“With eyes firmly fixed on the future, in the spirit of unity, with the goal of victory, with faith in our party and our country, let’s declare together in one voice, right here, right now, that Barack Obama is our candidate and he will be our president,” Hillary Clinton said, setting off a loud celebration in Denver as Obama’s nomination became official.

Following up on his wife’s stellar performance last night, President Bill Clinton declared in his speech tonight that, “Barack Obama is ready to lead America and restore American leadership in the world.” President Clinton went on: “They actually want us to reward them for the last eight years by giving them four more. Let’s send them a message that will echo from the Rockies all across America: Thanks, but no thanks. In this case, the third time is not the charm. America can do better than that. And Barack Obama will do better than that.”

This party is united, it’s excited and it’s ready to put an end to the rule of George W. Bush!

That being said, everything Hillary stands for and everything her supporters believe in is at stake in this election. Hillary and Barack have virtually identical positions on the issues, whereas John McCain is the opposite on almost everything. Any SANE Hillary supporter, as much as they may be disappointed that she did not prevail, can not let a George Bush Republican win the White House again. It is against everything that Hillary has fought for her entire life! To vote for McCain would be to turn your back on Hillary.

Joe Biden is a Senator from Delaware and former presidential candidate. He also serves as chairman on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This is important because not only does Biden have foreign policy credentials, he has more experience in the Senate than John McCain does.

Evan Bayh is a Senator from Indiana, former two term Indiana governor and attorney general. He also has foreign policy experience as a member of the Senate Armed Services committee. He would complement Obama’s youth with his own at age 52, while being able to claim two decades of experience for his work as governor and in the Senate.

Tim Kaine is a Governor from Virginia. Like Obama, he is relatively young and new to the national scene. He was elected governor with support from Democrats, independents and Republicans. His cross-party appeal would be a strong selling point to a candidate that bills himself as being post-partisan. On the downside, Kaine is not well known outside of Virginia and his lack of experience could prove problematic.

Who do I think Obama will end up choosing? Senator Bayh is my bet. As a Hillary Clinton supporter in the primaries, Bayh would signal to Hillary supporters that the Obama campaign is not taking them for granted. With polls showing Obama ahead in Indiana without Bayh on the ticket, adding Bayh would further strengthen his chances of winning this ruby red state and turning it blue for the first time since 1964. The 11 electoral votes in Indiana, combined with Iowa’s 7 would be enough to make Obama the next president of the United States. Coincidentally, Obama will be making a campaign stop in Elkhart, Indiana on Wednesday, just 20 minutes east of South Bend. Will he use this venue to announce Bayh as his running mate? We’ll have to see in two short days.

The race for the Democratic nomination is coming to a close. As the likely nominee, Barack Obama leads in every possible metric: popular vote, delegate count, number of states won, number of primaries won, and number of caucuses won. World War I was dubbed “The War to End All Wars”. Indiana is shaping up to be the “Primary to End All Primaries”… at least for the 2008 election season.

The reason I say that is because without the states of Indiana and North Carolina, it is not possible for Hillary Clinton to catch up in either the delegate count (for which she trails him by roughly 150 elected delegates) or the popular vote (which he leads by 500,000). If the polls are any indication, Hillary is looking to lose North Carolina by upwards of 150,000, which will erase the gains she made from winning Pennsylvania.

As such, Indiana is seen as a “tie-breaker”. No matter the outcome of the Indiana primary, Obama will lead in the popular vote and delegate count. Indiana and North Carolina (the 15^th largest and 10^th largest states, respectively) are the last major states to vote. After these two primaries on May 6, there are only small states with comparatively low populations: Kentucky (26^th), Oregon (27^th), West Virginia (37^th), Montana (44^th) and South Dakota (46^th). Obama is favored in the second largest of these, Oregon, and the smallest two, Montana and South Dakota. Hillary will only gain a negligible amount of popular votes and delegates in these states.

Hillary’s last best hopes were in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Winning Indiana is not sufficient enough to do much, considering Obama’s win in North Carolina will come from a slightly larger state and with a much higher percentage of the vote. However, the polls in Indiana have Obama up anyway. Four recent polls had Obama up between 1 and 5 percent. He even was beating John McCain, according to an Indianapolis Star poll, in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1964!

There are several reasons why Obama should be favored to win Indiana. First, Obama has never lost a state that borders Illinois. He won Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri by varying amounts of 1% to 17%. The second advantage that he has in Indiana is the number of black voters and where they are concentrated. While the percentage is smaller than Ohio and Pennsylvania, they will remain a key component of any victory. The third Obama advantage comes from the most impressive part of his campaign: his ability to motivate young voters.

