Walker has refused to negotiate or form a compromise position, even after the unions said that they would offer concessions. Part of collective bargaining is that both sides given and take. Walker is coming from the position that he will get everything that he wants or else people will start to lose their jobs. The most amazing thing about this is that his plan was never discussed during last fall’s election, even though he has repeatedly lied in interviews saying that it was. As the non-partisan PolitiFact rates his claim of having campaigned on the issue as purely “false”.

Not only did he not campaign on the issue, but Walker’s position is extremely unpopular with the public at large. Poll after poll has shown that voters support the unions over the governor. An NBC News poll asked the question: “Do you think public employees who belong to a union and work for state government, city government, or a school district should have the same right to bargain when it comes to their health care, pension and other benefits as employees who belong to a union and work for private companies?” The results are unbelievable:

Yes – 77%
No – 19%
Not sure – 4%

Granted, the poll was taken from a nationwide sample. It is safe to assume that Wisconsin, as one of the more union-friendly states, probably has even higher levels of support for the unions than the nation at large. The support for the unions in this issue breaks party lines. Democrats and independents overwhelmingly back the right to collectively bargain. Even some Republicans have to support it, since their share of the electorate is greater than the 19% that oppose collective bargaining rights. The opinion of the public is unambiguous: they do not want union-busting to take place. Governor Walker has over-stepped his bounds by trying to destroy a political foe of his in the name of deficit reduction. The American people do not want any part of it.

California

Meg Whitman dumped over $150 million into the governor’s race this year, yet she trails Democrat and former governor Jerry Brown by double digits. She came out against employers that hired undocumented workers, but had a maid for ten years that was in the country illegally. This basically killed any chance she had of becoming governor.

In the Senate race, Democrat Barbara Boxer has consistently held a narrow lead over conservative Republican Carly Fiorina. A Republican has not won a Senate race in California since Pete Wilson in 1984. With polls moving towards Boxer in the final days, it is hard to see this 26 year old streak ending in 2010. As a result, Democratic House candidates can expect a bump from a strong top of the ballot.

This could help with races in California 11 and California 20 where polls show tight races for Representatives McNerney and Costa. Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, who finds herself in a tough fight in traditionally Republican Orange County, may also benefit. The only Republican that looks vulnerable is Dan Lungren of California 3 near Sacramento.

Connecticut

As I posted yesterday, Connecticut’s Senate seat currently held by retiring Democrat Chris Dodd is now strongly favored to remain in Democratic hands. The race has moved into a double-digit advantage for state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon. Democrats are also favored to win the governor’s mansion, which is currently held by a Republican. Winning both of these races should boost Democratic Representatives Murphy and Himes.

New York

Andrew Cuomo is the overwhelming favorite to win Tuesday’s gubernatorial race against Tea Party candidate Carl Paladino, who suggested that he would “take out” a reporter on tape. His over-the-top style is likely to hurt Republicans down the ballot and possibly cost Republicans a pick-up of 2 or 3 House seats in the state. The two Senate races (one of them a special election for the seat formerly held by Hillary Clinton) are blowout races as well.

Republicans are certain to pick-up the seat of former Congressman Eric Massa, who resigned in disgrace last December. Democrat Scott Murphy of New York 20, John Hall of New York 19, Bill Owens of New York 23, and Michael Arcuri of New York 24 all find themselves in close races. They could benefit from strong top-of-the-ballot performance on the Democratic side.

Pennsylvania

Polls had Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey up by double-digits not more than a couple weeks ago. Today, the two are virtually tied. While Toomey may yet win this statewide race, he will likely benefit most from a Republican surge in districts where the party is already the strongest. The fact that Democrat Joe Sestak has managed to close the gap means that Democrats in marginal districts around the Philly suburbs could see a boost as well.
Democrats are currently likely to lose at least two seats in Pennsylvania, districts 3 and 11, where incumbents trail by double digits. The Democrats most likely to benefit are ones in close races: Chris Carney of Pennsylvania 10, Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania 8, Mark Critz of Pennsylvania 12.

