Alaska
Incumbent: Lisa Murkowski (R) – Defeated
Challenger(s): Joe Miller (R), Scott McAdams (D)
Prediction: Toss-Up

What a difference a few weeks make. Not even two weeks ago, Lisa Murkowski was ahead by double digits in the polls and was expected to cruise towards re-election. That ended after a week of ballot counting in which Sarah Palin-backed Tea Party candidate Joe Miller narrowly defeated Murkowski by 1,100 votes. Miller is a far-right candidate that has stated he wants to eliminate Social Security, that President Obama is “bad for America”, and that he will refuse earmarks to Alaska. Traditionally, Alaska has enjoyed nearly two dollars back for every one dollar that they send to Washington. While it’s popular to talk about deficit reduction, most voters back home expect you to bring home the bacon, especially in small states like Alaska. If this race is going to be close, which I expect it will be, it will be solely because the Republicans nominated an extremist candidate. Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, like Joe Miller, has no statewide experience.

Arizona
Incumbent: John McCain (R)
Challenger(s): Rodney Glassman (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

John McCain dispatched of former Representative J.D. Hayworth quite easily in Arizona’s GOP primary. With nearly 60 percent of the vote, McCain more or less ensured his re-election, even though he spent over $20 million to win the primary. The Democrats nominated a city councilman in Rodney Glassman. Whether this race becomes the least bit competitive will depend on if the national party decides to spend in Arizona, which seems unlikely given the number of other competitive races across the country. Still, McCain’s image has been badly tarnished since the presidential campaign just two years ago.

California
Incumbent: Barbara Boxer (D)
Challenger(s): Carly Fiorina (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

At least one thing is sure: two females will continue to represent California in the U.S. Senate. Barbara Boxer has a long streak of tough races and she survived in 2004, a rough year for Democrats. Her opponent, Carly Fiorina, is the former CEO of HP (she was terminated by the board of directors). While Fiorina brings a strong resume to the table, the fact that she is anti-abortion in a state that hasn’t elected a statewide anti-abortion candidate in decades does not bode well for her. On the plus side, she brings a lot of money to the table in a highly expensive state. If Meg Whitman can manage to buy the governor’s mansion with the $100+ million that she’s spent so far, Fiorina might manage to win this Senate seat. At this point, though, it’s still leaning towards Boxer.

Hawaii
Incumbent: Daniel K. Inouye (D)
Challenger(s): Cam Cavasso (R), Edward Pirkowski (R), John Roco (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Not much to say for Hawaii’s Senate race other than it will probably have the nicest Election Day (weather-wise) of any of the races in the country. Daniel Inouye will win re-election easily.

Nevada
Incumbent: Harry Reid (D)
Challenger(s): Sharron Angle (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Sharron Angle is the best thing that happened to the Democratic Party in Nevada. Her statements have ranged from crazy to downright bizarre (she claimed that the news media exists to report the news as she wants them to – this even confused the Fox News reporter conducting the interview). She called a bill that Congress passed to ensure that teachers and police officers were not laid off “laundered” money. She supports abolishing the Department of Education, privatizing Social Security and Medicare, and believes that the United States should withdrawal from the United Nations. Much like the other Tea Party candidates across the country, Angle is her own worst enemy. Even with an approval rating below 40 percent, Harry Reid just might manage to squeak by with the help of the Tea Party.

Oregon
Incumbent: Ron Wyden (D)
Challenger(s): Jim Huffman (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Ron Wyden is a popular and reasonable senator that garners a lot of respect from both Republicans and Democrats. He will win re-election easily.

Washington
Incumbent: Patty Murray (D)
Challenger(s): Dino Rossi (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Patty Murray was seen as a shoe-in not too long ago. Now that two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi is challenging her, it could be a close fight (he lost both races by small margins). President Obama won Washington with 57 percent of the vote and has been a fairly reliable state for Democrats for the past couple decades. In fact, a Republican hasn’t held Murray’s seat since 1986 and the state hasn’t voted for a Republican at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 rout of Walter Mondale. It could be relatively close, but Murray is still the favorite. If Republicans have any hope of taking back the Senate, which is extremely unlikely, they would have to knock down incumbents like Boxer and Murray.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.

