Kyle Bell » Election Projection

Rick Santorum’s Path to the Nomination

Kyle — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 07:07:54 +0000

Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum accomplished two important wins in the Deep South on Tuesday – one in Alabama and the other in Mississippi – that denied front-runner Mitt Romney the opportunity to finish up the nasty GOP primary fight. While Romney’s aides publicly state that it would take an “act of God” for Santorum to win the nomination, it is actually more plausible than they would have you believe.

With Newt Gingrich’s second place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi – states that he recently said that he must win – his campaign’s path forward it unclear at best. Indeed it would take an act of God for Gingrich to become the Republican nominee. The same cannot be said of Santorum, though, who despite trailing Romney by roughly 200 delegates could quickly catch up to him at the convention. Consider this scenario:

The Republicans enter their convention in Tampa without a candidate holding a clear majority of delegates – a requirement for winning the nomination. The first round of ballots is indecisive. After this point delegates bound to Romney or any other candidate could vote for whomever they please.

Now imagine that Gingrich drops out of the race. Where do his delegates go? Will these conservative, largely Southern delegates go with a former moderate governor from Massachusetts? Highly doubtful, unless Gingrich is enticed by another prize: a slot on the ticket.

This is where Santorum can find a path without entering the convention with a majority of delegates. He wins Gingrich’s endorsement early on, ensuring that his supporters will carry Santorum to victory in places like Texas. Then Santorum cuts a deal with Gingrich giving him a VP slot in exchange for his hundred plus delegates. Adding the delegates won so far by Gingrich and Santorum puts him within striking distance of Romney. Hardly an act of God.

Olympia Snowe Retiring from Senate, Likely Handing Dems Key Seat

Kyle — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 04:11:36 +0000

Senator Olympia Snowe unexpectedly announced on Tuesday that she is retiring from the Senate. Along with her colleague Susan Collins, the two are known as the “Maine moderates” and have both consistently won re-election as Republicans in a Democratic state. She cited increased partisanship as her main reason for retiring: “I do not realistically expect the partisanship of recent years in the Senate to change over the short term. So at this stage of my tenure in public service, I have concluded that I am not prepared to commit myself to an additional six years in the Senate.”

President Obama commended Senator Snowe for her service. “For nearly four decades, Olympia Snowe has served the people of the great state of Maine. Elected to the state House in 1973, Olympia went on to be the first woman in American history to serve in both houses of a state legislature and both houses of Congress. From her unwavering support for our troops, to her efforts to reform Wall Street, to fighting for Maine’s small businesses, Senator Snowe’s career demonstrates how much can be accomplished when leaders from both parties come together to do the right thing for the American people.”

Snowe is one of the few Republicans that have been willing to cross the aisle and join Democrats on legislation during the Obama years. She supported the stimulus package as well as the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. She joined her Republican cohorts in killing the DREAM Act, as well as voting against health care reform, despite indicating that she would vote for it if it didn’t have a public option in the bill – which eventually was removed.

The senator was a decided favorite for re-election, especially in the general election, although Tea Party challengers were biting at her heels in the primary. With Snowe’s departure this seat now has to be considered favored for the Democratic candidate. However, only two weeks are left until the filing deadline for both parties. We’ll have to see who throws their hat into the ring. That being said, the Democrats were largely on defense so far this cycle in places like Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana. Having Maine as a new pick-up, as well as Massachusetts with Scott Brown, makes it much more likely that Democrats will hold onto the Senate.

How did our projections hold up?

Kyle — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 21:23:05 +0000

Looking back at last night’s election results and comparing them to the projections that were made on this site, we had a perfect score. The races that we had rated as “Toss-ups” split 4-2 for the Republicans, but all of the “Leans Democrat” seats stayed in Democratic hands (the only caveat is that Washington state still has votes yet to be counted). Let’s take a look at the projections from October 27:

The “Toss-up” states that I had listed were Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. States that “Lean Democrat” included California, Washington and West Virginia. Now let’s look at the actual results on Election Day:

The individual results for the “Toss-up” states looked like this, organized by how close the final result was:

Colorado

Michael Bennet (D) – 47.7%
Ken Buck (R) – 46.8%

Pennsylvania

Pat Toomey (R) – 51%
Joe Sestak (D) – 49%

Illinois

Mark Kirk (R) – 48.3%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) – 46.2%

Wisconsin

Ron Johnson (R) – 51.9%
Russ Feingold (D) – 47.1%

Nevada

Harry Reid (D) – 50.2%
Sharron Angle (R) – 44.6%

Alaska

Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) – 41%
Joe Miller (R) – 34.2%

