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Posts Tagged ‘democrat’

The Truth Behind Nancy Pelosi’s House Record

Posted on: January 14th, 2011 by Kyle. | No Comments

Last week Republicans took control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2006. The reasons are more complicated than some would lead you to believe, but put simply, it was a mix of high unemployment, a huge money advantage for Republicans by corporate benefactors, dissatisfaction with Washington gridlock, and demographics in midterms that favor Republicans over Democrats. Older people tend to vote in all elections, while younger voters only tend to vote in presidential years. In fact, only about a quarter of young voters participated in the 2010 election vs. half of them during 2008. That’s a steep drop-off and largely benefited the Republicans.

No matter the outcome of the midterm election, it is indisputable that the last Congress was one of the most productive ever. For all of the Pelosi haters out there, Speaker Pelosi accomplished a great deal in the past four years, including many things that Republicans would have supported in the past (such as tax cuts). Her image as a “San Francisco liberal” did not make her many friends in the nation’s mid-section and President Obama rarely defended her, despite the fact that she was carrying his bucket in the House. Here are just a few of the many accomplishments that Pelosi managed when she was House Speaker:

*Extending unemployment benefits. The roughly 10-15% of people unemployed in this area (depending on which county you live in) would not have unemployment benefits if the GOP had their way.
*Expanding health care coverage to all Americans by 2014 (unless Republicans de-fund it, which is quite possible)
*Regulating the banks to make sure that future bailouts do not happen.
*Ending the bank bailouts from the Bush years.
*Increasing funding for financial aid to college, including Pell Grants and reducing the cost of student loans.
*Creating an estimated 3.7 million jobs with the Recovery Act

I would stand by that record any day of the week. The Republicans got us into the ditch and the Democrats got us out. It wasn’t easy and times are still tough, but we are on the path to recovery. Going down the Republican path of de-regulation and tax cuts for the rich will only ensure a future economic collapse.

How did our projections hold up?

Posted on: November 3rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Looking back at last night’s election results and comparing them to the projections that were made on this site, we had a perfect score. The races that we had rated as “Toss-ups” split 4-2 for the Republicans, but all of the “Leans Democrat” seats stayed in Democratic hands (the only caveat is that Washington state still has votes yet to be counted). Let’s take a look at the projections from October 27:

The “Toss-up” states that I had listed were Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. States that “Lean Democrat” included California, Washington and West Virginia. Now let’s look at the actual results on Election Day:

The individual results for the “Toss-up” states looked like this, organized by how close the final result was:

Colorado

Michael Bennet (D) – 47.7%
Ken Buck (R) – 46.8%

Pennsylvania

Pat Toomey (R) – 51%
Joe Sestak (D) – 49%

Illinois

Mark Kirk (R) – 48.3%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) – 46.2%

Wisconsin

Ron Johnson (R) – 51.9%
Russ Feingold (D) – 47.1%

Nevada

Harry Reid (D) – 50.2%
Sharron Angle (R) – 44.6%

Alaska

Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) – 41%
Joe Miller (R) – 34.2%

Analysis:

We can look at these results and conclude a few things. First, the conventional wisdom that Harry Reid was dead in Nevada was wrong. Not only did he win, he got over 50 percent of the vote. In Pennsylvania, many pundits had assumed that Pat Toomey was well ahead of Joe Sestak. The final results showed a tight 2 point race. Wisconsin, which some people criticized me for listing as a “Toss-up”, turned out to be closer than both Nevada and West Virginia. Lastly, incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski went against the odds to win a write-in vote over the Republican nominee, Joe Miller, who defeated her in the primary just a couple months ago. In each of the “Toss-up” calls that were made, the final results were anywhere between 0.9 – 6.8%. None of the races that were listed as either “Leans Democrat” or “Leans Republican” switched parties.

Election Night Live Blogging

Posted on: November 2nd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

4:42 p.m. (11/3): Well, it’s the day after the election. The GOP had a huge surge in the House, but the Senate was more or less a wash for them. While they picked up 6 seats, it was far less than the 10 that they needed to win to take control. Great news out of Colorado for Democrats: Michael Bennet is projected to win the Senate seat over Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. That puts Democrats at a 53-47 majority, assuming Patty Murray wins in Washington state (which she currently leads in).

2:17 a.m.: “California is always a little different.” -Carly Fiorina …. Way to bash your state in defeat, Carly.

2:04 a.m.: Going to bed on this note – the Tea Party has likely cost the Republicans the Senate. Harry Reid beating Sharron Angle and Chris Coons beating Christine O’Donnell are two seats that would have gone to the GOP if they had nominated the candidates that the NRSC had backed. Thank you Sarah Palin for helping make sure the Senate stays in Democratic hands!

1:50 a.m.: Now that I’ve had more time, I have looked at where the biggest Republican gains took place. The Midwest and South were the biggest losses. New York state and Ohio were the biggest overall shifts with 5 seats, followed by 4 in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Virginia; 2 in Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin, and Indiana. That’s a net loss of 19 seats in Midwestern states – half of what Republicans needed to win the House. Throw in Ike Skelton’s loss in Missouri and the losses of the at-large seats in North and South Dakota and the Democrats lost 22 seats in the greater Midwest (I included Pennsylvania since culturally they are pretty similar).

1:30 a.m.: AP is saying that they accidentally put 30,000 votes into the Ken Buck column in Colorado that should have gone to Michael Bennet. If that is the case, the Democrat would have a 20,000 vote lead. Pretty big screw up there!