Arkansas – Conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln is badly trailing her Republican challenger Congressman John Boozman. While it was already expected that she would lose, the race is being moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Polling shows Lincoln not just trailing by double digits, but nearly 30 points. It’s no longer a question of “if” Senator Lincoln loses, but instead “how much” she loses by.

Florida – Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek disposed of billionaire challenger (and former Republican) Jeff Greene 57 to 31 percent in the primary. Despite this, he is only garnering around 15 percent in the polls. Independent Charlie Crist’s main problem is not that he is an incumbent governor (he’s actually quite popular), but that he is relying on winning a sizable portion of Democrats, independents and Republicans. It’s not an easy task, but he has a far better shot of doing it than Meek, who has never even faced a challenger since he was elected to Congress in 2002. Polling has shown a tightening of the race, essentially a tie between Crist and conservative Republican Marco Rubio. This race is moving from Leans Democrat (assuming Crist was to caucus with the Democrats) to Toss-Up.

Wisconsin – Russ Feingold was caught off guard when public polling showed a close race against a no-name challenger. Interestingly, shortly after the Gulf oil spill disaster, the Republican candidate suggested that he would support oil exploration in Lake Michigan. Feingold was quick to criticize him with a TV ad highlighting his position on drilling in one of Wisconsin’s biggest tourist attractions. While Feingold will likely ultimately succeed in winning re-election, current polling suggests that we should move the race from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat.

Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:

Map

Murkowski’s defeat is the latest in a string of upsets for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who has also seen more traditional and mainstream Republican candidates lose or forced out in Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Nevada and Utah. The Tea Party victories jeopardize three Republican-held seats (Florida, Kentucky and now Alaska) and Democrat-held pick-up opportunities in Colorado and Nevada.

Miller credited the support of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his possible upset. “I’m absolutely certain that was pivotal,” he said. Not surprisingly, Senator Murkowski had a different take on Palin’s support for her opponent. “I think she’s out for her own self-interest. I don’t think she’s out for Alaska’s interest,” Murkowski said.

Senator Murkowski and Sarah Palin have a history of conflict. In 2006, Palin resoundingly defeated Murkowski’s father in the GOP primary for governor. Frank Murkowski came in third place during that primary and received only 19 percent of the vote. Coincidentally, he had appointed his daughter to the Senate seat that he left empty upon assuming the governor’s office in 2002.

If Miller pulls off the victory, he could put this seat into play for the Democrats. Murkowski was seen as a safe choice, but with a far-right political unknown taking the Republican Party’s nomination, it is possible that Democrats could make this race competitive. It was only two years ago that Mark Begich defeated incumbent Senator Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican member at the time.

Colorado
Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D)
Challenger(s): Ken Buck (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Colorado is likely to be the only real competitive race in this entire region. That said, Democrats have a slight advantage with the defeat of the party’s pick, Jane Norton, to Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. Like other Tea Party candidates across the country, Buck is a weaker candidate in the general election and could help Democrats hold seats that were otherwise vulnerable. Senator Michael Bennet, who had never held elected office before, was appointed after President Obama nominated Ken Salazar to the Department of the Interior.

Idaho
Incumbent: Mike Crapo (R)
Challenger(s): Tom Sullivan (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

The last time Mike Crapo was up for re-election, in 2004, he won 99 percent of the vote. The other 1 percent went to write-in candidates. No Democrat challenged him that year. While Crapo has a challenger this year from Democrat Tom Sullivan, polls have shown the incumbent with a 40 point lead. This seat is safe for the GOP barring a Larry Craig-like controversy.

Kansas
Incumbent: Sam Brownback (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Jerry Moran (R), Lisa Johnston (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in order to seek the governor’s mansion in Kansas. His likely replacement is Representative Jerry Moran, who defeated Representative Todd Tiahrt. Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt and was featured in some of his campaign ads, yet it was not enough. No Democrat has held a Senate seat in Kansas since the 1930s.

North Dakota
Incumbent: Byron Dorgan (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Governor John Hoeven (R), Tracy Potter (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

One of the early signs that Democrats were in trouble came when Senator Byron Dorgan, a moderate from North Dakota, decided to retire instead of face a tough re-election battle to the state’s popular Republican governor. With Dorgan out of the race, Republicans are all but assured of picking up the seat. Democrats had managed to hold the two North Dakota Senate seats since 1987 and at least one of the seats since 1960.

