Colorado
Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D)
Challenger(s): Ken Buck (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Colorado is likely to be the only real competitive race in this entire region. That said, Democrats have a slight advantage with the defeat of the party’s pick, Jane Norton, to Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. Like other Tea Party candidates across the country, Buck is a weaker candidate in the general election and could help Democrats hold seats that were otherwise vulnerable. Senator Michael Bennet, who had never held elected office before, was appointed after President Obama nominated Ken Salazar to the Department of the Interior.

Idaho
Incumbent: Mike Crapo (R)
Challenger(s): Tom Sullivan (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

The last time Mike Crapo was up for re-election, in 2004, he won 99 percent of the vote. The other 1 percent went to write-in candidates. No Democrat challenged him that year. While Crapo has a challenger this year from Democrat Tom Sullivan, polls have shown the incumbent with a 40 point lead. This seat is safe for the GOP barring a Larry Craig-like controversy.

Kansas
Incumbent: Sam Brownback (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Jerry Moran (R), Lisa Johnston (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in order to seek the governor’s mansion in Kansas. His likely replacement is Representative Jerry Moran, who defeated Representative Todd Tiahrt. Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt and was featured in some of his campaign ads, yet it was not enough. No Democrat has held a Senate seat in Kansas since the 1930s.

North Dakota
Incumbent: Byron Dorgan (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Governor John Hoeven (R), Tracy Potter (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

One of the early signs that Democrats were in trouble came when Senator Byron Dorgan, a moderate from North Dakota, decided to retire instead of face a tough re-election battle to the state’s popular Republican governor. With Dorgan out of the race, Republicans are all but assured of picking up the seat. Democrats had managed to hold the two North Dakota Senate seats since 1987 and at least one of the seats since 1960.

Oklahoma
Incumbent: Tom Coburn (R)
Challenger(s): Jim Rogers (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Tom Coburn was elected to Congress as 1994’s “Republican Revolution”. He moved to the Upper Chamber in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote. Coburn’s seat has been held by Republicans since 1968. The last time a Democrat held a Senate seat in Oklahoma was in 1994, before James Inhofe assumed it from retiring Senator David Boren. Expect Coburn to crush his Democratic competition in November.

South Dakota
Incumbent: John Thune (R)
Challenger(s): No Challenger
Prediction: Likely Republican

There is no uncertainty around South Dakota’s Senate seat in 2010. John Thune will cruise to re-election as no Democrats have filed to challenge him. Thune, a possible candidate for president in 2012 or 2016, defeated Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a slim margin: 51-49%. The only person that could have even made this race competitive would have been Daschle, but seeing as he had tax woes and this election cycle seems to be favoring Republicans, even he would have had a difficult time unseating Thune.

Utah
Incumbent: Bob Bennett (R) – Defeated in Primary
Challenger(s): Mike Lee (R), Sam Granato (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

You can hardly get more Republican than Utah. The real race in this state was not the upcoming general election but instead the Republican primary. Conservatives ousted sitting Senator Bob Bennett, a mainstream conservative who voted with the party over 90 percent of the time. Conservative voting records only go so far for the Tea Party crowd when you vote for bank bailouts as Bennett did in 2008.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.

North Carolina is one of those states. Senator Richard Burr has suffered from poor approval ratings throughout his first term. Nearly every current poll has him under 50 percent support, some as low as 39%. While he continues to lead his Democratic opponent, Elaine Marshall, the gap between them is fast dwindling. This race is being changed from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up”. As we previously noted, Senator Burr voted against an extension of unemployment benefits in a state that has nearly double digit unemployment. This is not likely to play well with voters in North Carolina.

Illinois is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”. Alexi Giannoulias has taken a slight lead in the polls. Republican Mark Kirk had led or tied Giannoulias in the polls until revelations that he exaggerated his military service emerged. Kirk claimed that he received a military award that he did not. Kirk also claimed that he was a nursery school teacher. However, a member of the school said that, “he was never, ever considered a teacher,” but instead played with the children. Given that this is Obama’s adopted home state and the Democratic tilt of Illinois, Giannoulias should manage to win, although it will be somewhat close.

Below is a map of the Southern, Great Plains, Mountain West and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first three election projection updates:

Map

Indiana
Incumbent: Evan Bayh (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (Democrat), Former Rep. John Hostettler, Former Senator Dan Coats and State Senator Marlin Stutzman (Republicans)
Prediction: Toss-up

Evan Bayh was elected in 1998 after serving two terms as Indiana’s governor. Dan Coats, who is considering a challenge to Bayh, retired in 1998 to avoid facing the popular Democrat in the general election. Bayh went on to win over 63% of the vote against the mayor of Fort Wayne. In 2004, despite President Bush beating John Kerry by over 20% in the state, Bayh was re-elected with 61%.