1:10 a.m.: Despite losing the governorship and two Senate races overwhelmingly, Republicans picked up five seats in New York: 13, 19, 20, 24, 29. I guess I was wrong in thinking the top of the ballot would help these vulnerable Democrats. As I mentioned with Illinois, these are low hanging fruit for 2012.

1:03 a.m.: I beg Sarah Palin to run for president in 2012. We’ll see a 60 seat shift back towards the Democrats if she does.

12:50 a.m.: 58% of Californians voted AGAINST Proposition 23 that would have removed the carbon restrictions in the state.

12:35 a.m.: Quick House update – Democrats will probably lose anywhere from 55-60 seats when all is said and done. Currently, it stands at 52 seats, which is where things were in 1994. That puts 2010 in the history books as one of the larger wave elections.

12:30 a.m.: Chuck Todd believes that Michael Bennet will benefit from Denver suburban votes that have not yet come in. He currently leads by about 10,000 votes. In Florida, Alex Sink trails by 2 points against Republican Rick Scott. Only half of the vote has been counted out of Miami-Dade County and about a third left in Palm Beach County. Both are heavily Democratic counties with large populations. Sink could still give Democrats a pick-up in a very large state.

12:25 a.m.: Love this site – http://whatthefuckhasobamadonesofar.com/.

12:23 p.m.: Joe Sestak is conceding the Pennsylvania Senate race. He lost be a razor thin 51-49 margin. I have a feeling that this guy will be back. Incredible candidate and a good man.

12:06 p.m.: Carl Paladino has literally threatened to beat New York’s next governor over the head with a baseball bat if he doesn’t do what he wants him to, even though he only got 35% of the vote. Can you get more crazy?

12:00 p.m.: If the current numbers hold up, Republicans will control 11 of Illinois’ 19 House seats. That’s a pick-up of 4 seats in Obama’s backyard. The good news for Democrats is that they will be low-hanging fruit in 2012.

11:37 p.m.: More disappointing news out of Indiana – Democrats have lost control of the House. Republicans now control the Indiana House, Senate and Governor’s Mansion. This means that they can push through any bills that they want without opposition. It also means that they will control the redistricting process. In all likelihood it means that they will try to squeeze Joe Donnelly out of his seat by excluding a city like Kokomo or perhaps some of LaPorte County out of Indiana 2. They already won Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth’s seat in Southern Indiana, but may try to shore up those districts with more Republican voters as well.

11:21 p.m.: Shifting gears to the gubernatorial races across the country, independents are faring quite well. Rhode Island’s next governor will be Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican Senator that lost his race in 2006. He endorsed Barack Obama for president in 2008 and had the favor returned when President Obama refused to endorse the Democratic candidate in this year’s race. Independent Eliot Cutler won by 5 points in Maine. Independents also waged serious campaigns in Colorado and Minnesota, winning over 10 percent of the vote. Independents are no longer just spoilers, they are serious contenders in races where the two major party candidates are unpopular.

11:15 p.m.: Carl Paladino, the Tea Party psychopath that threatened to “take out” a reporter, has lost the New York governor’s race by 25 points to Democrat Andrew Cuomo. He will probably cost the Republicans a few House seats in the state. Tea Party candidates definitely do not hold sway in Democratic states.

10:59 p.m.: Not looking good for Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois. Almost all of the vote is in from Chicago (Cook County) and he is trailing by about 13,000 votes. Also not good news: he lost the Chicago suburbs by a wide margin. Mark Kirk won Lake County 57-39, McHenry County 59-34, Kane County 56-37, Dupage County 59-36, and Will County 52-41. Why does this matter? Anyone that knows Chicago knows that the suburbs have overtaken the central city in political importance. They have a 2-to-1 population advantage, making up a majority of the Chicago metro’s over 9 million citizens. Kirk is raking in the votes in this all-important part of the region.

10:40 p.m.: Senator Russ Feingold, a quirky liberal that voted against the Wall Street bailout, has lost his race to Republican businessman Ron Johnson. This just goes to show that voters sometimes don’t care about specific votes in Congress. This appears to be a vote against the Democratic Party in Wisconsin, not against Russ Feingold. On the downside, Ron Johnson is a Tea Partier that has said he would support drilling for oil in Lake Michigan. Not the type of Senator any Democrat would want to see take office in a state that voted nearly 60% for Barack Obama.

10:35 p.m.: Democrats were worried that they might lose at least one of their two members of Congress in Maine. Polling seemed to confirm that they were in trouble. It didn’t happen. So far the Democrats in those races have double-digit leads. The only Democrat to lose in New England was Carol-Shea Porter in New Hampshire. The other New Hampshire seat, left open by Paul Hodes who was running for the Senate (and lost), has switched parties as well. New England remains solidly Democratic.

10:30 p.m.: Ben Chandler is winning Kentucky 6, which includes the city of Lexington, by only 600 votes. Expect a recount here.

10:14 p.m.: Brad Ellsworth lost his home county, where Evansville is located, to Dan Coats by an amazing 8 points. Very poor campaign run by the Democrats in Indiana.

9:57 p.m.: Illinois Senate race is looking good for Democrats. Alexi Giannoulias was polling in the low 40s, but currently holds 50.5% of the vote to Republican Mark Kirk’s 44.3%. Interestingly, most polls had Kirk about where he is right now. If these numbers hold up, it will show that the undecided voters broke for the Democrats.