1. Chicago spill-over: The biggest advantage Obama has in Indiana is the spill-over affect of his homestate and border state, Illinois. Northwest Indiana is an extension of Chicago, included by the U.S. Census as part of the metropolitan area reaching from Wisconsin to Michigan City, Indiana in LaPorte County (three counties to the east of the Illinois border).

Obama should carry the three Chicago suburban counties of Lake (Gary, Hammond), Porter (Portage) and LaPorte (Michigan City, LaPorte) with heavy turnout from African Americans, young and liberal voters. The demographics in this part of the state favor him heavily, and should easily counter more rural (and less populated) areas that will favor Hillary. The Chicago media market has influence in this part of the state.

The fourth county that will undoubtedly be affected by Chicago influence is St. Joseph County. This includes South Bend, Mishawaka and Notre Dame. While St. Joseph County is not technically part of the Chicago metropolitan area (it is outside of it by about 30 miles), St. Joseph County is safely inside Chicago’s sphere of economic, media and political influence. Combined, these four “Chicago spill-over” counties of Indiana make up a full 1/6 of the state’s population at an approximately 1,006,000. St. Joseph County will also be included in two other Obama advantage regions detailed below.

2. The black vote: Since blacks are so heavily Democrat, they will make up a larger percent of the primary electorate than their overall percent of the state’s population. In other words, even though blacks make up roughly 12% of St. Joseph County, they will probably make up about 20% of the vote in the Democratic primary. Lake County, which includes Gary and Hammond, has a surprisingly low black population considering the stereotypes (although still significant). 25% of Lake County’s nearly 500,000 residents are African American. Marion County will be the single largest county where Obama will get his votes. 24% of its nearly 900,000 residents are African American.

3. College towns: Despite widespread belief that Indiana is a farm state, most of its 6.3 million residents live in cities and towns. It also has an above-average number of high school and college graduates in the United States. Many of these towns are lifted up by large numbers of college students from in and out of state, as well as international students. Again, this is an Obama advantage. Obama tends to do better in states where voters are more educated.

Obama will win the college towns of Bloomington (IU – 40,000 students), West Lafayette (Purdue – 40,000 students), Muncie (Ball State – 20,000 students), Indianapolis (Butler – 5,000 students; IUPUI – 30,000 students), and South Bend (Notre Dame – 12,000 students; IUSB – 7,500 students). Indiana also has an extensive community college system known as Ivy Tech which accounts for 110,000 students across 23 campuses.

If the media were ever in love with Barack Obama, they fell out of love with him awfully quickly. And like a person who abruptly leaves a relationship, they overcompensated for the stories of how fantastic a lover they were when they were together. He’s fat, he’s ugly, he’s lazy, he’s bald, he’s impotent.

In Obama’s case, he’s inexperienced (which is grossly exaggerated), he’s corrupt (Rezko), he’s racist (his pastor), he’s – oh my – a politician! All things that they knew about when they were “in bed” with him – and had ready access to long before he announced his bid for president – but are only being gossiped about heavily now that they have “broken up” with each other. You get the picture.

Let’s keep things in perspective. Barack Obama was elected to the United States Senate in 2004. By the time he becomes president, he will have served four years in the Senate. He was a state senator in Illinois for seven years. That’s eleven (11) years of public service. Prior to elected office he was a community organizer, Constitutional law professor (wouldn’t it be nice to have a president who understands the Constitution?), and a civil rights attorney.

George W. Bush was given a pass in 2000 for his inexperience. He was the governor of Texas for five (5) years. Barack Obama will have twice the experience of elected office when he becomes president when compared to that George W. Bush. If you don’t like George Bush as a comparison, how about the iconic Democratic president Franklin D. Roosevelt? President Roosevelt only served three (3) years as governor of New York before becoming president. He is widely regarded as one of the best.

The case that Hillary Clinton tries to make is that she is the experienced candidate and Barack Obama is not. The media plays into this theme constantly. She compares Barack Obama to George W. Bush in terms of experience. The truth is that it is Hillary Clinton who is more like George W. Bush when it comes to the issue of experience.

Hillary Clinton, if elected, will have served eight (8) years as a Senator from New York. What other elected office has she held? She hasn’t. She claims experience through osmosis. Her resume is Bill’s resume. She claims that being First Lady for eight years makes her fit for the job. She takes claim to programs such as S-CHIP, health insurance for kids approved in the 90s. Yet the lawmakers involved say she had nothing to do with its language or passage. She claims to be ready for a crisis at 3 a.m. when in fact she had no security clearance as First Lady and sat in on no meetings with regards to national security.