Since becoming Indiana’s junior senator, Bayh has taken a centrist stance (some would say even conservative). From 2001 to 2005 he was the head of the Democratic Leadership Council, which tries to push for moderate policies and candidates. Senator Bayh was one of three final picks to be President Obama’s Vice President (the other two being Tim Kaine and Joe Biden).

When I first wrote a draft of my prediction, I had this seat as “Leans Democratic”. That all changed when Senator Bayh announced in February that he would be retiring. The fact that a former senator is in the mix to win the Republican nomination and that Indiana has a conservative tilt make this a challenge for Democrats in the fall.

That said, they have recruited a top candidate in Brad Ellsworth, a former Sheriff of Vanderburgh County and a current Congressman from Southern Indiana. He won his seat handily in 2006, defeating incumbent John Hostettler, who lost his House seat in a rural part of Southern Indiana due to his far-right conservative views. As a candidate for the Senate, Hostettler would probably not fare much better statewide than he did in his former district.

Coats has already shown that he can win statewide, but that was over ten years ago. He has since been a lobbyist in Washington, a point that Democrats will drive home throughout the campaign. Another potential major downside to a Coats nomination for the Republicans is that he does not even live in Indiana anymore. He has been a resident of Virginia since he left the Senate. Ellsworth will certainly use that in television ads to paint Coats as a carpetbagger that only lives in Indiana when it is convenient.

Illinois
Incumbent: Roland Burris (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (Democrat), Rep. Mark Kirk (Republican)
Prediction: Leans Democratic

This is a seat that should never have been even considered competitive. That is until the former Governor Rod Blagojevich tried to sell Barack Obama’s former Senate seat to the highest bidder. Before being impeached, Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris. At first, Democrats in the Senate refused to seat him and the Secretary of State in Illinois would not sign his certification. Ultimately he was allowed to be seated, but decided against running for a full-term due to poor fundraising and poll numbers.

Enter Republican Mark Kirk, a suburban Congressman from Chicago. Known as a moderate, he voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade proposal only to say it was a mistake when voters within his own party chastised him for the vote. However, now that he has won the Republican primary, expect him to tack back to the center. Alexi Giannoulias is a young, telegenic politician, somewhat similar to Barack Obama. He currently leads in the polls by a healthy 8 points. Yet for a state as Democratic as Illinois, that isn’t all that comforting. The Blagojevich scandal and uncertainy surrounding the economy may mean that this race would be competitive. For now, it leans towards the Democrats.

Wisconsin
Incumbent: Russ Feingold (D)
Challenger(s): Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall, Businessman Dave Westlake
Prediction: Leans Democratic

Russ Feingold campaigned in 1992 on a promise to rely on citizens from Wisconsin for his campaign contributions, that he would raise his children in Wisconsin and hire most of his staff with people from the state. When he ran for re-election in 1998, he imposed a spending limit of $3.8 million, which is one dollar for each citizen in the state. In 2001, he was the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act. He joined John McCain in 2002 to pass McCain-Feingold, a landmark campaign finance law that capped the amount political parties could raise from individuals.

All of these have made Feingold a target of the Republican Party. His liberal positions in a state that has been trending more towards the center (with the exception of 2008) make him vulnerable to attacks from the right. Yet he has survived, winning by 12 percent in 2004 as George Bush nearly carried the state. He even won counties that George Bush also won. Despite his liberalism, his connectedness to the state seems to have paid dividends. For that reason, Wisconsin leans Democratic in 2010.

Ohio
Incumbent: George Voinovich (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (Democrats), Former Rep. Rob Portman (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-Up

Ohio is the ultimate swing-state. It is a true microcosm of the United States. The Buckeye State has big cities, medium sized cities, small cities, small towns and rural farmland. While most of the state would consider themselves to be Midwesterners, Southern Ohioans have a drawl more common in the South. It has college towns, beaches, farmland and declining manufacturing centers.

It also has volatile politics. Ohio went slightly for George Bush in 2000 and 2004, but swung towards the Democrats in 2006′s midterm elections as they captured House seats and a Senate seat, along with the governor’s mansion. Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Ohio, ensuring a sweep of the entire Midwest. If there is a Republican comeback of any sort, it will have to start in Ohio defending this seat.

This is an expensive state to compete in. With major markets like Cleveland, Cincinatti and Columbus, along with medium-sized cities like Toledo and Dayton, the two parties could easily spend a good $15-$20 million here. Democrats spending money on a seat currently held by Republicans can help draw funds away from their vulnerable incumbents such as Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and others. It doesn’t hurt that Republicans will use spending as a major campaign theme. Their leading candidate, Rob Portman, presided over record deficits as the budget director for George Bush.