9:42 p.m.: Big news for Democrats in Pennsylvania. A state that looked pretty good for Republicans currently has Democrat Joe Sestak up 54.3% to 45.7%. Sestak is holding strong in the Philadelphia suburbs, winning Philly by 150,000 votes, and Pittsburgh by 45,000 votes. The race will tighten up, but right now, it is looking like Sestak upsets Toomey in a state the Republicans had counted on winning. Only a few weeks ago Toomey was leading by double digits in the polls.

9:37 p.m.: Christine O’Donnell, the Tea Party candidate that cost the Republicans a Senate seat in Delaware has declared that she “won”. “We have won. We were victorious because the Delaware political system will never be the same,” O’Donnell said in her concession speech. She lost 57-40% to Democrat Chris Coons.

9:24 p.m.: “You lie!” Republican Representative Joe Wilson is losing his seat in South Carolina. Hopefully these numbers hold up.

9:21 p.m.: NBC is projecting that the Democrats have lost the House of Representatives. So far Republicans have only officially picked up 8 seats out of the 39 that they need. Depending on how the West Coast comes in, it will either be a bloodbath or a fairly close divide in the House. If you haven’t voted yet and live out in California or other West Coast states, go vote.

8:58 p.m.: Republicans are coming on strong in Indiana. After winning the Senate race early on, two Southern Indiana districts – 8 and 9 – have been called for Republicans. One of them was held by incumbent Baron Hill. As I posted in the election guide, Democrats needed to win this district if they were going to hold onto the House. They are losing it badly – by 15 points. Democrat Joe Donnelly is winning by a slim two thousand vote lead.

8:51 p.m.: Alan Grayson has lost his Orlando-area district. Right now it’s about a 25 point wipe-out.

8:34 p.m.: NBC News is calling the West Virginia Senate race for Democrat Joe Manchin. Out the window goes Republican hopes of winning the Senate.

8:30 p.m.: Republicans picked up their second Senate seat. Democrat Blanche Lincoln loses her seat after badly trailing throughout the campaign. No surprise here. Democrats have won Connecticut’s Senate race. Richard Blumenthal will defeat Linda McMahon, the former WWE CEO.

8:23 p.m.: Democrat John Yarmuth has held on to his seat in Kentucky 3.

8:10 p.m.: John Carney won Delaware’s open seat, giving the Democrats a pick-up, the first pick-up of the night for either party. Republicans now need to win 40 seats from Democrats in order to gain the majority.

8:07 p.m.: MSNBC keeps bringing up Evan Bayh retiring from the Senate and taking a $10 million war chest with him. There’s no doubt that Bayh would have won and kept the state in the Democratic column. My guess: Bayh is running for governor again in 2012. Mitch Daniels will leave office term-limited and leaves an opening for Democrats.

8:02 p.m.: Some good news for Democrats: Ted Strickland is leading in Ohio’s governor race. Too close to call in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, which Republicans were slightly favored to win. They still might, but it should be close. We had it rated as a Toss-Up. West Virginia is looking good for the Dems as well.

7:35 p.m.: Ohio has been called, as expected, for Rob Portman. The Republicans hold onto the seat of retiring Senator George Voinovich.

7:06 p.m.: We are just getting started with poll closings tonight. No surprises here. Indiana is projected to be the Republican’s first pick-up of the night. Kentucky has also been called for Rand Paul. In good news for Democrats, Joe Donnelly leads in St. Joseph County with 63% to Jackie Walorski’s 33%. If that number holds up, it will be a blow-out in Indiana 2.

Races to Watch on Election Night

Posted on: October 31st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Election Night is drawing nearer, so I thought that a list of races to watch would be beneficial to those not terribly familiar with individual races and national dynamics. Instead of relying on what CNN or MSNBC tell you on Election Night, take control by tracking a few key races that could determine which party controls the next Congress. We’ve made it easy by focusing in on five House and Senate races from across the country.

House Races

Out of all the states where Republicans are looking to capture House seats, perhaps Indiana is the best indicator of whether Republicans will win the House and by what margin. For starters, it will be the first state to report its vote totals. Polls close at 6 Eastern, although part of the state is on Central, so the results won’t begin coming until 7 p.m.

Indiana 9 is a district in Southern Indiana that straddles the Kentucky border along the Ohio River and includes college towns like Bloomington, home of Indiana University. Democrat Baron Hill is the incumbent here. He voted for the stimulus package and health care bill, but against the Wall Street bailout and cap-and-trade.

The district has swapped between parties a number of times this decade. Hill was elected in 1998 51% to 48%, re-elected in 2000 and managed to survive in 2002, a rough year for Democrats when they lost seats to the president’s party (this rarely happens, even though both 1998 and 2002 were exceptions). Hill lost in 2004 by 2,000 votes to Mike Sodrel, his opponent from 2002. Two years later, in 2006, Hill ran again and won against Sodrel as Democrats captured the House. Not satisfied with defeat, Sodrel ran a fourth time in 2008, losing to Hill by 20 points.

It is expected that this will be a tight race. Polls show that Hill is essentially tied with his opponent at 45 percent. While that is not where an incumbent wants to be in a year like 2010, it isn’t an insurmountable challenge, either. If Hill wins, the Democrats probably hold on to the House. If he loses, the Republicans will likely win the House; the only question is by what margin. That’s where the next district comes into play.