Oklahoma
Incumbent: Tom Coburn (R)
Challenger(s): Jim Rogers (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Tom Coburn was elected to Congress as 1994’s “Republican Revolution”. He moved to the Upper Chamber in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote. Coburn’s seat has been held by Republicans since 1968. The last time a Democrat held a Senate seat in Oklahoma was in 1994, before James Inhofe assumed it from retiring Senator David Boren. Expect Coburn to crush his Democratic competition in November.

South Dakota
Incumbent: John Thune (R)
Challenger(s): No Challenger
Prediction: Likely Republican

There is no uncertainty around South Dakota’s Senate seat in 2010. John Thune will cruise to re-election as no Democrats have filed to challenge him. Thune, a possible candidate for president in 2012 or 2016, defeated Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a slim margin: 51-49%. The only person that could have even made this race competitive would have been Daschle, but seeing as he had tax woes and this election cycle seems to be favoring Republicans, even he would have had a difficult time unseating Thune.

Utah
Incumbent: Bob Bennett (R) – Defeated in Primary
Challenger(s): Mike Lee (R), Sam Granato (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

You can hardly get more Republican than Utah. The real race in this state was not the upcoming general election but instead the Republican primary. Conservatives ousted sitting Senator Bob Bennett, a mainstream conservative who voted with the party over 90 percent of the time. Conservative voting records only go so far for the Tea Party crowd when you vote for bank bailouts as Bennett did in 2008.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.

North Carolina is one of those states. Senator Richard Burr has suffered from poor approval ratings throughout his first term. Nearly every current poll has him under 50 percent support, some as low as 39%. While he continues to lead his Democratic opponent, Elaine Marshall, the gap between them is fast dwindling. This race is being changed from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up”. As we previously noted, Senator Burr voted against an extension of unemployment benefits in a state that has nearly double digit unemployment. This is not likely to play well with voters in North Carolina.

Illinois is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”. Alexi Giannoulias has taken a slight lead in the polls. Republican Mark Kirk had led or tied Giannoulias in the polls until revelations that he exaggerated his military service emerged. Kirk claimed that he received a military award that he did not. Kirk also claimed that he was a nursery school teacher. However, a member of the school said that, “he was never, ever considered a teacher,” but instead played with the children. Given that this is Obama’s adopted home state and the Democratic tilt of Illinois, Giannoulias should manage to win, although it will be somewhat close.

Below is a map of the Southern, Great Plains, Mountain West and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first three election projection updates:

Map

On the Republican side, Tea Party favorite Ken Buck is leading Washington favorite Jane Norton, a former Lt. Governor. Buck possibly hurt his chances with his Tea Party base when he called them “dumbasses” for making Obama’s birth certificate an issue in the campaign. Not exactly the way to close a campaign. At either rate, Norton was the favorite and she now trails. Finally, Republican Dan Maes leads Scott McInnis in the GOP’s primary for governor. McInnis was recently caught plagiarizing work that he was paid $300,000 for.

Colorado Senate Primary

Michael Bennet (D) – 54.3%
Andrew Romanoff (D) – 45.6%

Ken Buck (R) – 51.6%
Jane Norton (R) – 48.3%

Colorado Gubernatorial Primary

Dan Maes (R) – 50.1%
Scott McInnis (R) – 49.8%

Ned Lamont, a liberal favorite and victor over Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary for Senate, lost his bid for governor to Democrat Dan Malloy 58-42. Republicans nominated Tom Foley with 42 percent of the vote. Democrats see Connecticut as a key pick-up opportunity. On the Senate side, Republicans nominated WWE Linda McMahon beat former Congressman Rob Simmons 49-28. Democrats nominated Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for the seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd.