Analysis:

We can look at these results and conclude a few things. First, the conventional wisdom that Harry Reid was dead in Nevada was wrong. Not only did he win, he got over 50 percent of the vote. In Pennsylvania, many pundits had assumed that Pat Toomey was well ahead of Joe Sestak. The final results showed a tight 2 point race. Wisconsin, which some people criticized me for listing as a “Toss-up”, turned out to be closer than both Nevada and West Virginia. Lastly, incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski went against the odds to win a write-in vote over the Republican nominee, Joe Miller, who defeated her in the primary just a couple months ago. In each of the “Toss-up” calls that were made, the final results were anywhere between 0.9 – 6.8%. None of the races that were listed as either “Leans Democrat” or “Leans Republican” switched parties.

Election Projection 2010: October 27 Senate Update

Kyle — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 05:17:01 +0000

We are now in the final stretch of the midterm elections. We have looked at every Senate race in the country. Between now and Election Day we are going to make some revisions as needed.

Adjustments

Connecticut – Democrat Richard Blumenthal has opened a double-digit lead over Republican Linda McMahon. The multi-millionaire McMahon, who has put her own fortune into the race, is seeing firsthand how difficult it is for conservative Republicans to win in the Northeast. Even more striking is that it is a strong year for Republicans in other parts of the country. Perhaps the one exception in this region is New Hampshire, where Republicans may pick up as many as two House seats and retain control of retiring Republican Judd Gregg’s Senate seat. At any rate, Connecticut is moving from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat.

Illinois – This is a race that should not have happened. Had it not been for the Rod Blagojevich deciding to try to sell a Senate seat (which resulted in a conviction of lying to the FBI), President Obama’s former seat would likely be held by a respected Congressperson like Jan Schakowsky or Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Instead, Democrats went through a messy ordeal where Blagojevich appointed sitting Senator Roland Burris, who decided not to run for the seat in his own right when he saw that he could neither raise the funds to mount a campaign nor win even if he had the fortune of Meg Whitman.

Democrats nominated the state’s Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, a young Obama protégé. Unfortunately for the party, he carried baggage from a family bank that went into federal receivership after it suffered from the same mortgage crisis that had gripped other banks nationwide. His Republican opponent, Congressman Mark Kirk, has a habit of lying about his military record and teaching experience, as well as flip-flopping positions. Needless to say, Giannoulias should be far ahead in the polls, but the fact that it is a Republican year and his family bank problems are dragging him down. It will be one of the closest in the country and could be decided by the support of third party candidates. The Green Party candidate could hand this seat to Mark Kirk and the Republicans. This race is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-up.

Kentucky – Democrats had hoped that Kentucky would be one of the few potential Republican seats that they could carry. Their candidate, Attorney General Jack Conway, is the Southern Democrat that can win statewide elections. Republican opponent Rand Paul is a quirky conservative that is too far right for even many Kentuckians. The race was close and some polls even had Conway ahead. Then the Conway campaign released an ad questioning Paul’s religion, saying that in college he worshiped “Aqua Buddha”, a reference to a CQ article alleging Paul forcibly told a woman in college to bow down and worship a bong that they smoked from. The Paul campaign immediately attacked the ad and the candidate himself refused to shake the hand of Conway at a debate. If the latest polls are any indication, the ad seems to have backfired, even if it is true. This race is moving from Toss-up to Leans Republican.



Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered with the above mentioned revisions:



Election Projection 2010: Northeast Senate Seats
Kyle — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 04:36:33 +0000
We’re now just two weeks away from the midterm elections. Today, we’re going to have a look at the Northeast:
Connecticut

Incumbent: Chris Dodd (D) – Retiring

Challenger(s): Linda McMahon (R), Richard Blumenthal (D)

Prediction: Leans Democrat
Linda McMahon joins several other wealthy Republican businesswomen that have run for office this year (California’s Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are the other two). Each of them appears likely to lose in Democratically-inclined states. McMahon made her wealth as an executive for WWE (yes, that McMahon). Blumenthal has made a point that the company’s health record is not all that great. In fact, it’s quite poor. Several wrestlers died either while McMahon was the leader of the WWE or shortly after leaving the company. Blumenthal has problems of his own, taking credit for serving in Vietnam, when in fact, he was only in the military at the time, but not stationed in Vietnam. Still, even though both candidates have character flaws, Connecticut is a Democratic state and will likely elect Blumenthal. Polls show him leading anywhere from five points to double digits. 
Delaware