Indiana 2 is a Northern Indiana district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by 10 points after supporting Bush in 2004. This is a swing district at the presidential level, but favors Democrats at the Congressional level. Blue Dog Democrat Joe Donnelly has represented Indiana 2 since 2006. After losing in 2004 to Republican Chris Chocola, he succeeded by an impressive 8 point margin in 2006. In 2008, Donnelly won with 67 percent support as Obama carried Indiana for the first time since 1964. While Republicans do not need to win Indiana 2 to win the House, it would signify a sizable wave in the range of 55 to 60 seats.

The bottom line: It is hard to see how the Republicans can win the House if they cannot manage to win Indiana 9. While Obama improved his performance over John Kerry in every single county in Indiana, Southern Indiana was still McCain territory. These voters should be among the more skeptical of the current administration and more likely to vote Republican. Indiana 2 is anchored by St. Joseph County, which is strongly Democratic. If Republicans win this seat, it will be a barometer of how many seats their majority is, not whether they will win a majority.

Senate Races

The Senate will be a lot easier to monitor than the House whether it is about to switch party hands or not. For one reason, the House has 435 individual races, around 100 of which are truly competitive to any degree. The Senate has around a dozen truly competitive races, making it that much easier to track. The races that you will want to watch are the Toss-Ups. To make things easier to track, we are assuming Republican advantages in a number of states (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, etc.). The “Must Win” states are ones that Republicans must win in order to have a chance at a majority. Instead of listing each of them, we are going to focus on the two most crucial. The “2 out of 3″ states are named such because Republicans will need to win 2 out of 3 to gain a majority, assuming they win the “Must Win” states:

Must Win

Illinois is the best early indicator of whether Republicans have a chance of winning control of the Senate. Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are in a tight race for President Obama’s former Senate seat. The president was in Chicago on Saturday to rally the Democratic base near his home in Hyde Park at the University of Chicago. Losing this seat will mean that Republicans are having a good night. On the other hand, if Democrats manage to hold onto Illinois, it will shut the door on Republican chances at capturing the Senate.

Colorado is expected to be one of the closest of all the contests on Tuesday. Senator Michael Bennet was appointed by Governor Bill Ritter to fill the seat of Ken Salazar, whom President Obama tapped to be his Secretary of the Interior. Had Salazar been on the ballot, winning his seat in 2004 against the odds, he probably would have easily won re-election. Bennet has run a good campaign, though, and is facing a far-right candidate in Ken Buck. If Republicans win Colorado and Illinois, it means that they are well on their way to knocking off Harry Reid in nearby Nevada and could gain control of the Upper Chamber. If Democrats win Colorado, it once again shuts the door on that possibility.

2 out of 3

Washington could be the state that decides whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate. Democrats may lose Illinois, Colorado and a number of other states, but hold on to Washington. The reverse will not hold true, though. If Democrats hold on to Illinois, Colorado, West Virginia, etc., Republicans will not win in Washington state.

Even with a win in Washington, Republicans will need to sweep the board in every other Toss-Up state, and win in California or West Virginia. The math would look something like this: Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The bottom line: The Republicans essentially have to sweep everything in order to gain the majority: seats that Lean Republican, Toss-ups, and Lean Democrat. They need a net pick-up of 10 seats to get the 51 seat majority that would be needed to break Vice President Joe Biden’s tie. A 50/50 split in the Senate is not out of the question, as is what happened in 2000, although Democrats would retain the majority in that situation instead of Republicans.

Election Projection 2010: October 27 Senate Update

Posted on: October 26th, 2010 by Kyle. | 2 Comments

We are now in the final stretch of the midterm elections. We have looked at every Senate race in the country. Between now and Election Day we are going to make some revisions as needed.

Adjustments

Connecticut – Democrat Richard Blumenthal has opened a double-digit lead over Republican Linda McMahon. The multi-millionaire McMahon, who has put her own fortune into the race, is seeing firsthand how difficult it is for conservative Republicans to win in the Northeast. Even more striking is that it is a strong year for Republicans in other parts of the country. Perhaps the one exception in this region is New Hampshire, where Republicans may pick up as many as two House seats and retain control of retiring Republican Judd Gregg’s Senate seat. At any rate, Connecticut is moving from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat.

Illinois – This is a race that should not have happened. Had it not been for the Rod Blagojevich deciding to try to sell a Senate seat (which resulted in a conviction of lying to the FBI), President Obama’s former seat would likely be held by a respected Congressperson like Jan Schakowsky or Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Instead, Democrats went through a messy ordeal where Blagojevich appointed sitting Senator Roland Burris, who decided not to run for the seat in his own right when he saw that he could neither raise the funds to mount a campaign nor win even if he had the fortune of Meg Whitman.

Democrats nominated the state’s Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, a young Obama protégé. Unfortunately for the party, he carried baggage from a family bank that went into federal receivership after it suffered from the same mortgage crisis that had gripped other banks nationwide. His Republican opponent, Congressman Mark Kirk, has a habit of lying about his military record and teaching experience, as well as flip-flopping positions. Needless to say, Giannoulias should be far ahead in the polls, but the fact that it is a Republican year and his family bank problems are dragging him down. It will be one of the closest in the country and could be decided by the support of third party candidates. The Green Party candidate could hand this seat to Mark Kirk and the Republicans. This race is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-up.