Connecticut Gubernatorial Primary

Tom Foley (R) – 42%
Michael Fedele (R) – 39%
Oz Griebel (R) – 19%

Dan Malloy (D) – 58%
Ned Lamont (D) – 42%

Connecticut Senate Primary

Linda McMahon (R) – 49%
Rob Simmons (R) – 28%
Peter Schiff (R) – 23%

Larry Sabato told Slate.com that this is about average. “Usually there’s one Senate seat lost, we’re at two; about five House seats, we’re at four.” There are 535 members of Congress, although only 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election, with the rest of the members retiring or not seeking re-election. The remaining primaries of 2010 offer few true opportunities for upsets. John McCain in Arizona is being challenged by J.D. Hayworth. Appointed Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado is also being challenged in what could prove to be an upset.

The six incumbent losses – again, only 2 percent of primaries with incumbents in them – can readily be explained. Party switchers rarely are welcomed by their new party. Rep. Mollohan faced ethics allegations and Congresswoman Kilpatrick was the mother of Detroit’s unpopular, legally-challenged mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Finally, Senator Bob Bennett of Utah and Congressman Bob Inglis were victims of a rabid Tea Party movement that is seeking to purify the Republican Party.

The point is that the environment, while certainly not preferable for incumbents in a year where unemployment is near double digits, is not nearly as bad as the media is making it out to be. These cases show that scandal, disloyalty and “moderation” (although Bennett and Inglis both had conservative ratings of over 90%) are weaknesses, not incumbency. If anything, incumbency is a strength (politically speaking). This is no different than any other year as the average retention rate in the House is 93.3 percent and 81.6 percent in the Senate. If you are an incumbent, you should like your odds.

The judge’s decision mirrored arguments that I outlined in March, arguing that the equal protection clause of the Constitution guaranteed these rights. The law was challenged under the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses of the 14th Amendment. Judge Walker writes that: “Each challenge is independently meritorious, as Proposition 8 both unconstitutionally burdens the exercise of the fundamental right to marry and creates an irrational classification on the basis of sexual orientation.”

The fundamental idea behind the 14^th Amendment is to protect against arbitrary uses of power. If the government (or in the case of Prop 8, a voter-passed initiative) takes away certain rights, “the government must show that the intrusion withstands strict scrutiny.” Judge Walker noted that the Supreme Court has held that marriage is considered a fundamental right that is protected by the Due Process Clause. Judge Walker points out that race restrictions were once placed on marriage and that the Supreme Court recognized that “despite their historical prevalence, [they] stood in stark contrast to the concepts of liberty and choice inherent in the right to marry.”

The next question before the court was the issue of Equal Protection under the Constitution. Judge Walker wrote that, “The court defers to legislative (or in this case, popular) judgment if there is at least a debatable question whether the underlying basis for the classification is rational. … The evidence at trial shows that gays and lesbians experience discrimination based on unfounded stereotypes and prejudices specific to sexual orientation.”

He notes the Lawrence case from 2003 where the Supreme Court rejected a Texas law banning sodomy: “Indeed, homosexual conduct and attraction are constitutionally protected and integral parts of what makes someone gay or lesbian.” Ultimately, Prop 8 is unconstitutional on Equal Protection grounds because it “targets gays and lesbians in a manner specific to their sexual orientation and, because of their relationship to one another, Proposition 8 targets them specifically due to sex.”

The legal history of gay marriage in California is quite lengthy. Voters approved a ban on gay marriage in 2000 with Proposition 22. San Francisco’s Mayor Gavin Newsom challenged this by issuing marriage licenses to gay couples. These licenses were invalidated by the California Supreme Court without issuing a ruling on whether the ban on gay marriage was constitutional or not. The city of San Francisco filed an action in state court to overturn California’s ban on gay marriage. The argument was that the ban was expressly against the constitution of California. The trial judge agreed, stating that it violated the state’s equal protection guarantees. An appellate court reversed the decision until the California Supreme Court ultimately decided in May 2008 that banning gay marriage was unconstitutional.

This is what led to Proposition 8. Petitioners sought to include in the state’s constitution a ban on gay marriage. They successfully got the requisite number of signatures for the initiative to be placed on the 2008 general election ballot. Ultimately, voters passed Prop 8 by a 52 to 48 margin on the same night that voters across the nation elected the first African-American president. Attempts to once again have the ban overturned failed. The California Supreme Court allowed the 18,000 marriages that occurred between the initial May 2008 ruling against the original ban and Prop 8’s passage modifying the California Constitution.