Incumbent: Ted Kaufman (D) – Retiring

Challenger(s): Christine O’Donnell (R), Chris Coons (D)

Prediction: Likely Democrat
Perhaps no Senate race has garnered more media coverage than Delaware. In a normal year, it wouldn’t get any attention at all. That was until political neophyte and Tea Party darling Christine O’Donnell knocked off Congressman and former governor Mike Castle, a moderate, to win the Republican Party’s primary. Castle was an overwhelming favorite to win the general election and give the Republicans a pick-up. Now the odds have flipped. Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold on to the former seat of Vice President Joe Biden. If Republicans manage to win 9 Senate seats this year, O’Donnell and the Tea Party will be vilified for handing the Senate to the Democrats.
Maryland

Incumbent: Barbara Mikulski (D)

Challenger(s): Eric Wargotz (R)

Prediction: Likely Democrat
Not a whole lot to say about Maryland’s Senate race. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Mikulski will easily get re-elected over Republican challenger Eric Wargotz. The only question is by how much. The real race to watch in Maryland is for governor, where incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley finds himself in a rematch with the man whom he defeated in 2006, former governor Bob Ehrlich.
New Hampshire

Incumbent: Judd Gregg (R) – Retiring

Challenger(s): Kelly Ayotte (R), Paul Hodes (D)

Prediction: Leans Republican
New Hampshire was a state that was trending towards the Democrats. While George W. Bush won the state in 2000, John Kerry picked it up in 2004, and Barack Obama improved upon that in 2008. Democrats won both House seats and the governor’s mansion in 2006 and a Senate seat in 2008, yet polling shows that Republicans are likely to pick up at least one (possibly both) of the state’s House seats and hold on to their remaining Senate seat.  Paul Hodes, the Democratic Congressman running for the Senate, is trailing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte by anywhere from 5 to 15 points. Hodes saw a mini-surge in his standing when former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed Ayotte, but it does not appear to have helped him enough.
New York (A)

Incumbent: Chuck Schumer (D)

Challenger(s): Jay Townsend (R)

Prediction: Likely Democrat
New York is having two Senate races this year: one is the seat held by Chuck Schumer and the other is the former seat of Hillary Clinton, now held by Kirsten Gillibrand. Both Democrats are expected to win quite easily. Schumer has over $24 million in the bank and his Republican opponent has not even raised $100,000. If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid goes down in November, Schumer has shown interest for his job and would likely face off against Illinois Senator Dick Durbin.
New York (B)

Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Challenger(s): Joseph DioGuardi (R)

Prediction: Likely Democrat
Kirsten Gillibrand is an upstate New York politician and the incumbent Senator of her seat. She was appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat after she resigned to become Secretary of State. Gillibrand is conservative by New York standards, but has moved to the left since joining the Upper Chamber. As a former member of the House, she road the Democratic wave of 2006 to victory. While Gillibrand is the favorite over former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi, this will be a closer race than Schumer’s. Nonetheless, national Republicans are not putting any money into the race.
Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Arlen Specter (D) – Retiring

Challenger(s): Pat Toomey (R), Joe Sestak (D)

Prediction: Toss-up
There have been many odd races across the country so far this year. Pennsylvania was one of the first. Senator Arlen Specter, at the time a Republican, switched parties after he learned that he would face a challenge from far-right conservative Pat Toomey, a former congressman that challenged Specter in 2004. Toomey lost that race, but not by much, and was favored to beat Specter the second time. Specter switched parties and ran as a Democrat, hoping that no one would notice his voting record.  While Specter voted reliably with the Democrats following his switch, Democratic voters had a choice of electing a real Democrat when Joe Sestak jumped into the race. Sestak had run in 2006 and won a Philadelphia area district. He was the underdog throughout most of the race, but brilliantly used ads showing Specter talking about he switched parties to be re-elected. Now Sestak finds himself in the underdog position yet again. However, polls have shown a tightening of the race with a couple even showing Sestak in the lead. Sestak also has a money advantage over Toomey in these final weeks.
Adjustments
Since our last update we have seen several changes in the Senate outlook, each of them at the expense of Democrats. Some states, such as Wisconsin, have moved from Leans Democrat to Toss-up. West Virginia, which was rated as Likely Democrat, is now Leans Democrat. Nevada is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; Florida Toss-Up to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Ohio from Toss-Up to Likely Republican; Arizona from Leans Republican to Likely Republican; Colorado from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; and Missouri from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. We’ll detail a few of these changes below:
Colorado – Appointed Senator Michael Bennet has struggled to fend off a challenge from Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. The outspoken Buck has said that he opposes abortion in all cases, including rape and incest. He has also said that being gay is a choice, not something that you are born with. Candidates like this would not normally win in a state like Colorado, but with a bad economy, voters are desperate.
Florida – Democrat Kendrick Meek and Governor Charlie Crist, a former Republican turned independent, have been nuking each other over the airwaves. Republican Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio has benefitted from this sniping and will probably squeak by with less than 50 percent of the vote. It isn’t possible for a divided left to win in a swing state like Florida. All Rubio needs to do is carry the Republican vote heavily and he wins.
Ohio – Ohio is a state that has simply gone out of reach for Democrats. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher is the Democratic candidate and Rob Portman the Republican, a former Congressman and Budget Director in the Bush administration. Fisher is a poor campaigner and fundraiser, while Portman has benefitted from the Bush donor list. National Democrats have pulled the plug on their financial support of Fisher, putting it in states where they think they can win (like Colorado and nearby Pennsylvania). On the other hand, Democratic hopes have improved in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Incumbent governor Ted Strickland has at least a 50/50 chance of winning re-election over Republican John Kasich.
Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:
Map




