No matter the outcome of the midterm election, it is indisputable that the last Congress was one of the most productive ever. For all of the Pelosi haters out there, Speaker Pelosi accomplished a great deal in the past four years, including many things that Republicans would have supported in the past (such as tax cuts). Her image as a “San Francisco liberal” did not make her many friends in the nation’s mid-section and President Obama rarely defended her, despite the fact that she was carrying his bucket in the House. Here are just a few of the many accomplishments that Pelosi managed when she was House Speaker:

*Extending unemployment benefits. The roughly 10-15% of people unemployed in this area (depending on which county you live in) would not have unemployment benefits if the GOP had their way.
*Expanding health care coverage to all Americans by 2014 (unless Republicans de-fund it, which is quite possible)
*Regulating the banks to make sure that future bailouts do not happen.
*Ending the bank bailouts from the Bush years.
*Increasing funding for financial aid to college, including Pell Grants and reducing the cost of student loans.
*Creating an estimated 3.7 million jobs with the Recovery Act

I would stand by that record any day of the week. The Republicans got us into the ditch and the Democrats got us out. It wasn’t easy and times are still tough, but we are on the path to recovery. Going down the Republican path of de-regulation and tax cuts for the rich will only ensure a future economic collapse.

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In other words, while Democrats will have to defend their vote in tough districts, nearly double the number of Republicans find themselves in similar situations. Worse yet for the GOP, there is evidence that support for the bill is significantly improving from where it was just a couple months ago when Democrats lost the Massachusetts Senate seat long held by Ted Kennedy.

President Obama’s approval rating on health care stood at 36-54 opposed in January (according to CBS) and was up to 41-51 by this past weekend before the vote took place. That’s a shift of 8 points in about a two month period and that is before the House even passed the bill. Undoubtedly, those numbers will continue to improve as the positive coverage from the bill’s passage continues. The president’s overall job approval is at 49-41 positive, an improvement from 46-41 in January.

What these numbers show is that the negative feelings towards this bill have peaked and the positive feelings are on the way up. As various aspects of the bill begin to be felt relatively quickly, such as kids being able to stay on their parent’s insurance plan until age 26 or the ban on pre-existing conditions, approval will continue to improve. Americans will realize that the Armageddon that Republicans literally said would take place after the bill passed was nothing more than scare tactics.

Not only are calls for repealing the bill ridiculously unrealistic (President Obama would veto any repeal), they also will ring hallow in November. Voters will question why the Republican Party is campaigning on a platform of repealing a ban on pre-existing conditions, filling the Medicare prescription doughnut hole, extending health insurance to 32 million Americans and reducing the deficit by over $1 trillion over the next two decades.

Let’s get back to those 32 House Republicans that voted against health care in districts that President Obama won. Below is a list of all of them:

Judy Biggert IL-13
Brian Bilbray CA-50
Mary Bono Mack CA-45
Ken Calvert CA-44
Dave Camp MI-4
John Campbell CA-48
Anh “Joseph” Cao LA-2
Michael Castle DE-AL
Charles Dent PA-15
David Dreier CA-26
Randy Forbes VA-4
Elton Gallegly CA-24
Jim Gerlach PA-6
Mark Kirk IL-10
Leonard Lance NJ-7
Tom Latham IA-4
Frank LoBiondo NJ-2
Daniel Lungren CA-3
Donald Manzullo IL-16
Thaddeus McCotter MI-11
Howard “Buck” McKeon CA-25
Erik Paulsen MN-3
Thomas Petri WI-6
David Reichert WA-8
Mike Rogers MI-8
Peter Roskam IL-6
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen FL-18
Paul Ryan WI-1
Lee Terry NE-2
Patrick Tiberi OH-12
Fred Upton MI-6
Frank Wolf VA-10
Bill Young FL-10

Two are running for the Senate, Mark Kirk of Illinois and Mike Castle of Delaware. Both of those districts are favored to be won by Democrats. Representative Cao sits in a heavily Democratic New Orleans district and was only elected because the sitting member was a convicted felon. He voted for the House bill last November, but opposed it on Sunday. You can count him as a lame duck. Democrats are sure to win that seat back.