This is not to suggest that the top of the ballot will save all of these candidates or even benefit the Democratic Party universally across the country. There are some states where gubernatorial races may hurt Democrats (Arizona for instance) and the same for Senate races (Republican’s expected win will drag down House Democratic candidates in Indiana). It may, however, make the difference in close races where more high profile races for statewide office help House incumbents.

On the Republican side, Tea Party favorite Ken Buck is leading Washington favorite Jane Norton, a former Lt. Governor. Buck possibly hurt his chances with his Tea Party base when he called them “dumbasses” for making Obama’s birth certificate an issue in the campaign. Not exactly the way to close a campaign. At either rate, Norton was the favorite and she now trails. Finally, Republican Dan Maes leads Scott McInnis in the GOP’s primary for governor. McInnis was recently caught plagiarizing work that he was paid $300,000 for.

Colorado Senate Primary

Michael Bennet (D) – 54.3%
Andrew Romanoff (D) – 45.6%

Ken Buck (R) – 51.6%
Jane Norton (R) – 48.3%

Colorado Gubernatorial Primary

Dan Maes (R) – 50.1%
Scott McInnis (R) – 49.8%

Ned Lamont, a liberal favorite and victor over Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary for Senate, lost his bid for governor to Democrat Dan Malloy 58-42. Republicans nominated Tom Foley with 42 percent of the vote. Democrats see Connecticut as a key pick-up opportunity. On the Senate side, Republicans nominated WWE Linda McMahon beat former Congressman Rob Simmons 49-28. Democrats nominated Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for the seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd.

Connecticut Gubernatorial Primary

Tom Foley (R) – 42%
Michael Fedele (R) – 39%
Oz Griebel (R) – 19%

Dan Malloy (D) – 58%
Ned Lamont (D) – 42%

Connecticut Senate Primary

Linda McMahon (R) – 49%
Rob Simmons (R) – 28%
Peter Schiff (R) – 23%

To establish an uniform rule of naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies, throughout the United States

Anyone familiar with the Constitution would know this and undoubtedly the politicians in Arizona knew it, but passed the bill anyway. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer was behind her expected Democratic challenger by 7-10 points in September of 2009. Today, she leads Attorney General Terry Goddard by double digits. The decision was a political one that is going to end up costing the citizens of Arizona millions of dollars (possibly much more) in attorney fees. It will also certainly mean the state will lose population and with it businesses/investment.

While the bill was not completely struck down, Judge Bolton issued a stay on provisions requiring immigrants to carry papers at all times and blocked a provision that would allow police officers to arrest immigrants that they “suspected” of being undocumented without a warrant. “Requiring Arizona law enforcement officials and agencies to determine the immigration status of every person who is arrested burdens lawfully present aliens because their liberty will be restricted while their status is checked,” Bolton wrote.

However, pro-immigrant groups did lose one key point. Judge Bolton preserved the ban on so-called “sanctuary cities”. These “sanctuary cities” (which I’m working on for a research project on immigration) are known for refusing to enforce federal immigration policy. They restrict their city employees, police officers, etc. from asking the immigration status of people that they come into contact with. That will no longer be the case, in Arizona at least. The next step will be the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals before a likely Supreme Court case.

Nevada GOP Senate Primary

Sharron Angle – 38.6%
Sue Lowden – 27.9%
Danny Tarkanian – 22.7%

65.5% precincts reporting

Across the border in California, more moderate candidates succeeded in fending off Tea Party insurgents in both the Senate and Governor primary races. Carly Fiorina is the former CEO of HP, having been fired from that job due to poor performance. When she became CEO of the company in 1999, HP’s stock price was at $52 per share. When she left in 2005, the stock had fallen over 60% to just $21 per share. Fiorina will have an uphill battle against incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer in this reliably Democratic state. Her competence will be a big part of the Boxer strategy. Still, she managed to easily knock off Tea Party favorite Chuck DeVore, who received fewer than 1 in 5 votes.