Kentucky – Democrats had hoped that Kentucky would be one of the few potential Republican seats that they could carry. Their candidate, Attorney General Jack Conway, is the Southern Democrat that can win statewide elections. Republican opponent Rand Paul is a quirky conservative that is too far right for even many Kentuckians. The race was close and some polls even had Conway ahead. Then the Conway campaign released an ad questioning Paul’s religion, saying that in college he worshiped “Aqua Buddha”, a reference to a CQ article alleging Paul forcibly told a woman in college to bow down and worship a bong that they smoked from. The Paul campaign immediately attacked the ad and the candidate himself refused to shake the hand of Conway at a debate. If the latest polls are any indication, the ad seems to have backfired, even if it is true. This race is moving from Toss-up to Leans Republican.


Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered with the above mentioned revisions:

Election Projection 2010: Northeast Senate Seats

Posted on: October 20th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

We’re now just two weeks away from the midterm elections. Today, we’re going to have a look at the Northeast:

Connecticut
Incumbent: Chris Dodd (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Linda McMahon (R), Richard Blumenthal (D)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Linda McMahon joins several other wealthy Republican businesswomen that have run for office this year (California’s Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are the other two). Each of them appears likely to lose in Democratically-inclined states. McMahon made her wealth as an executive for WWE (yes, that McMahon). Blumenthal has made a point that the company’s health record is not all that great. In fact, it’s quite poor. Several wrestlers died either while McMahon was the leader of the WWE or shortly after leaving the company. Blumenthal has problems of his own, taking credit for serving in Vietnam, when in fact, he was only in the military at the time, but not stationed in Vietnam. Still, even though both candidates have character flaws, Connecticut is a Democratic state and will likely elect Blumenthal. Polls show him leading anywhere from five points to double digits.

Delaware
Incumbent: Ted Kaufman (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Christine O’Donnell (R), Chris Coons (D)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Perhaps no Senate race has garnered more media coverage than Delaware. In a normal year, it wouldn’t get any attention at all. That was until political neophyte and Tea Party darling Christine O’Donnell knocked off Congressman and former governor Mike Castle, a moderate, to win the Republican Party’s primary. Castle was an overwhelming favorite to win the general election and give the Republicans a pick-up. Now the odds have flipped. Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold on to the former seat of Vice President Joe Biden. If Republicans manage to win 9 Senate seats this year, O’Donnell and the Tea Party will be vilified for handing the Senate to the Democrats.

Maryland
Incumbent: Barbara Mikulski (D)
Challenger(s): Eric Wargotz (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Not a whole lot to say about Maryland’s Senate race. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Mikulski will easily get re-elected over Republican challenger Eric Wargotz. The only question is by how much. The real race to watch in Maryland is for governor, where incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley finds himself in a rematch with the man whom he defeated in 2006, former governor Bob Ehrlich.

New Hampshire
Incumbent: Judd Gregg (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Kelly Ayotte (R), Paul Hodes (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

New Hampshire was a state that was trending towards the Democrats. While George W. Bush won the state in 2000, John Kerry picked it up in 2004, and Barack Obama improved upon that in 2008. Democrats won both House seats and the governor’s mansion in 2006 and a Senate seat in 2008, yet polling shows that Republicans are likely to pick up at least one (possibly both) of the state’s House seats and hold on to their remaining Senate seat. Paul Hodes, the Democratic Congressman running for the Senate, is trailing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte by anywhere from 5 to 15 points. Hodes saw a mini-surge in his standing when former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed Ayotte, but it does not appear to have helped him enough.

New York (A)
Incumbent: Chuck Schumer (D)
Challenger(s): Jay Townsend (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

New York is having two Senate races this year: one is the seat held by Chuck Schumer and the other is the former seat of Hillary Clinton, now held by Kirsten Gillibrand. Both Democrats are expected to win quite easily. Schumer has over $24 million in the bank and his Republican opponent has not even raised $100,000. If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid goes down in November, Schumer has shown interest for his job and would likely face off against Illinois Senator Dick Durbin.

New York (B)
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Challenger(s): Joseph DioGuardi (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Kirsten Gillibrand is an upstate New York politician and the incumbent Senator of her seat. She was appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat after she resigned to become Secretary of State. Gillibrand is conservative by New York standards, but has moved to the left since joining the Upper Chamber. As a former member of the House, she road the Democratic wave of 2006 to victory. While Gillibrand is the favorite over former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi, this will be a closer race than Schumer’s. Nonetheless, national Republicans are not putting any money into the race.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Arlen Specter (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Pat Toomey (R), Joe Sestak (D)
Prediction: Toss-up

There have been many odd races across the country so far this year. Pennsylvania was one of the first. Senator Arlen Specter, at the time a Republican, switched parties after he learned that he would face a challenge from far-right conservative Pat Toomey, a former congressman that challenged Specter in 2004. Toomey lost that race, but not by much, and was favored to beat Specter the second time. Specter switched parties and ran as a Democrat, hoping that no one would notice his voting record. While Specter voted reliably with the Democrats following his switch, Democratic voters had a choice of electing a real Democrat when Joe Sestak jumped into the race. Sestak had run in 2006 and won a Philadelphia area district. He was the underdog throughout most of the race, but brilliantly used ads showing Specter talking about he switched parties to be re-elected. Now Sestak finds himself in the underdog position yet again. However, polls have shown a tightening of the race with a couple even showing Sestak in the lead. Sestak also has a money advantage over Toomey in these final weeks.