Go down the list and you can see some vulnerable names in Democratic or Democratic-trending districts: Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert in the Chicago suburbs, Jim Gerlach whose failed bid for governor has undoubtedly put him behind the game in his suburban Philadelphia district, Dan Lungren of California went from 62% support in the 2004 election to 49% in 2008.

With the right challengers facing each of these vulnerable Republicans, Democrats have a good chance at winning a few of these seats. The Republican takeover of Congress that conservatives are talking about seems a long way away when you add that to the Democrats which are already favored to pick up Mark Kirk’s seat in Illinois, Mike Castle’s in Delaware and Cao’s in Louisiana.

Despite phony concern coming from Republican leaders over the political impact that health care reform would have on Democrats, most evidence suggests that passing the bill enhances their chances of retaining majority status. The Democratic Party in Congress and President Obama have, without a single Republican vote, passed historic legislation to provide universal health care coverage for Americans. This goal has eluded every president since Tedd Roosevelt over 100 years ago. It’s an achievement that puts them in the history books and on safer political ground than they would have been if Republicans succeeded in killing the bill.

Let me be clear that I do not mean to say that Democrats will gain seats in the midterm election this fall. I believe that we will see modest losses in the House and a handful in the Senate. This falls well within the political history of the president’s party losing seats in a midterm election. Democrats won in places in 2008 that we normally wouldn’t have: conservative districts in Alabama and Idaho, among others. These are likely lost causes in 2010. But the talk of a takeover of both the House and Senate by Republicans is overblown. They will not win either chamber for a long time to come.

President Barack Obama won the election by 10 million votes. Not only did he win traditional swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, he also carried states that traditionally leaned Republican such as Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada. For an organization with very limited resources, Republicans seem to think that ACORN has the ability to steal elections even in states with Republican governors (such as Indiana, Florida and Nevada) running the show.

A poll taken in September found that “42 percent of Republicans believe that President Obama was not born in the United States, while 22 percent still remain uncertain of his birthplace origin.” Finally, a third poll showing just how crazy the Republican Party has become asks respondents whether the president should be impeached. While only 20 percent of Americans support such action, 35 percent of Republicans believe that President Obama should be impeached.

The only grounds for impeachment, according to the Constitution are for “high crimes and misdemeanors”, something that arguably could be used against say – President Bush for ordering the use of torture and misleading the nation into a war. What exactly President Obama has done that constitutes a high crime – other than enact policies that the country voted for – I’m not quite sure.

These types of beliefs don’t mesh well with mainstream America. Believing that our president is not only illegitimate, but a secret Muslim born in another country is considered loony – even in most conservative circles. The Tea Party movement is clear in what they want to do. “Our goal is to take over the Republican Party,” Matt Kibbe said on Hardball. If the Republican Party does not get their crazy elements under control, a year in which they could make inroads, 2010 may end up seeing more Democrats getting elected to Congress.

We have a lot to celebrate from yesterday’s results, and a lot to be disappointed about as well. The election of Barack Obama as president confirms that we, as a nation, have come a long way since the civil rights movement that gave African Americans voting protections, ended segregation in the South and punished those that commit hate crimes.

While the Civil War was won nearly one hundred and fifty years ago, the electoral map of 2008 vividly displays the divide between North and South. Yet for the first time since 1964, the state of Indiana joined its Midwestern neighbors in backing a Democrat for president. This is astounding in itself, as Obama managed to win heavily white rural counties, including those in Southern Indiana, which were once a hotbed of KKK activity. But it was the counties that include South Bend, Lafayette, Bloomington, Gary and Indianapolis that delivered 15%+ victories to help Obama win a state that George W. Bush carried by 21% in 2004.

He also won in the Southern states of Virginia, which like Indiana has not voted for a Democrat since 1964, North Carolina and Florida. The growth of these states in recent years has brought young professionals from all over the country to seek jobs and a new way of life in cities like Richmond, Charlotte, Orlando and Tampa Bay. Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi were the closest that they have been since 1996. The “Solid South” in the next few years will begin to be seeing a little more blue.

