMahon, the former WWE CEO.

8:23 p.m.: Democrat John Yarmuth has held on to his seat in Kentucky 3.

8:10 p.m.: John Carney won Delaware’s open seat, giving the Democrats a pick-up, the first pick-up of the night for either party. Republicans now need to win 40 seats from Democrats in order to gain the majority.

8:07 p.m.: MSNBC keeps bringing up Evan Bayh retiring from the Senate and taking a $10 million war chest with him. There’s no doubt that Bayh would have won and kept the state in the Democratic column. My guess: Bayh is running for governor again in 2012. Mitch Daniels will leave office term-limited and leaves an opening for Democrats.

8:02 p.m.: Some good news for Democrats: Ted Strickland is leading in Ohio’s governor race. Too close to call in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, which Republicans were slightly favored to win. They still might, but it should be close. We had it rated as a Toss-Up. West Virginia is looking good for the Dems as well.

7:35 p.m.: Ohio has been called, as expected, for Rob Portman. The Republicans hold onto the seat of retiring Senator George Voinovich.

7:06 p.m.: We are just getting started with poll closings tonight. No surprises here. Indiana is projected to be the Republican’s first pick-up of the night. Kentucky has also been called for Rand Paul. In good news for Democrats, Joe Donnelly leads in St. Joseph County with 63% to Jackie Walorski’s 33%. If that number holds up, it will be a blow-out in Indiana 2.

“Dan Coats chose to lobby for unsavory entities such as Bank of America, which participated in some of the worst excesses that triggered the financial crisis, and Harvest Natural Resources, an oil company owned by the socialist country of Venezuela,” the campaign report reads. They also point out that Coats received only 39 percent of the vote among Republicans. While Coats won the GOP primary, 61 percent of Republicans chose someone else.

It was already clear prior to this that Ellsworth would be running as the former sheriff that he was rather than the Congressman from Southern Indiana that he currently is. It was also pretty obvious that Dan Coats’ role as a lobbyist for banking interests and foreign governments would play heavily into the campaign. You can count on this race in Indiana between Ellsworth and Coats to be one of the most hard fought in the nation this fall.

A special election in the 3rd District to complete Souder’s term through this year hasn’t yet been set by Governor Daniels. Republican and Democratic committeemen will pick the special election nominees through caucuses. Democrats are expected to pick their nominee for the fall’s general election, Tom Hayhurst, to run in the special election. Hayhurst gave Souder a run for his money in 2006, coming within ten points of victory, one of the closest elections that Souder ever faced in this heavily Republican district.

Primary Results

Dan Coats – 39%
Marlin A. Stutzman – 29%
John N. Hostettler – 23%
Don Bates, Jr. – 5%
Richard Behney – 4%

99% of precincts reporting

The vote was a test of the Tea Party appeal in Indiana. Marlin Stutzman started the race as a no-name candidate, but surged with support from the likes of far-right Republicans like Jim DeMint and Mike Huckabee. The fact that someone like Marlin Stutzman managed nearly 30% of the vote, with no name recognition across the state, has to be startling to establishment Republicans looking to pick up Bayh’s seat.

The establishment candidate in this race – Dan Coats – only managed 40 percent support. Will Tea Partiers rally around a Senator-turned-lobbyist? Will they support a candidate who was deemed a “carpetbagger” by his primary opponents for moving to Indiana from Virginia only to run for this seat? Most of them likely will, but uniting the Republican Party in Indiana will certainly be much more difficult than it will for the Democrats, who did not have a bruising primary. That said, Coats currently leads in statewide polling. Brad Ellsworth, meanwhile, has yet to run a statewide ad. I fully expect this to be a close race come November.

Meanwhile, across the border in Ohio, Democrats nominated Lt. Governor Lee Fisher to take on former Bush budget director Rob Portman. He defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Ohio is a mirror image of Indiana, where retiring Republican Senator George Voinovich is leaving an open seat for a possible Democratic pickup opportunity. The most recent polling shows Lee Fisher slightly ahead of Rob Portman, although this will likely be a close one to watch as well.

Indiana
Incumbent: Evan Bayh (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (Democrat), Former Rep. John Hostettler, Former Senator Dan Coats and State Senator Marlin Stutzman (Republicans)
Prediction: Toss-up

Evan Bayh was elected in 1998 after serving two terms as Indiana’s governor. Dan Coats, who is considering a challenge to Bayh, retired in 1998 to avoid facing the popular Democrat in the general election. Bayh went on to win over 63% of the vote against the mayor of Fort Wayne. In 2004, despite President Bush beating John Kerry by over 20% in the state, Bayh was re-elected with 61%.