Adjustments

Since our last update we have seen several changes in the Senate outlook, each of them at the expense of Democrats. Some states, such as Wisconsin, have moved from Leans Democrat to Toss-up. West Virginia, which was rated as Likely Democrat, is now Leans Democrat. Nevada is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; Florida Toss-Up to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Ohio from Toss-Up to Likely Republican; Arizona from Leans Republican to Likely Republican; Colorado from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; and Missouri from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. We’ll detail a few of these changes below:

Colorado – Appointed Senator Michael Bennet has struggled to fend off a challenge from Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. The outspoken Buck has said that he opposes abortion in all cases, including rape and incest. He has also said that being gay is a choice, not something that you are born with. Candidates like this would not normally win in a state like Colorado, but with a bad economy, voters are desperate.

Florida – Democrat Kendrick Meek and Governor Charlie Crist, a former Republican turned independent, have been nuking each other over the airwaves. Republican Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio has benefitted from this sniping and will probably squeak by with less than 50 percent of the vote. It isn’t possible for a divided left to win in a swing state like Florida. All Rubio needs to do is carry the Republican vote heavily and he wins.

Ohio – Ohio is a state that has simply gone out of reach for Democrats. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher is the Democratic candidate and Rob Portman the Republican, a former Congressman and Budget Director in the Bush administration. Fisher is a poor campaigner and fundraiser, while Portman has benefitted from the Bush donor list. National Democrats have pulled the plug on their financial support of Fisher, putting it in states where they think they can win (like Colorado and nearby Pennsylvania). On the other hand, Democratic hopes have improved in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Incumbent governor Ted Strickland has at least a 50/50 chance of winning re-election over Republican John Kasich.

Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:

Map

Democrats Gain Momentum Going into November

Posted on: October 3rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

With a little under one month to go before Election Day 2010, the fight for Congress is far from over. While Republicans had gained a sizable lead during the summer months, polling in the last few weeks has shown a tightening of the race. Several polls have even shown a Democratic lead on the generic Congressional ballot. This is a major change from August when Republicans had a double digit lead in some polls.

The first thing that people should know about polls is that they are not a predictor of what will happen in the future. A poll taken in August is worthless (or certainly in May). Why is that? Most people do not begin to pay attention to races until after Labor Day, the unofficial kickoff to the election season. Another reason is that undecided voters tend to make up their minds relatively close to Election Day.

Let’s take a look at where we stand right now on the generic ballot for Congress:

Republicans peaked in late August/early September and have been coming down ever since. Their one point lead is relatively meaningless when undecided voters overwhelmingly voted for Obama in 2008, indicating that their preference leans towards the Democrats. Once you remove Rasmussen from the poll average (a polling firm that has skewed heavily towards the GOP this cycle) and Zogby (which conducts its polls online and has a poor track record), we find that Democrats have actually surged into a one point advantage over the Republicans:

This is a significant change from just a few weeks ago. The trend lines are clear no matter whether you choose to include Republican-leaning Rasmussen or not. Democrats are climbing fast and Republicans are diving. Several explanations can be made as to why this is happening, but certainly the intensification of a fall campaign has a lot to do with it. Democrats, who were largely unmotivated throughout most of this year, appear to be getting out of their funk. A lot of this undoubtedly has to do with alarming victories by far-right Tea Party candidates across the country.

Also, while some in the media have declared that President Obama is a liability for Democrats, his approval rating stands in the mid to high 40s. When Republicans lost control of the House and Senate in 2006, President Bush’s approval rating stood in the low 30s. Democrats will undoubtedly still lose some seats. History tells us that the president’s party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. Whether it will be a blowout or not appears to be leaning in favor of the Democrats holding both chambers of Congress – if current trends continue and Democratic voters show up to the polls.

Election Projection 2010: West Coast Senate Seats

Posted on: September 2nd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

We’re getting closer to the midterm elections. As such, I will be posting my projections more frequently. Today, we’re going to have a look at the West Coast:

Alaska
Incumbent: Lisa Murkowski (R) – Defeated
Challenger(s): Joe Miller (R), Scott McAdams (D)
Prediction: Toss-Up

What a difference a few weeks make. Not even two weeks ago, Lisa Murkowski was ahead by double digits in the polls and was expected to cruise towards re-election. That ended after a week of ballot counting in which Sarah Palin-backed Tea Party candidate Joe Miller narrowly defeated Murkowski by 1,100 votes. Miller is a far-right candidate that has stated he wants to eliminate Social Security, that President Obama is “bad for America”, and that he will refuse earmarks to Alaska. Traditionally, Alaska has enjoyed nearly two dollars back for every one dollar that they send to Washington. While it’s popular to talk about deficit reduction, most voters back home expect you to bring home the bacon, especially in small states like Alaska. If this race is going to be close, which I expect it will be, it will be solely because the Republicans nominated an extremist candidate. Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, like Joe Miller, has no statewide experience.

Arizona
Incumbent: John McCain (R)
Challenger(s): Rodney Glassman (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

John McCain dispatched of former Representative J.D. Hayworth quite easily in Arizona’s GOP primary. With nearly 60 percent of the vote, McCain more or less ensured his re-election, even though he spent over $20 million to win the primary. The Democrats nominated a city councilman in Rodney Glassman. Whether this race becomes the least bit competitive will depend on if the national party decides to spend in Arizona, which seems unlikely given the number of other competitive races across the country. Still, McCain’s image has been badly tarnished since the presidential campaign just two years ago.