Now that a federal court has ruled on this issue, the next step will be to the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. It is known as one of the more liberal in the country and will in all likelihood uphold the ruling of Judge Walker. It is worth noting that he was appointed by a Republican president, George H. W. Bush. The trial court case lasted for roughly a year. It is unlikely that an appeal will conclude any sooner. The final step would be an appeal before the U.S. Supreme Court. Depending on how the Supreme Court rules, gay marriage will either become legal across the country or current bans will remain in place.

To establish an uniform rule of naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies, throughout the United States

Anyone familiar with the Constitution would know this and undoubtedly the politicians in Arizona knew it, but passed the bill anyway. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer was behind her expected Democratic challenger by 7-10 points in September of 2009. Today, she leads Attorney General Terry Goddard by double digits. The decision was a political one that is going to end up costing the citizens of Arizona millions of dollars (possibly much more) in attorney fees. It will also certainly mean the state will lose population and with it businesses/investment.

While the bill was not completely struck down, Judge Bolton issued a stay on provisions requiring immigrants to carry papers at all times and blocked a provision that would allow police officers to arrest immigrants that they “suspected” of being undocumented without a warrant. “Requiring Arizona law enforcement officials and agencies to determine the immigration status of every person who is arrested burdens lawfully present aliens because their liberty will be restricted while their status is checked,” Bolton wrote.

However, pro-immigrant groups did lose one key point. Judge Bolton preserved the ban on so-called “sanctuary cities”. These “sanctuary cities” (which I’m working on for a research project on immigration) are known for refusing to enforce federal immigration policy. They restrict their city employees, police officers, etc. from asking the immigration status of people that they come into contact with. That will no longer be the case, in Arizona at least. The next step will be the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals before a likely Supreme Court case.

Alabama
Incumbent: Richard Shelby (R)
Challenger(s): William Barnes (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Republican

At the heart of the Deep South, Alabama is a state with a heavy Republican tilt. Incumbent Senator Richard Shelby is a former conservative Democrat who saw the painting on the wall and switched parties in 1994. He has won comfortably ever since. In 2004, his margin of victory was nearly 40 percent. It will likely be at least that in his race against Democratic attorney William Barnes. No major Democrats have stepped up to the plate to take on Shelby, all but ensuring his victory. Most of the focus will instead be on the governor’s race.

Arkansas
Incumbent: Blanche Lincoln (D)
Challenger(s): Rep. John Boozman (Republican)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Blanche Lincoln had a difficult task winning re-election before she attracted a primary challenge from Arkansas’s popular Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Despite Arkansas being a last bastion of Democrats in the South, her approval ratings are anemic at best. Nearly 60 percent of voters in the state disapprove of the job that she is doing and her primary opponent forced her into a run-off which she barely won. Not bad for someone that only entered the race a couple months before the primary.

Republicans smell blood here. They are going to put enormous amounts of resources into this state in order to ensure a pick-up. Representative John Boozman has won the Republican nomination, despite a crowded field of eight candidates. The primary on May 18 and the runoff in June ensured that Lincoln would have to expend millions of dollars that she desperately needed for the general election. While polling showed that Halter was a better general election candidate, both of them would likely lose. Arkansas is one of the few states where John McCain outperformed George W. Bush.

Florida
Incumbent: George LeMieux (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Governor Charlie Crist (Independent), Marco Rubio (Republican), Rep. Kendrick Meek and Billionaire Jeff Greene (Democrats)
Prediction: Leaning Independent

One of the most interesting races of the cycle has to be Florida. The sitting Republican Senator, Mel Martinez, abruptly retired in 2009. This left a Senate seat open that the GOP would have to defend in a state that Barack Obama won in 2008. National Republicans netted a recruiting coup by having popular Governor Charlie Crist enter the race. Crist appointed his former campaign manager to fill the seat for the remainder of the term.

Nearly everyone expected Crist to win this race easily. As a result, Democrats only managed to recruit a second tier candidate who lacked name recognition across the state. Little did Crist or national Republicans know that conservative activists would have none of it. You see, Charlie Crist is a moderate Republican that embraced President Obama (literally) and his stimulation package in February 2009.