At the same time as Americans celebrated the election of the first black president, a new class of citizens came under assault. Gay Americans suffered major setbacks as discrimination was written into the constitutions of Arizona, California and Florida. Proposition 8 in California, which passed 52% to 48%, will reverse the California Supreme Court decision earlier this year that legalized gay marriage in the state. With the help of a massive effort from the Mormon Church, who literally flooded the state with volunteers to pass Proposition 8, Californians singled out a class of their fellow citizens as second class by revoking their right to legally marry.

For those that voted for Proposition 8 and others like it, how does a gay person’s marriage affect you? Proponents of banning gay marriage claimed that society would go into chaos, yet that hasn’t exactly happened in Massachusetts, California, Canada or European countries where gay marriage is legalized. The argument against gay marriage is based in religious doctrine and has no place in determining our laws.

For those of you that find yourself on the fence or are confused about the issue, let me explain something that is vitally important for you to know: legalizing gay marriage DOES NOT mean that your church will have to perform gay weddings. It would be unconstitutional for the state to tell a church what they have to do. The question here is whether a gay couple has the legal right, under state law, to civil marriage. If you picture in your head a ceremony and then picture going to the courthouse for a wedding license, the only thing that is affected is the piece of paper that you receive from the state. Gay marriage guarantees equal rights under the law for gay couples. It does not mean that churches will have to perform the wedding ceremony.

The fact that a simple majority can alter the constitution of a state to embed hateful and discriminatory policies towards one group of Americans should be alarming to everyone. I am a strong advocate for your right to practice religion as you want. But that does not give anyone the right to tell me that I can not marry the person that I love. For America, November 4, 2008 will be a day that one group of Americans took a step forward and another group took a step back. The hopes and dreams of a nation now ride on the actions of a newly elected president and Congress that are more sympathetic to the needs of its people than the Republicans and George Bush.

Looking at the map, the only states that Kerry won in 2004 that appear to be at any risk at all of flipping are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Yet McCain has been unable to connect with working class voters in Midwestern battlegrounds and the voters in New Hampshire, who booted a pair of Republican Congressman, elected a Democratic governor and wrested control of both houses of their state legislature to the Democrats in 2006 seem unlikely to embrace John McCain’s message.

That leaves the race for the White House largely on Republican territory. While Barack Obama is spending heavily in the red states of Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and Alaska, McCain has brushed these ad buys off as diversion tactics meant to siphon resources from the traditional battleground states of Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Pennsylvania and so on. With polls in Florida and Indiana with Obama ahead, and polls showing a tight race in North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and Alaska, it doesn’t seem that McCain can ignore these states for long.

Below is our latest map based on “safe” states (where either Obama or McCain have a 10% advantage). Compared to June 22, we are moving Wisconsin to “safe” Obama and Louisiana to “safe” McCain. The biggest movement has taken place in the gray area between “toss-up” and “lean” which we define as anything below 10%. Arizona, Arkansas, South Dakota and North Dakota have been moved into this gray area because they are within 10%. No, that’s not a typo. Arizona, John McCain’s home state, is now competitive. Louisiana, West Virginia and Wisconsin have been moved out.

The next map shows states that we would consider true “toss-ups”. We define this as anything below 5%. Both Obama and McCain have lost ground since our last update as a number of states can qualify as true “toss-ups”. Since June, Colorado, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota have been added as “toss-up” states. The only toss-up from June to be removed is Michigan, which is now a “lean” Obama state.

An interesting pattern is developing, and just goes to show why having a Midwestern Democratic at the top of the ticket can be so beneficial. Every state that Illinois borders in the Midwest is either leaning Obama or considered a toss-up. Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana and Missouri account for 39 Electoral Votes. Throw in Illinois’ 21 and you reach a whopping 60 Electoral Votes, or approximately a quarter needed to become president. This doesn’t even include the Midwestern giants of Michigan or Ohio, nor does it include Minnesota. It is conceivable that Obama may sweep the entire Midwest’s 107 Electoral Votes, or 40% needed to become president.