What she can claim experience to is a failed attempt to overhaul our healthcare system. She can also claim the experience of being on the corporate board of Wal-Mart and other corporate businesses. She has the experience of being the first Democrat to publicly denounce the likely nominee of the Democratic Party since Zell Miller blasted John Kerry in 2004 by saying, “no pair has been more wrong, more loudly, more often than the two Senators from Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.” By saying that she and John McCain are ready to be Commander-in-Chief, but Barack Obama is not, she undermines our party’s chances in the fall and only proves that she is as selfish and calculated as many people presumed before this process started.

This is not the way Democrats want our elections to be. You can not decry the tactics of Bush, Cheney and Rove, only to use the same tactics. The politics of fear, the politics of whatever-it-takes-to-win, the politics of deception and division… these are all things that voters are sick and tired of. They may work, but it is not the way that elections should be won.

Barack Obama started this campaign as an agent of change. He has run his campaign in a way that we have not seen in many, many years. He does not disparage his opponents or belittle his supporters as coming from too small, too black or too Republican of a state. He has raised tens of millions of dollars from small donors. He does not take money from lobbyists or PACs. He seeks to bring about a radical change in our politics, inspiring young, middle age and young at heart. If that is not a politician to fall in love with, I do not know what is.

The results were not clear the night of Super Tuesday as to what it all meant. Now that nearly all of the votes have been counted, the delegates have been allocated and the dust has settled, there is no doubt that Barack Obama had a big night last night. He won the most states, he won the most delegates and he has the most money. With California, New York, Arkansas and most of New England now behind us and Obama still ahead, the calendar now shifts to states that are favorable to him.

Let’s start with the big news of the day: the money crunch at Hillary Headquarters. Hillary confirmed today that she “loaned” her campaign $5 million dollars in January. So when we heard that Obama raised $32 million in January alone, versus $12 million for Hillary, almost half of that amount was her own money. Now we get word that Howard Wolfson and other campaign staff are going to go without pay. Sound familiar? The same thing happened to Rudy Giuliani’s campaign before it bombed a few weeks ago.

Now let’s turn to the Obama campaign. In the past 24 hours since Super Tuesday, Obama has raised more than $4 million online according to MSNBC. That’s $4,000,000 in one day. Momentum, anyone? Looks like Hillary’s going to have to write another check if she wants to keep pace. Oh wait, she wasn’t keeping pace in the first place!

Next up, the delegate count. Despite winning New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, Hillary did not win the most delegates last night. In fact, if you combine the number of delegates won out of Illinois and New York, the home states of the two candidates, Obama came out with more delegates than Hillary. The other 12 states that Obama won were more than enough to exceed the 7 other states that Hillary won.

Question: What state did Obama perform 7^th best in?

You probably would think Connecticut or Delaware, right? Wrong. Illinois. This just goes to show how strong support Obama has across the country when his home state is his 7^th strongest.

Idaho 17% 80%

Kansas 26% 74%

Alaska 25% 74%

Colorado 32% 67%

Minnesota 32% 67%

Georgia 31% 66%

Illinois 33% 64%

On the opposite side of things, Hillary’s top state was Arkansas (her other “home state”) and her 2^nd strongest is… New York. Not exactly a stellar national showing, eh? Compare that to Obama, who beat Hillary with 60% of the vote or more in 8 states (as many states as Hillary won outright), with Hillary only managing to beat Obama by that in 1 state. One. Even in New York she was held to under 60%. Hillary LOST, folks. She lost BIG.

Last thing I want to talk about is the contests coming up. Between now and March 4 there are 9 contests. He has an advantage in every one of these, and I’ll go state by state as to why:

In the next week alone there are 7 states (including D.C.) accounting for 465 delegates. These are:

Washington: Obama leads Hillary in the polls 53% to 40%

Louisiana: Large numbers of black voters. The “Deep South” states have all gone to Obama.

Nebraska: A caucus state, Obama has won every one of them, except for Nevada. He has won every Great Plains state so far as well.

Maine: Another caucus state. Momentum being on his side, this should be his, but could go either way.

Virginia: Obama has the support of the popular governor and the demographics seem to favor him (well educated whites and black voters).

Maryland: Another state with a large number of black voters (Baltimore).

Washington D.C.: Do I even need to point out why he’ll win here?