Since becoming Indiana’s junior senator, Bayh has taken a centrist stance (some would say even conservative). From 2001 to 2005 he was the head of the Democratic Leadership Council, which tries to push for moderate policies and candidates. Senator Bayh was one of three final picks to be President Obama’s Vice President (the other two being Tim Kaine and Joe Biden).

When I first wrote a draft of my prediction, I had this seat as “Leans Democratic”. That all changed when Senator Bayh announced in February that he would be retiring. The fact that a former senator is in the mix to win the Republican nomination and that Indiana has a conservative tilt make this a challenge for Democrats in the fall.

That said, they have recruited a top candidate in Brad Ellsworth, a former Sheriff of Vanderburgh County and a current Congressman from Southern Indiana. He won his seat handily in 2006, defeating incumbent John Hostettler, who lost his House seat in a rural part of Southern Indiana due to his far-right conservative views. As a candidate for the Senate, Hostettler would probably not fare much better statewide than he did in his former district.

Coats has already shown that he can win statewide, but that was over ten years ago. He has since been a lobbyist in Washington, a point that Democrats will drive home throughout the campaign. Another potential major downside to a Coats nomination for the Republicans is that he does not even live in Indiana anymore. He has been a resident of Virginia since he left the Senate. Ellsworth will certainly use that in television ads to paint Coats as a carpetbagger that only lives in Indiana when it is convenient.

Illinois
Incumbent: Roland Burris (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (Democrat), Rep. Mark Kirk (Republican)
Prediction: Leans Democratic

This is a seat that should never have been even considered competitive. That is until the former Governor Rod Blagojevich tried to sell Barack Obama’s former Senate seat to the highest bidder. Before being impeached, Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris. At first, Democrats in the Senate refused to seat him and the Secretary of State in Illinois would not sign his certification. Ultimately he was allowed to be seated, but decided against running for a full-term due to poor fundraising and poll numbers.

Enter Republican Mark Kirk, a suburban Congressman from Chicago. Known as a moderate, he voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade proposal only to say it was a mistake when voters within his own party chastised him for the vote. However, now that he has won the Republican primary, expect him to tack back to the center. Alexi Giannoulias is a young, telegenic politician, somewhat similar to Barack Obama. He currently leads in the polls by a healthy 8 points. Yet for a state as Democratic as Illinois, that isn’t all that comforting. The Blagojevich scandal and uncertainy surrounding the economy may mean that this race would be competitive. For now, it leans towards the Democrats.

Wisconsin
Incumbent: Russ Feingold (D)
Challenger(s): Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall, Businessman Dave Westlake
Prediction: Leans Democratic

Russ Feingold campaigned in 1992 on a promise to rely on citizens from Wisconsin for his campaign contributions, that he would raise his children in Wisconsin and hire most of his staff with people from the state. When he ran for re-election in 1998, he imposed a spending limit of $3.8 million, which is one dollar for each citizen in the state. In 2001, he was the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act. He joined John McCain in 2002 to pass McCain-Feingold, a landmark campaign finance law that capped the amount political parties could raise from individuals.

All of these have made Feingold a target of the Republican Party. His liberal positions in a state that has been trending more towards the center (with the exception of 2008) make him vulnerable to attacks from the right. Yet he has survived, winning by 12 percent in 2004 as George Bush nearly carried the state. He even won counties that George Bush also won. Despite his liberalism, his connectedness to the state seems to have paid dividends. For that reason, Wisconsin leans Democratic in 2010.

Ohio
Incumbent: George Voinovich (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (Democrats), Former Rep. Rob Portman (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-Up

Ohio is the ultimate swing-state. It is a true microcosm of the United States. The Buckeye State has big cities, medium sized cities, small cities, small towns and rural farmland. While most of the state would consider themselves to be Midwesterners, Southern Ohioans have a drawl more common in the South. It has college towns, beaches, farmland and declining manufacturing centers.

It also has volatile politics. Ohio went slightly for George Bush in 2000 and 2004, but swung towards the Democrats in 2006′s midterm elections as they captured House seats and a Senate seat, along with the governor’s mansion. Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Ohio, ensuring a sweep of the entire Midwest. If there is a Republican comeback of any sort, it will have to start in Ohio defending this seat.