Does McCain have a similar type of advantage in the West? Most of these states have been traditionally Republican, anyway, but the West has comparatively fewer Electoral Votes up for grabs than in the Midwest or the Northeast. Looking at the map, though, Arizona’s border states include California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah. Among them, only Utah is considered “safe” with its 5 Electoral Votes. California and New Mexico are “safe” or “leaning” Obama, and both Nevada and Colorado are pure toss-ups. While Obama could conceivably get 60 Electoral Votes out of states that border Illinois (and 107 out of the Midwest), McCain may only get 15 Electoral Votes out of the states that border his home state (including Arizona). Geographically, the Democrats picked the right candidate and the Republicans picked the wrong one.

1. Will show states that favor either Obama or McCain and states that are competitive with the difference being less than 10%

2. The second map will show the same states that favor Obama or McCain, but add a category of “lean” Obama or McCain (between 5-10%) and then “toss-up” (less than 5%)

3. The third map is my personal prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out on Election Day. This one is not necessarily based on current polling, but trends, demographics, turnout projection and so on.

Let’s get to this week’s changes to the map. We have a few things going on here. First, we see that the post-primary bump for Barack Obama is driving up his poll numbers both in state and national polls. A new Newsweek poll has him up by 15% over McCain nationally.

The state-by-state picture is even brighter this week than it was last week for Obama. Two states have fallen into our “safe” state category this week: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Obama now leads by greater than 10%. Meanwhile, Florida unexpectedly moves from “leans” McCain to “toss-up” as a poll out this week had Obama up in the state by 4%. McCain’s recent comments about off-shore oil drilling could very well hurt him even more in the Sunshine State where tourism is a key economic issue.

This week we have six “lean” McCain states (which means he is leading between 5-10%). They are: Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, South Carolina and West Virginia. This is not good news for McCain, as five of his six states where he has a small lead are traditionally conservative Republican states, while Obama’s “lean” states include Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and New Mexico, which all voted for Bush in 2004. The only state that voted for Kerry that I have in the “lean” column for Obama is Wisconsin.

Among toss-up states are a few surprises (Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina), while the perennial battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, Missouri and Nevada all make a showing as “toss-ups”. Virginia is also included in this category. Of the eight toss-up states 7 voted for George Bush in 2004 and only 1 voted for John Kerry in 2004. Like the “lean” category, this means that Obama is expanding the playing field while McCain is stuck with only Michigan as a potential pick-up.

Sources:

National polls:

Obama 51, McCain 36 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

State polls:

Toss-up States

Alaska:

McCain 45, Obama 41 – June 15, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/alaska/toplines_alaska_presidential_race_june_16_2008

Florida:

Obama 47, McCain 43 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

Georgia:

McCain 44, Obama 43 – June 19, 2008 – http://www.ajc.com/search/content/news/stories/2008/06/19/mccain_obama_georgia.html

Nevada:

McCain 45, Obama 42 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

North Carolina:

McCain 45, Obama 43 – June 10, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_carolina/toplines_north_carolina_presidential_election_june_10_2008

Competitive/“Lean” States

Ohio:

Obama 48, McCain 42 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

“Safe” States

New Hampshire:

Obama 50, McCain 39 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

Pennsylvania:

Obama 52, McCain 40 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

With the primaries behind us, the map is begin to shape up more favorably for Obama, as should be expected. Things will only get better for him between now and November as Hillary supporters come home, Democrats unite, voters become more familiar with Barack Obama and the economy continues to falter. This latest update sees only one state (Texas) move out of “competitive” territory while a whole slate of states move into the gray area of “toss-up” and “competitive” as we move the marker from being less than 5% to less than 10%.

As we really don’t know what to expect yet and polling remains limited in many states, it makes more sense to not rule out upsets in states like Montana, Louisiana, South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. This mainly hurts McCain, as he is enjoying slight edges in states that would in any other year be considered solidly Republican. But since his margins in states like Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Indiana and a whole slew of states are under 10%, these states are certainly far from safe. With enough time on the ground and ads on television, Obama could put all of these places in play.