The majority of these will go to Obama. In fact, he should win five of the seven without a problem. Virginia and Maine I’m slightly less confident with. At worst, of the 465 delegates up for grabs between these states, Obama should get 250 of these. Remember, Democrats distribute delegates by the proportion of the vote. If you factor in Wisconsin and Hawaii on February 19, there will be 586 delegates for Obama to win in the month of February after Super Tuesday.

Obama lived in Hawaii and Wisconsin borders Illinois. Wisconsin also has large numbers of blacks in Milwaukee and college students in Madison. He should win them both. If he could manage to win 60% of these delegates, he would have 352 more delegates before “mini-Super Tuesday” on March 4. Doing that would put him within roughly 700-800 delegates of the nomination (and over a hundred delegates ahead of Hillary), without even including Super Delegates, before March 4.

If the Clintons cede every state between now and March 4, they cannot win. 28 states have already voted. There are 22 states left. For them to not compete in 9 of those states voting in the next month would be to concede nearly half of the states left to vote. True, Ohio and Texas are massive states, but just as her Super Tuesday strategy failed to deliver her the most delegates with the likes of New York, California and New Jersey, smaller states like Ohio and Texas will not be able to do the job, either.

That said, looking beyond “mini-Super Tuesday” on March 4, the biggest single day for delegates will be May 6 with Indiana and North Carolina. Looking at the returns from Illinois and South Carolina, both states should be big wins for Obama. Obama didn’t only do well in Chicago, where he had nearly 70% support in Cook County (America’s second biggest county), he also beat Hillary in the rural regions of the state along the Indiana border. This should bode well for him on May 6.

I don’t know much about North Carolina, but polls already had him up in that state before Super Tuesday. He should win it. Being from Indiana, I can say that the large black populations in South Bend, Indianapolis, Fort Wayne and Northwest Indiana (Hammond, Gary, East Chicago, Michigan City) will all give him a huge surplus of votes. Add to that the cities with high concentrations of college students: Bloomington (IU), Muncie (Ball State), South Bend (Notre Dame/St. Mary’s), Lafayette (Purdue) and Indianapolis (IUPUI, Butler). And of course being a border state to Illinois, Indiana should go Obama’s way. With it (and North Carolina), Obama will win a majority of the 218 delegates.

Alabama:

Obama – 56%
Hillary – 42%

Alaska:

Obama – 75%
Hillary – 25%

Colorado:

Obama – 67%
Hillary – 32%

Connecticut:

Obama – 51%
Hillary – 47%

Delaware:

Obama – 53%
Hillary – 43%

Georgia:

Obama – 67%
Hillary – 31%

Idaho:

Obama – 79%
Hillary – 17%

Illinois:

Obama – 65%
Hillary – 33%

Kansas:

Obama – 74%
Hillary – 26%

Minnesota:

Obama – 67%
Hillary – 32%

Missouri:

Obama – 49%
Hillary – 48%

New Mexico:

Obama – 49%
Hillary – 48%

North Dakota:

Obama – 61%
Hillary – 37%

Utah:

Obama – 57%
Hillary – 39%

Even though Hillary won California and New York, her percentages in New England were surprisingly small. Her lead in the polls were at 20%+ in most of these states for the entire election, some had her at over 30%. Yet, in states like New Jersey she won with only 10%. New York, her home state, she had only 17%. Obama won his home state, Illinois, with nearly twice her support. In fact, Obama had 1.2 million votes in Illinois, compared to Hillary’s 1 million votes on New York. She essentially was isolated to California/Arizona, New England and Arkansas/Tennessee/Oklahoma. Here are the states where Hillary won, but Obama did surprisingly well:

Arizona:

Obama – 42%
Hillary – 51%

Massachusetts:

Obama – 41%
Hillary – 56%

New Jersey:

Obama – 44%
Hillary – 54%

New York:

Obama – 40%
Hillary – 57%

Tennessee:

Obama – 41%
Hillary – 54%

Obama played on Hillary’s home turf and gave her a run for her money: the “Tri-state” area in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Obama won Connecticut, he came within 10% in New Jersey and kept her within 20% in New York. Obama, meanwhile, won the Deep South and other traditionally Republican states in the Rocky Mountains overwhelmingly, proving he is far more electable in November than she is. He carried his home state of Illinois, winning Cook County, America’s second largest county, with nearly 70% support. He won the bell weather state of Missouri, which has accurately predicted 25 of the last 26 presidents, with 49% of the vote to Hillary’s 48%. He won Minnesota with 67%, sweeping the Midwest. Coming up is February 9 when Louisiana, Washington state and Nebraska vote. Get out and support Obama!