California GOP Senate Primary

Carly Fiorina – 54.4%
Tom Campbell – 25.2%
Chuck DeVore – 17.6%

19% precincts reporting

The California governor’s race is another hot ticket item. Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, easily defeated the more conservative Steve Poizner. She will get the rights to take on former governor Jerry Brown, the Democrat in the race. Whitman’s win was not without effort. She spent over $50 million of her personal wealth just to win the Republican nomination. It will likely take another $50 million to win a general election. Polls show her trailing Brown by single digits.

California GOP Governor Primary

Meg Whitman – 63.3%
Steve Poizner – 26.6%

19.4% precincts reporting

The final major race of the night was in the state of Arkansas, where two Democrats battled it out in a runoff after both candidates failed to reach 50% in May’s primary. Conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln survived a close fight from the more liberal Bill Halter, who enjoyed support from organized labor and left wing blogs. Arkansas is one of the most conservative states in the country and it is also a right-to-work state, so there are few labor unions. Both factors made it difficult for Halter to overcome, despite Lincoln’s unpopularity. This seat was likely going to the Republicans come fall no matter who the candidate was anyway. It is also another race where a female won, which is quite the theme tonight.

Arkansas Democratic Senate Runoff

Blanche Lincoln – 52%
Bill Halter – 48%

99.8% precincts reporting

We’ll have updated midterm election projections soon! Stay tuned!

You may recall Rick Perry as the guy that mentioned secession as a possibility for Texas because of the policies of Barack Obama. “We’ve got a great union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we’re a pretty independent lot to boot,” he said in 2009.

Ultimately, the conservative voters of Texas won out. Perry garnered 51 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for Hutchison. A third Republican candidate, Debra Medina, has 18 percent of the vote. Medina raised the possibility that 9/11 was an inside job during an interview with Glenn Beck. Clearly it didn’t hurt her too much in the Republican Party as she was a no-name candidate, yet managed to register in double digits.

“I don’t have all of the evidence there, Glenn, so I don’t, I’m not in a place, I have not been out publicly questioning that. I think some very good questions have been raised in that regard. There are some very good arguments, and I think the American people have not seen all of the evidence there so I have not taken a position on that,” Medina said.

Democrats see this as their best opportunity to win the Texas governorship in over a decade. The popular Houston Mayor Bill White will be the Democratic Party’s nominee. Having won 76 percent of the vote, the Democrats are clearly united behind their candidate. It will take some repairing for Perry to win over Hutchison voters, particularly given the nastiness of the campaign. We’ll see in November.

Carpetbaggers have won in states like New York, where Hillary Clinton succeeded in 2000, but have also failed in states like Illinois where Alan Keyes was handily defeated by Barack Obama in 2004. Coats brings experience winning statewide office to the table, something his opponents for the Republican nomination don’t have. However, the last time he won an election was in 1992. In politics, that might as well be a century ago.

The other major races were for governor where incumbent Pat Quinn is fighting for his political survival. Current results have it too close to call. With 96% of precincts reporting, Quinn stood at 50.3% of the vote, with challenger Dan Hynes at 49.7%. Only 5,000 votes separate them. It is possible that we might not have a result until the morning – or perhaps longer if the race continues to tighten. If Quinn loses, it will be in large part due to the fact that he a.) replaced Rod Blagojevich after his indictment and impeachment b.) presides over a budget deficit of $8.95 billion that is largely outside of his control.

On the Republican side there is a similar story. Bill Brady has a tentative lead of 20.6% with Kirk Dillard behind by only 2,000 votes at 20.3%. If Brady ends up winning, it will be a huge upset as a Chicago Tribune poll taken just a couple weeks ago had him at only 9% in fourth place. The leader in that poll, party chairman Mark McKenna, is currently in third place with 19% of the vote. This just goes to show that low turnout primaries can swing in crazy directions. It’s all about motivating your supporters to go out and vote.

Finally, in the race to replace Mark Kirk in Illinois’s 10th Congressional District, 38 year old Dan Seals, an University of Chicago MBA grad, will win the Democratic nomination for a third straight time. Seals lost to Kirk in 2006 by 6 points, 53% to 47%. Their rematch in 2008 was also 53% to 47%. This is a district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and should be a good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

*Edit*

It looks like Pat Quinn will probably squeak by with a win. His lead has increased to approximately 7,000 votes with 98% of precincts reporting. He’s already declared victory, yet Hynes promises to fight on. Definitely may have a recount here. On the Republican side, only 500 votes separate Brady and Dillard. This could certainly see a recount as well.