Iowa
Incumbent: Chuck Grassley (R)
Challenger(s): Lawyer Roxanne Conlin, Former State Legislator Bob Krause
Prediction: Likely Republican

While President Obama sailed to victory in both the Iowa Caucus and general election in 2008, this year’s Senate race is going to be a tough one for Democrats to pull off. “As a good farmer, Senator Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops,” Krause told supporters in Des Moines. Chuck Grassley has been around for five terms and shows no signs of retiring.

Grassley famously participated in healthcare “negotiations” during the summer with Democratic Senator Max Baucus, only to spread malicious falsehoods about the legislation when he met with voters during townhall meetings. This doesn’t seem to have hurt his support any. His Democratic challengers will undoubtedly be vastly outspent in campaign ads and the state party will be focused on retaining the governor’s mansion in the state.

Missouri
Incumbent: Kit Bond (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (Democrat), Rep. Roy Blunt (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-up

The Carnahan family is to Missouri what the Bayh family is to Indiana. Governor Mel Carnahan served from 1993 to 2000 and decided to run for the Senate. Unfortunately, shortly before the election, he died in a plane crash. Yet his name remained on the ballot and amazingly he managed to win against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (yes, the guy that George W. Bush would name Attorney General). Mel Carnahan was the first person to be elected posthumously to the United States Senate.

They still needed to fill the sit, though, so the new governor appointed his wife, Jean Carnahan. Ultimately she decided to run in a special election in 2002 to fill out the remainder of Mel’s term. She lost to Jim Talent by approximately 20,000 votes and provided Republicans with their Senate majority after the 2002 midterm election. Four years later, in 2006, Senator Talent lost to Claire McCaskill as the Democrats reclaimed their majority status.

Robin Carnahan is attempting to keep the family name alive in her run for Senate this year against Republican Representative Roy Blunt. Like Ohio, Missouri is a bellweather state. What happens at a national level is often felt in these two states. Missouri has been trending slightly more Republican at the national level than other states in recent years, giving their electoral votes to President Bush in 2000 and 2004, as well as John McCain in 2008 by fewer than 4,000 votes.

However, Democrats have managed to win statewide office frequently. In 2006, aside from picking up a Senate seat, they also won the governor’s mansion back from Roy Blunt’s son, Matt Blunt, who decided to not run for re-election. The fact that Robin Carnahan comes from a political dynasty in Missouri should help her chances of winning this seat from the Republicans. Her campaign is distancing itself from the Democratic Party, highlighting her independence and ability to work across the aisle. This will be one of the closest elections of 2010. You can bet on that.

The other major races were for governor where incumbent Pat Quinn is fighting for his political survival. Current results have it too close to call. With 96% of precincts reporting, Quinn stood at 50.3% of the vote, with challenger Dan Hynes at 49.7%. Only 5,000 votes separate them. It is possible that we might not have a result until the morning – or perhaps longer if the race continues to tighten. If Quinn loses, it will be in large part due to the fact that he a.) replaced Rod Blagojevich after his indictment and impeachment b.) presides over a budget deficit of $8.95 billion that is largely outside of his control.

On the Republican side there is a similar story. Bill Brady has a tentative lead of 20.6% with Kirk Dillard behind by only 2,000 votes at 20.3%. If Brady ends up winning, it will be a huge upset as a Chicago Tribune poll taken just a couple weeks ago had him at only 9% in fourth place. The leader in that poll, party chairman Mark McKenna, is currently in third place with 19% of the vote. This just goes to show that low turnout primaries can swing in crazy directions. It’s all about motivating your supporters to go out and vote.

Finally, in the race to replace Mark Kirk in Illinois’s 10th Congressional District, 38 year old Dan Seals, an University of Chicago MBA grad, will win the Democratic nomination for a third straight time. Seals lost to Kirk in 2006 by 6 points, 53% to 47%. Their rematch in 2008 was also 53% to 47%. This is a district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and should be a good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

*Edit*

It looks like Pat Quinn will probably squeak by with a win. His lead has increased to approximately 7,000 votes with 98% of precincts reporting. He’s already declared victory, yet Hynes promises to fight on. Definitely may have a recount here. On the Republican side, only 500 votes separate Brady and Dillard. This could certainly see a recount as well.

Also worth noting are the numbers of votes for the two parties. 892,000 voters in Illinois cast a ballot for one of the two Democrats for governor. 757,000 cast ballots for Republican candidates for governor. In the Senate race today 880,000 voted for Democratic candidates, while 732,000 voted for Republican candidates. That’s a 150,000 advantage for Democrats.

Partisans tend to be the ones to vote in primaries (and for that matter, midterm elections). That said, whoever manages to win a bulk of independents will probably win the general election. Mark Kirk certainly has the chance to appeal to independent voters if his Republican base doesn’t force him to move to the right. Conservative Republicans simply can’t win elections in Illinois.