California
Incumbent: Barbara Boxer (D)
Challenger(s): Carly Fiorina (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

At least one thing is sure: two females will continue to represent California in the U.S. Senate. Barbara Boxer has a long streak of tough races and she survived in 2004, a rough year for Democrats. Her opponent, Carly Fiorina, is the former CEO of HP (she was terminated by the board of directors). While Fiorina brings a strong resume to the table, the fact that she is anti-abortion in a state that hasn’t elected a statewide anti-abortion candidate in decades does not bode well for her. On the plus side, she brings a lot of money to the table in a highly expensive state. If Meg Whitman can manage to buy the governor’s mansion with the $100+ million that she’s spent so far, Fiorina might manage to win this Senate seat. At this point, though, it’s still leaning towards Boxer.

Hawaii
Incumbent: Daniel K. Inouye (D)
Challenger(s): Cam Cavasso (R), Edward Pirkowski (R), John Roco (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Not much to say for Hawaii’s Senate race other than it will probably have the nicest Election Day (weather-wise) of any of the races in the country. Daniel Inouye will win re-election easily.

Nevada
Incumbent: Harry Reid (D)
Challenger(s): Sharron Angle (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Sharron Angle is the best thing that happened to the Democratic Party in Nevada. Her statements have ranged from crazy to downright bizarre (she claimed that the news media exists to report the news as she wants them to – this even confused the Fox News reporter conducting the interview). She called a bill that Congress passed to ensure that teachers and police officers were not laid off “laundered” money. She supports abolishing the Department of Education, privatizing Social Security and Medicare, and believes that the United States should withdrawal from the United Nations. Much like the other Tea Party candidates across the country, Angle is her own worst enemy. Even with an approval rating below 40 percent, Harry Reid just might manage to squeak by with the help of the Tea Party.

Oregon
Incumbent: Ron Wyden (D)
Challenger(s): Jim Huffman (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Ron Wyden is a popular and reasonable senator that garners a lot of respect from both Republicans and Democrats. He will win re-election easily.

Washington
Incumbent: Patty Murray (D)
Challenger(s): Dino Rossi (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Patty Murray was seen as a shoe-in not too long ago. Now that two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi is challenging her, it could be a close fight (he lost both races by small margins). President Obama won Washington with 57 percent of the vote and has been a fairly reliable state for Democrats for the past couple decades. In fact, a Republican hasn’t held Murray’s seat since 1986 and the state hasn’t voted for a Republican at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 rout of Walter Mondale. It could be relatively close, but Murray is still the favorite. If Republicans have any hope of taking back the Senate, which is extremely unlikely, they would have to knock down incumbents like Boxer and Murray.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.

Arkansas – Conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln is badly trailing her Republican challenger Congressman John Boozman. While it was already expected that she would lose, the race is being moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Polling shows Lincoln not just trailing by double digits, but nearly 30 points. It’s no longer a question of “if” Senator Lincoln loses, but instead “how much” she loses by.

Florida – Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek disposed of billionaire challenger (and former Republican) Jeff Greene 57 to 31 percent in the primary. Despite this, he is only garnering around 15 percent in the polls. Independent Charlie Crist’s main problem is not that he is an incumbent governor (he’s actually quite popular), but that he is relying on winning a sizable portion of Democrats, independents and Republicans. It’s not an easy task, but he has a far better shot of doing it than Meek, who has never even faced a challenger since he was elected to Congress in 2002. Polling has shown a tightening of the race, essentially a tie between Crist and conservative Republican Marco Rubio. This race is moving from Leans Democrat (assuming Crist was to caucus with the Democrats) to Toss-Up.

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold was caught off guard when public polling showed a close race against a no-name challenger. Interestingly, shortly after the Gulf oil spill disaster, the Republican candidate suggested that he would support oil exploration in Lake Michigan. Feingold was quick to criticize him with a TV ad highlighting his position on drilling in one of Wisconsin’s biggest tourist attractions. While Feingold will likely ultimately succeed in winning re-election, current polling suggests that we should move the race from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat.

Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:

Map

Election Projection 2010: Great Plains/Mountain West Senate Seats

Posted on: August 17th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

We’re getting closer to the midterm elections. As such, I will be posting my projections more frequently. The last projections that I published looked at races in the Midwest and South. Now we’re going to have a look at the Great Plains/Mountain West:

Colorado
Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D)
Challenger(s): Ken Buck (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Colorado is likely to be the only real competitive race in this entire region. That said, Democrats have a slight advantage with the defeat of the party’s pick, Jane Norton, to Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. Like other Tea Party candidates across the country, Buck is a weaker candidate in the general election and could help Democrats hold seats that were otherwise vulnerable. Senator Michael Bennet, who had never held elected office before, was appointed after President Obama nominated Ken Salazar to the Department of the Interior.

Idaho
Incumbent: Mike Crapo (R)
Challenger(s): Tom Sullivan (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

The last time Mike Crapo was up for re-election, in 2004, he won 99 percent of the vote. The other 1 percent went to write-in candidates. No Democrat challenged him that year. While Crapo has a challenger this year from Democrat Tom Sullivan, polls have shown the incumbent with a 40 point lead. This seat is safe for the GOP barring a Larry Craig-like controversy.