This map compares strikingly to the map that we first unveiled on May 29, 2008 (shown below):

Another thing to keep in mind for Nebraska is that they distribute their electoral votes. They have a statewide winner, then winners by Congressional District. The statewide winner gets 2 of the state’s electoral votes, and the winner of each of the three Congressional District will receive 1 a piece. Polls show that Obama is statistically tied with McCain in the Omaha-anchored Congressional district in Nebraska, which could net him 1 electoral vote. He is also within five points in another, while trailing statewide by less than 10%. Right now we have Nebraska in the “competitive” category on the <10% map and on the map without toss-ups, McCain is receiving all 5 electoral votes. This may change within the next few updates. Below is my projection map without toss-up states:

The Democrats start off with a huge advantage. This week Scott McClellan came out with details from his upcoming book. The information he reveals is nothing really new (we already knew that the White House lied to the American people and used propaganda). That said, his book goes to show how deep the dislike for the Bush administration runs… it goes all the way to former administration officials.

McCain is going to have to deal with an unpopular president, a recession, the war, $4 gasoline and the fact that Democrats have millions of new voters. On top of that, he will trail Obama dramatically in cash-on-hand and will face a 50 state organization in Obama’s that we haven’t ever seen before. The poll in Mississippi showing Obama behind by 6 points, the polls in Indiana having him up and Virginia where it is in single digits – all states that have voted Republican for decades (two of which have since 1964 – are clearly in play. Of them, I only expect Obama to win Virginia, but forcing McCain to compete in deep red Republican states almost guarantee victory.

The next map is of states that I expect to be in play this fall. These “swing states” are largely familiar to those that have followed politics since 2000. Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania. But Obama is expected to bring a number of states to the table that both Al Gore and John Kerry were unable to win.

Four of the swing states are in the Southwest: Nevada, New Mexico Colorado and Texas. They account for 53 electoral votes, or roughly 1/5 of the 270 electoral votes needed to become president. The other bloc of states are in the South: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and yes – Mississippi – account for 61 electoral votes or nearly 1/4 of the needed 270. People fail to remember that Mississippi has the highest percentage of African Americans in the United States. The Northeast, which includes liberal New England, is trending heavily Democrat. New Hampshire elected a Democratic governor in 2006 and two Democratic House members. Former NH governor Jeanne Shaheen is expected to beat Bush Republican John Sununu and take his Senate seat. While New Hampshire will undoubtedly be competitive (especially considering McCain’s history in the state), I think it will continue its Democratic trend. Pennsylvania is the only other state in the Northeast that will be competitive.

The real battleground will yet again be the Midwest. Of the 270 electoral votes needed, 69 will be up for grabs in the Midwestern “battleground/swing states”. That’s over 25% of the needed electoral votes to become president. Wisconsin and Iowa were both decided by about 10,000 votes in 2000 and 2004. Ohio was the difference between a Bush and Kerry administration in 2004. Michigan, Minnesota and Missouri haven’t budged at all, despite the close margins. Michigan and Minnesota will prove elusive for the Republicans yet again in 2008, and Missouri will elect both a Democratic governor and help elect Barack Obama.

This year I expect Minnesota won’t be very close and neither will Iowa. I expect Obama will win both by more than 5%. If you include Minnesota and Iowa in the “swing states” list, the Midwest will have 86 electoral votes that are truly competitive – or 1/3 of the needed electoral votes to win. The economy will be McCain’s biggest drag in Michigan and Ohio where economic concerns are high on voters minds. Missouri is a bellweather state that tipped the balance of power in the Senate in 2006. Had Gore won the state in 2000, he would be president. Obama narrowly won Missouri, as well as other Illinois border states Iowa and Wisconsin. He lost to Hillary in Indiana by 14,000, but polls have him up or tied against McCain. Unless Obama makes a play for the state, I don’t expect him to win it. That said, if he picks someone like Evan Bayh to be his VP, he may have a serious shot at winning the state. Otherwise, it will be much closer than it has been in decades.

That’s all I have for now. I will update Kylebell.com’s Election Projection 2008 each week if news and polls warrant.