In the race to challenge incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, Republicans have three candidates to choose from. Among them are Campbell, who switched from the governor’s race to the Senate race. It appears that was a good move as he currently leads his two rivals, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Teabag candidate Chuck DeVore. PPIC finds that Campbell has 27%, 16% for Fiorina, and a distant third for DeVore at 8%. Fiorina has positioned herself as a moderate alternative to the ultra-conservative DeVore, but has not gained much traction. While Fiorina was the early favorite, particularly of the establishment, that is clearly no longer the case.

The general election is shaping up to be a Democratic win, though, as President Obama enjoys a 61% approval rating in the state (34% disapproval). That’s considerably higher than much of the rest of the country and indicates that the party’s coalition is holding up – at least in the Golden State. Compare that to Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger whose approval rating is in George W. Bush territory – only 30% approve and 60% disapprove. Barbara Boxer has an approval rating just below 50% at 49% with 44% saying that they disapprove.

The other major poll out is of the Illinois primary for Senate, which will be held tomorrow. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, the State Treasurer, leads the pack with 31% support, compared to 23% for Hoffman, and 23% for Jackson. The Republican Party is set to nominate the moderate Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, a Chicago suburbanite that voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade bill but now says that he opposes it. While his support for those policies helped him in his Democratic-leaning Chicago suburb district, it is not popular at all with Republicans. That said, Kirk manages to poll better than both Hoffman and Jackson in this heavily Democratic state. Either of them winning the primary puts this seat once held by President Obama in serious jeopardy. The general election polls are below:

42% Giannoulias, 34% Kirk
37% Kirk, 36% Hoffman
38% Kirk, 36% Jackson

While Giannoulias leads Kirk by a healthy 8%, his two competitors are in extremely tight races with Kirk. Also decided on Tuesday will be the candidates to replace Mark Kirk in his suburban Chicago district, as well as competitive primaries for governor in both parties.

The Chicago Tribune polled the race, which is set for February 2, 2010. Governor Quinn leads with 44% support, while Dan Hynes trails by only 4 points at 40% support. There are a large number of voters that are still undecided, leaving the race wide open. If Dan Hynes sounds like a familiar name, it is because he ran against Barack Obama in the Democratic Senate primary in 2004.

The Republicans are also going to the polls on February 2 to determine their candidate for governor. Andy McKenna, the former Republican Party Chairman in Illinois, has a tentative lead of 19% over Jim Ryan, who is staking 18% of the vote. Kirk Dillard, a former judge and current member of the Illinois State Senate, trails with 14% of the vote. Dillard is notable for having supported President Obama during the 2008 presidential campaign, being featured in an ad in Iowa.

With the Blagojevich scandal and budget cuts, one would think that the Republicans would have a decent shot at winning the Governor’s Mansion in Illinois. However, the GOP has an extremely weak bench in the state with zero statewide elected officials and dwindling members in the House. Democrats are looking to pick up Republican Mark Kirk’s House seat, a suburban Chicago district that went for Barack Obama, as he runs for the Senate in 2010. Either Quinn or Hynes would undoubtedly be favorites in the fall against a weak field of Republicans.

Chicago is already recognized as a world class city. From its sprawling skyline, terrific museums, miles of sparkling beaches, vast diversity in ethnicities, cultures, foods and languages, Chicago is not only a microcosm of the United States, but of the world. Just pay a visit to Chinatown, Boystown or La Villita. Holding the Olympics would only add to its reputation of greatness.

A tremendous amount of time, money and planning has been put into Chicago’s bid to hold the 2016 Olympic Games. Everyone from Mayor Daley to average citizens have played their part. Now is time for President Obama to make his voice heard. Not because the city requires his star power, but instead to make the case that the United States wants to once again be a leader in the world.

President Obama is a product of many cultures, races and nationalities. He was born in Hawaii, spent a few years in Indonesia and graduated from Harvard. It’s fitting that President Obama made Chicago his home during his adult life. He represents the city well and would do the same in Europe if he were to make the trip to Copenhagen. Given the support the voters of Illinois have shown for him, it’s really the least he can do.

I also visited the University of Chicago, a magnificent campus in the historic Hyde Park neighborhood. Below is video I took at the Oriental Institute Museum:

The Obama campaign has said all along that the first to know will be his supporters by text message and e-mail. If they were to announce Bayh either today (Thursday) or Friday then that would still give them time to hold a formal rally to celebrate the selection on Saturday. An event is also expected to take place in Springfield, Illinois on Saturday and the Obama campaign has sent e-mails to its supporters for them to RSVP tickets. The ride from Springfield to Indianapolis is a relatively short one – about four hours by car and 30 minutes by plane.