Kansas
Incumbent: Sam Brownback (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Jerry Moran (R), Lisa Johnston (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in order to seek the governor’s mansion in Kansas. His likely replacement is Representative Jerry Moran, who defeated Representative Todd Tiahrt. Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt and was featured in some of his campaign ads, yet it was not enough. No Democrat has held a Senate seat in Kansas since the 1930s.

North Dakota
Incumbent: Byron Dorgan (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Governor John Hoeven (R), Tracy Potter (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

One of the early signs that Democrats were in trouble came when Senator Byron Dorgan, a moderate from North Dakota, decided to retire instead of face a tough re-election battle to the state’s popular Republican governor. With Dorgan out of the race, Republicans are all but assured of picking up the seat. Democrats had managed to hold the two North Dakota Senate seats since 1987 and at least one of the seats since 1960.

Oklahoma
Incumbent: Tom Coburn (R)
Challenger(s): Jim Rogers (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Tom Coburn was elected to Congress as 1994’s “Republican Revolution”. He moved to the Upper Chamber in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote. Coburn’s seat has been held by Republicans since 1968. The last time a Democrat held a Senate seat in Oklahoma was in 1994, before James Inhofe assumed it from retiring Senator David Boren. Expect Coburn to crush his Democratic competition in November.

South Dakota
Incumbent: John Thune (R)
Challenger(s): No Challenger
Prediction: Likely Republican

There is no uncertainty around South Dakota’s Senate seat in 2010. John Thune will cruise to re-election as no Democrats have filed to challenge him. Thune, a possible candidate for president in 2012 or 2016, defeated Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a slim margin: 51-49%. The only person that could have even made this race competitive would have been Daschle, but seeing as he had tax woes and this election cycle seems to be favoring Republicans, even he would have had a difficult time unseating Thune.

Utah
Incumbent: Bob Bennett (R) – Defeated in Primary
Challenger(s): Mike Lee (R), Sam Granato (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

You can hardly get more Republican than Utah. The real race in this state was not the upcoming general election but instead the Republican primary. Conservatives ousted sitting Senator Bob Bennett, a mainstream conservative who voted with the party over 90 percent of the time. Conservative voting records only go so far for the Tea Party crowd when you vote for bank bailouts as Bennett did in 2008.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.

North Carolina is one of those states. Senator Richard Burr has suffered from poor approval ratings throughout his first term. Nearly every current poll has him under 50 percent support, some as low as 39%. While he continues to lead his Democratic opponent, Elaine Marshall, the gap between them is fast dwindling. This race is being changed from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up”. As we previously noted, Senator Burr voted against an extension of unemployment benefits in a state that has nearly double digit unemployment. This is not likely to play well with voters in North Carolina.

Illinois is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”. Alexi Giannoulias has taken a slight lead in the polls. Republican Mark Kirk had led or tied Giannoulias in the polls until revelations that he exaggerated his military service emerged. Kirk claimed that he received a military award that he did not. Kirk also claimed that he was a nursery school teacher. However, a member of the school said that, “he was never, ever considered a teacher,” but instead played with the children. Given that this is Obama’s adopted home state and the Democratic tilt of Illinois, Giannoulias should manage to win, although it will be somewhat close.

Below is a map of the Southern, Great Plains, Mountain West and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first three election projection updates:

Map

Bennet and Buck Win in CO, Lamont Loses in CT

Posted on: August 10th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

The anti-incumbent “wave”, which I pointed out has only swept away six out of 282 incumbents so far this year, failed to topple appointed Democratic Senator Michael Bennet. The Obama-backed Bennet faced party insider and former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Interestingly, former President Bill Clinton endorsed Romanoff against the White House’s wishes, but his candidate still lost anyway.

On the Republican side, Tea Party favorite Ken Buck is leading Washington favorite Jane Norton, a former Lt. Governor. Buck possibly hurt his chances with his Tea Party base when he called them “dumbasses” for making Obama’s birth certificate an issue in the campaign. Not exactly the way to close a campaign. At either rate, Norton was the favorite and she now trails. Finally, Republican Dan Maes leads Scott McInnis in the GOP’s primary for governor. McInnis was recently caught plagiarizing work that he was paid $300,000 for.

Colorado Senate Primary

Michael Bennet (D) – 54.3%
Andrew Romanoff (D) – 45.6%

Ken Buck (R) – 51.6%
Jane Norton (R) – 48.3%

Colorado Gubernatorial Primary

Dan Maes (R) – 50.1%
Scott McInnis (R) – 49.8%

Ned Lamont, a liberal favorite and victor over Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary for Senate, lost his bid for governor to Democrat Dan Malloy 58-42. Republicans nominated Tom Foley with 42 percent of the vote. Democrats see Connecticut as a key pick-up opportunity. On the Senate side, Republicans nominated WWE Linda McMahon beat former Congressman Rob Simmons 49-28. Democrats nominated Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for the seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd.

Connecticut Gubernatorial Primary

Tom Foley (R) – 42%
Michael Fedele (R) – 39%
Oz Griebel (R) – 19%

Dan Malloy (D) – 58%
Ned Lamont (D) – 42%

Connecticut Senate Primary

Linda McMahon (R) – 49%
Rob Simmons (R) – 28%
Peter Schiff (R) – 23%

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