Democrats Gain Momentum Going into November
Kyle — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 02:29:08 +0000
With a little under one month to go before Election Day 2010, the fight for Congress is far from over. While Republicans had gained a sizable lead during the summer months, polling in the last few weeks has shown a tightening of the race. Several polls have even shown a Democratic lead on the generic Congressional ballot. This is a major change from August when Republicans had a double digit lead in some polls.
The first thing that people should know about polls is that they are not a predictor of what will happen in the future. A poll taken in August is worthless (or certainly in May). Why is that? Most people do not begin to pay attention to races until after Labor Day, the unofficial kickoff to the election season. Another reason is that undecided voters tend to make up their minds relatively close to Election Day.
Let’s take a look at where we stand right now on the generic ballot for Congress:

Republicans peaked in late August/early September and have been coming down ever since. Their one point lead is relatively meaningless when undecided voters overwhelmingly voted for Obama in 2008, indicating that their preference leans towards the Democrats. Once you remove Rasmussen from the poll average (a polling firm that has skewed heavily towards the GOP this cycle) and Zogby (which conducts its polls online and has a poor track record), we find that Democrats have actually surged into a one point advantage over the Republicans:

This is a significant change from just a few weeks ago. The trend lines are clear no matter whether you choose to include Republican-leaning Rasmussen or not. Democrats are climbing fast and Republicans are diving. Several explanations can be made as to why this is happening, but certainly the intensification of a fall campaign has a lot to do with it. Democrats, who were largely unmotivated throughout most of this year, appear to be getting out of their funk. A lot of this undoubtedly has to do with alarming victories by far-right Tea Party candidates across the country.
Also, while some in the media have declared that President Obama is a liability for Democrats, his approval rating stands in the mid to high 40s. When Republicans lost control of the House and Senate in 2006, President Bush’s approval rating stood in the low 30s. Democrats will undoubtedly still lose some seats. History tells us that the president’s party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. Whether it will be a blowout or not appears to be leaning in favor of the Democrats holding both chambers of Congress – if current trends continue and Democratic voters show up to the polls.



Election Projection Update Delayed
Kyle — Mon, 20 Sep 2010 22:35:54 +0000
Apologies to readers expecting an election projection update last week. Unfortunately, while it was largely finished, my laptop was stolen from my house on Friday morning. All of the information that I had on it is now lost and will require a fresh start. It also means that my access to a computer is limited. Hopefully updates will resume shortly, but until I can purchase a new laptop, they will likely be intermittent. It’s horrible timing with just a little over a month until election day.



Election Projection 2010: West Coast Senate Seats
Kyle — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 05:26:57 +0000
We’re getting closer to the midterm elections. As such, I will be posting my projections more frequently. Today, we’re going to have a look at the West Coast:
Alaska

Incumbent: Lisa Murkowski (R) – Defeated

Challenger(s): Joe Miller (R), Scott McAdams (D)

Prediction: Toss-Up
What a difference a few weeks make. Not even two weeks ago, Lisa Murkowski was ahead by double digits in the polls and was expected to cruise towards re-election. That ended after a week of ballot counting in which Sarah Palin-backed Tea Party candidate Joe Miller narrowly defeated Murkowski by 1,100 votes. Miller is a far-right candidate that has stated he wants to eliminate Social Security, that President Obama is “bad for America”, and that he will refuse earmarks to Alaska. Traditionally, Alaska has enjoyed nearly two dollars back for every one dollar that they send to Washington. While it’s popular to talk about deficit reduction, most voters back home expect you to bring home the bacon, especially in small states like Alaska. If this race is going to be close, which I expect it will be, it will be solely because the Republicans nominated an extremist candidate. Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, like Joe Miller, has no statewide experience.
Arizona