This is an expensive state to compete in. With major markets like Cleveland, Cincinatti and Columbus, along with medium-sized cities like Toledo and Dayton, the two parties could easily spend a good $15-$20 million here. Democrats spending money on a seat currently held by Republicans can help draw funds away from their vulnerable incumbents such as Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and others. It doesn’t hurt that Republicans will use spending as a major campaign theme. Their leading candidate, Rob Portman, presided over record deficits as the budget director for George Bush.

Iowa
Incumbent: Chuck Grassley (R)
Challenger(s): Lawyer Roxanne Conlin, Former State Legislator Bob Krause
Prediction: Likely Republican

While President Obama sailed to victory in both the Iowa Caucus and general election in 2008, this year’s Senate race is going to be a tough one for Democrats to pull off. “As a good farmer, Senator Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops,” Krause told supporters in Des Moines. Chuck Grassley has been around for five terms and shows no signs of retiring.

Grassley famously participated in healthcare “negotiations” during the summer with Democratic Senator Max Baucus, only to spread malicious falsehoods about the legislation when he met with voters during townhall meetings. This doesn’t seem to have hurt his support any. His Democratic challengers will undoubtedly be vastly outspent in campaign ads and the state party will be focused on retaining the governor’s mansion in the state.

Missouri
Incumbent: Kit Bond (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (Democrat), Rep. Roy Blunt (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-up

The Carnahan family is to Missouri what the Bayh family is to Indiana. Governor Mel Carnahan served from 1993 to 2000 and decided to run for the Senate. Unfortunately, shortly before the election, he died in a plane crash. Yet his name remained on the ballot and amazingly he managed to win against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (yes, the guy that George W. Bush would name Attorney General). Mel Carnahan was the first person to be elected posthumously to the United States Senate.

They still needed to fill the sit, though, so the new governor appointed his wife, Jean Carnahan. Ultimately she decided to run in a special election in 2002 to fill out the remainder of Mel’s term. She lost to Jim Talent by approximately 20,000 votes and provided Republicans with their Senate majority after the 2002 midterm election. Four years later, in 2006, Senator Talent lost to Claire McCaskill as the Democrats reclaimed their majority status.

Robin Carnahan is attempting to keep the family name alive in her run for Senate this year against Republican Representative Roy Blunt. Like Ohio, Missouri is a bellweather state. What happens at a national level is often felt in these two states. Missouri has been trending slightly more Republican at the national level than other states in recent years, giving their electoral votes to President Bush in 2000 and 2004, as well as John McCain in 2008 by fewer than 4,000 votes.

However, Democrats have managed to win statewide office frequently. In 2006, aside from picking up a Senate seat, they also won the governor’s mansion back from Roy Blunt’s son, Matt Blunt, who decided to not run for re-election. The fact that Robin Carnahan comes from a political dynasty in Missouri should help her chances of winning this seat from the Republicans. Her campaign is distancing itself from the Democratic Party, highlighting her independence and ability to work across the aisle. This will be one of the closest elections of 2010. You can bet on that.

Transpo, the local bus service, is seeking federal grants to develop a fixed-rail streetcar route that would connect the two tech parks and link the university with downtown, he said.

The project would use state-of-the-art, fuel-efficient gas/electric hybrid streetcars, a growing trend in some larger U.S. cities. Technological advances in the hybrid cars would negate the need for unsightly overhead electrical wires, he said.

“As we start to see companies migrate from Innovation Park to Ignition Park, it would make it easier to connect the two,” Luecke said afterward. “People could live in Eddy Street Commons, work at Ignition Park and not have to have a car.”

This project would be similar to what other cities have tried, particularly on the West Coast, to provide affordable, clean public transportation options that link central business districts to technology parks and universities. Portland, Oregon is a good example of a modern streetcar system. If the city can win federal support for the project, it could come with minimal start-up costs for the city of South Bend. While some local residents may not find this to be all that appealing, trying to attract new high income residents means that we need to upgrade our public transportation system.

Mayor Luecke also announced in his State of the City address that South Bend would compete for Google’s plan to provide ultra high speed Internet to a trial city. Using fiber optic cables, which South Bend already has developed for businesses and universities, Google would provide Internet speeds of up to 1GB per second at “competitive prices.” South Bend plans on submitting its application by the March 26 deadline.