This infuriated Republicans in the state and ensured that a far right challenge would occur in the primary. The former Speaker of the Florida House, Marco Rubio, entered the race and immediately blasted Crist as not being conservative enough. While polls throughout most of 2009 showed Crist with a comfortable lead, recent months had Rubio leading by as much as 20 percent or more. Ultimately, the humiliation of losing a primary ended Crist’s run as a Republican. He announced on April 29 that he would instead run as an independent.

With Crist as the nominee, Democrats had virtually no shot at winning this race. Now that it is a three-man race, Democrats have two routes to claiming victory: Crist could split the Republican vote with Marco Rubio enough to where Rep. Meek could win a bare plurality of the vote. The second scenario for Democrats to “win” this seat is through a Crist victory whereby he would caucus with Democrats in the Senate. He has not ruled that out and it certainly makes more sense now that national Republicans have all but disowned him. Crist remains heavily popular in the state, with an approval hovering in the mid-50s. It is fairly reasonable to see Crist winning a three-way race (some polls have indicated he would), although not having a party infrastructure behind him will not make the job easy. For now, Crist is the favorite to win this seat, likely helping the Democrats in the process.

Georgia
Incumbent: Johnny Isakson (R)
Challenger(s): Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Like its nearby neighbors of Alabama and South Carolina, Georgia has become a reliably Republican state. In a year that is expected to be moderately good for the GOP, it goes without saying that these ruby red states will likely stay in the hands of the party in power. The only real concern Republicans might have is a potential vacancy. Isakson has been in and out of the hospital recently and is 65 years old. Despite Barack Obama doing well in this state (he only lost by 5 percent), it seems unlikely that Democrats will manage to pull off an upset in a year where they are struggling nationwide.

Kentucky
Incumbent: Jim Bunning (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Attorney General Jack Conway (Democrat) and Dr. Rand Paul (Republican)
Prediction: Toss-Up

The May 18 primary had both parties pick their nominees. Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo barely lost to retiring Senator Jim Bunning (a Republican) in 2004. He gave it another go this time around, but lost to the much younger and more telegenic Jack Conway. Polls showed Jack Conway as the stronger of the two Democrats in the race, while Trey Grayson would gave Republicans their best shot. Grayson was the Republican Party establishment favorite, a protégé of Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but he lost to Rand Paul in a blow-out. Following his victory, Rand Paul suggested that he would have voted against the Civil Rights Act, saying that business owners should have the right to deny service to customers even if it is based on race. Despite the Republican leaning of the state, Democrats can win statewide in Kentucky and Conway is a strong candidate.

Louisiana
Incumbent: David Vitter (R)
Challenger(s): Rep. Charlie Melancon (Democrat)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Incumbent Republican David Vitter has a bit of a female problem. He famously was caught on the D.C. Madam’s list back in 2007 and was an apparently frequent customer. Conservative Democrat Charlie Melancon is running against Vitter, but has yet to prove to be a credible threat. Three years is an eternity in politics, so voters might have already forgotten about his transgressions. It doesn’t help Melancon that the state has seen a shift towards Republicans since Hurricane Katrina. The African American base that helped make this Southern state competitive has largely been displaced.

North Carolina
Incumbent: Richard Burr (R)
Challenger(s): Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (Democrat)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Democrats Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall faced each other in a June runoff election. Neither of them received the 40 percent necessary in order to avoid a runoff. Marshall won 36 percent of the vote in the May 4 primary to Cunningham’s 27 percent. Marshall won the runoff and will be the Democratic nominee in the fall. The fact that Democrats did not have a nominee before June is not good news as it meant period to raise money and frame the debate against incumbent Republican Richard Burr. The good news for the Democrats is that Burr is not a popular incumbent, with an approval rating well below 50 percent. It also doesn’t hurt that Burr voted against extending unemployment benefits in a state that has a nearly 10 percent unemployment rate.