Also worth noting are the numbers of votes for the two parties. 892,000 voters in Illinois cast a ballot for one of the two Democrats for governor. 757,000 cast ballots for Republican candidates for governor. In the Senate race today 880,000 voted for Democratic candidates, while 732,000 voted for Republican candidates. That’s a 150,000 advantage for Democrats.

Partisans tend to be the ones to vote in primaries (and for that matter, midterm elections). That said, whoever manages to win a bulk of independents will probably win the general election. Mark Kirk certainly has the chance to appeal to independent voters if his Republican base doesn’t force him to move to the right. Conservative Republicans simply can’t win elections in Illinois.

In the race to challenge incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, Republicans have three candidates to choose from. Among them are Campbell, who switched from the governor’s race to the Senate race. It appears that was a good move as he currently leads his two rivals, former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Teabag candidate Chuck DeVore. PPIC finds that Campbell has 27%, 16% for Fiorina, and a distant third for DeVore at 8%. Fiorina has positioned herself as a moderate alternative to the ultra-conservative DeVore, but has not gained much traction. While Fiorina was the early favorite, particularly of the establishment, that is clearly no longer the case.

The general election is shaping up to be a Democratic win, though, as President Obama enjoys a 61% approval rating in the state (34% disapproval). That’s considerably higher than much of the rest of the country and indicates that the party’s coalition is holding up – at least in the Golden State. Compare that to Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger whose approval rating is in George W. Bush territory – only 30% approve and 60% disapprove. Barbara Boxer has an approval rating just below 50% at 49% with 44% saying that they disapprove.

The other major poll out is of the Illinois primary for Senate, which will be held tomorrow. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, the State Treasurer, leads the pack with 31% support, compared to 23% for Hoffman, and 23% for Jackson. The Republican Party is set to nominate the moderate Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, a Chicago suburbanite that voted for President Obama’s cap-and-trade bill but now says that he opposes it. While his support for those policies helped him in his Democratic-leaning Chicago suburb district, it is not popular at all with Republicans. That said, Kirk manages to poll better than both Hoffman and Jackson in this heavily Democratic state. Either of them winning the primary puts this seat once held by President Obama in serious jeopardy. The general election polls are below:

42% Giannoulias, 34% Kirk
37% Kirk, 36% Hoffman
38% Kirk, 36% Jackson

While Giannoulias leads Kirk by a healthy 8%, his two competitors are in extremely tight races with Kirk. Also decided on Tuesday will be the candidates to replace Mark Kirk in his suburban Chicago district, as well as competitive primaries for governor in both parties.

The Chicago Tribune polled the race, which is set for February 2, 2010. Governor Quinn leads with 44% support, while Dan Hynes trails by only 4 points at 40% support. There are a large number of voters that are still undecided, leaving the race wide open. If Dan Hynes sounds like a familiar name, it is because he ran against Barack Obama in the Democratic Senate primary in 2004.

The Republicans are also going to the polls on February 2 to determine their candidate for governor. Andy McKenna, the former Republican Party Chairman in Illinois, has a tentative lead of 19% over Jim Ryan, who is staking 18% of the vote. Kirk Dillard, a former judge and current member of the Illinois State Senate, trails with 14% of the vote. Dillard is notable for having supported President Obama during the 2008 presidential campaign, being featured in an ad in Iowa.

With the Blagojevich scandal and budget cuts, one would think that the Republicans would have a decent shot at winning the Governor’s Mansion in Illinois. However, the GOP has an extremely weak bench in the state with zero statewide elected officials and dwindling members in the House. Democrats are looking to pick up Republican Mark Kirk’s House seat, a suburban Chicago district that went for Barack Obama, as he runs for the Senate in 2010. Either Quinn or Hynes would undoubtedly be favorites in the fall against a weak field of Republicans.