South Carolina
Incumbent: Jim DeMint (R)
Challenger(s): Alvin Greene (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Alvin Greene surprised everyone with his victory in the South Carolina primary. No one had heard of him. In fact, he had been discharged from the military involuntarily (although honorably), faced legal troubles last year and is currently unemployed. He had only $114 in his campaign account. He did not buy any television ads, held no formal events and did not even have a campaign website. Democrats in the state quickly assumed that the Republican establishment had planted a fake candidate in the field to protect firebrand conservative Jim DeMint from a serious challenge. Whatever the case, DeMint is safe to continue his ways as a mouthpiece for some of the most conservative voices in America. This seat will stay in Republican hands.

West Virginia
Incumbent: Carte Goodwin (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Joe Manchin (Democrat)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

This is a seat that literally was not on anyone’s radar until just weeks ago. Why? It was not scheduled to take place until 2012. The death of Senator Robert Byrd led to the state legislature, at the behest of Governor Joe Manchin, to pass a law that allowed for a special election to occur this November. Governor Manchin, a popular Democrat in an increasingly Republican state during presidential elections, did not want to appoint himself to the seat as it could hurt his reputation ahead of the 2012 election. Instead, he appointed an aide to fill the seat in a similar way that Charlie Crist did in Florida so that he could run in the November special election. Interestingly, the oldest member in the history of the Senate (Byrd) is being replaced by the youngest (Goodwin) at the age of 36. Representative Shelley Moore Capito was seen as the Republican Party’s best chance at winning this seat. She decided to decline the opportunity. With Manchin’s approval rating at 80 percent, this is a safe seat for the Democrats and one that they will not likely need to spend much time on.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen. One of those races is in Iowa where Senator Chuck Grassley could face one of his toughest re-election battles since he was first elected in 1980.

As you may recall, Grassley was among a handful of Republicans willing to compromise with Democrats on the health care bill. It was nothing more than a stalling tactic. Grassley went back home telling crowds in Iowa that the bill was going to result in death panels, at the same time he was in negotiations with Democrats. Not exactly an act of goodwill.

Grassley’s antics are almost certainly going to become campaign fodder for his Democratic opponent Roxanne Conlin. You can count on Conlin pounding Grassley for standing with insurance companies and demanding to know whether Grassley would vote to repeal the bill. The latest polling puts Grassley under 50 percent and Conlin within single digits. That’s a significant drop from a few months ago when his lead was over 20 points greater.

I’m moving this race into “Lean Republican” from “Likely Republican”. It may soon qualify for “Toss-Up” status if Grassley continues to bleed support.

The other two races that are changing are Illinois and Wisconsin. Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias is slightly trailing Republican Congressman Mark Kirk in this open Senate seat race according to recent polls. This race is now a “Toss-Up” thanks to the failing of Giannoulias’s family bank. If the election were held today, Giannoulias would lose this race. Thankfully for him and the Democrats in Illinois, voters have a short memory span and the election is not for another six months. That gives him plenty of time to remind voters that Mark Kirk voted against health care and has boasted that he would like to see Barack Obama be a one-term president. It also didn’t help that Mark Kirk was caught lying about his military record on multiple occasions, including on the House floor.

Finally, there is Wisconsin, where incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold avoided a potentially bloody general election against former Wisconsin governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson. Governor Thompson is about the only Republican with a legitimate shot of knocking off Feingold, so I am moving this race into the “Likely Democratic” column. Below is a map of both the Southern and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first two election projection updates:

Map

U.S. District Judge Joseph Tauro wrote that “Congress undertook this classification for the one purpose that lies entirely outside of legislative bounds, to disadvantage a group of which it disapproves. And such a classification the Constitution clearly will not permit.” The judge stated that the act violates the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution.

The ruling only applies to Massachusetts – where it was filed. If the Justice Department decides to appeal the ruling, which appears to be undetermined at this point, it could have a much broader affect. If uphold upon appeal, the ruling would then cover the entire 1st Circuit, including Rhode Island, Maine and New Hampshire. The final appeal would go to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Anti-gay marriage activists immediately lashed out at the judge. Andrea Lafferty, executive director of the Traditional Values Coalition, called Tauro’s ruling “judicial activism” and said Tauro was a “rogue judge.” She went so far as to say that Massachusetts was the “lowest common denominator [of] states” for which the nation could base its legal standards on. Of course, that is up to higher courts to decide, who have typically sided with pro-gay marriage advocates.