Incumbent: John McCain (R)

Challenger(s): Rodney Glassman (D)

Prediction: Leans Republican
John McCain dispatched of former Representative J.D. Hayworth quite easily in Arizona’s GOP primary. With nearly 60 percent of the vote, McCain more or less ensured his re-election, even though he spent over $20 million to win the primary. The Democrats nominated a city councilman in Rodney Glassman. Whether this race becomes the least bit competitive will depend on if the national party decides to spend in Arizona, which seems unlikely given the number of other competitive races across the country. Still, McCain’s image has been badly tarnished since the presidential campaign just two years ago. 
California

Incumbent: Barbara Boxer (D)

Challenger(s): Carly Fiorina (R)

Prediction: Leans Democrat
At least one thing is sure: two females will continue to represent California in the U.S. Senate. Barbara Boxer has a long streak of tough races and she survived in 2004, a rough year for Democrats. Her opponent, Carly Fiorina, is the former CEO of HP (she was terminated by the board of directors). While Fiorina brings a strong resume to the table, the fact that she is anti-abortion in a state that hasn’t elected a statewide anti-abortion candidate in decades does not bode well for her. On the plus side, she brings a lot of money to the table in a highly expensive state. If Meg Whitman can manage to buy the governor’s mansion with the $100+ million that she’s spent so far, Fiorina might manage to win this Senate seat. At this point, though, it’s still leaning towards Boxer.
Hawaii

Incumbent: Daniel K. Inouye (D)

Challenger(s): Cam Cavasso (R), Edward Pirkowski (R), John Roco (R)

Prediction: Likely Democrat
Not much to say for Hawaii’s Senate race other than it will probably have the nicest Election Day (weather-wise) of any of the races in the country. Daniel Inouye will win re-election easily.
Nevada

Incumbent: Harry Reid (D)

Challenger(s): Sharron Angle (R)

Prediction: Leans Democrat
Sharron Angle is the best thing that happened to the Democratic Party in Nevada. Her statements have ranged from crazy to downright bizarre (she claimed that the news media exists to report the news as she wants them to – this even confused the Fox News reporter conducting the interview). She called a bill that Congress passed to ensure that teachers and police officers were not laid off “laundered” money. She supports abolishing the Department of Education, privatizing Social Security and Medicare, and believes that the United States should withdrawal from the United Nations. Much like the other Tea Party candidates across the country, Angle is her own worst enemy. Even with an approval rating below 40 percent, Harry Reid just might manage to squeak by with the help of the Tea Party.
Oregon

Incumbent: Ron Wyden (D)

Challenger(s): Jim Huffman (R)

Prediction: Likely Democrat
Ron Wyden is a popular and reasonable senator that garners a lot of respect from both Republicans and Democrats. He will win re-election easily.
Washington

Incumbent: Patty Murray (D)

Challenger(s): Dino Rossi (R)

Prediction: Leans Democrat
Patty Murray was seen as a shoe-in not too long ago. Now that two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi is challenging her, it could be a close fight (he lost both races by small margins). President Obama won Washington with 57 percent of the vote and has been a fairly reliable state for Democrats for the past couple decades. In fact, a Republican hasn’t held Murray’s seat since 1986 and the state hasn’t voted for a Republican at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 rout of Walter Mondale. It could be relatively close, but Murray is still the favorite. If Republicans have any hope of taking back the Senate, which is extremely unlikely, they would have to knock down incumbents like Boxer and Murray. 
Adjustments
As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.
Arkansas – Conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln is badly trailing her Republican challenger Congressman John Boozman. While it was already expected that she would lose, the race is being moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Polling shows Lincoln not just trailing by double digits, but nearly 30 points. It’s no longer a question of “if” Senator Lincoln loses, but instead “how much” she loses by.
Florida – Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek disposed of billionaire challenger (and former Republican) Jeff Greene 57 to 31 percent in the primary. Despite this, he is only garnering around 15 percent in the polls. Independent Charlie Crist’s main problem is not that he is an incumbent governor (he’s actually quite popular), but that he is relying on winning a sizable portion of Democrats, independents and Republicans. It’s not an easy task, but he has a far better shot of doing it than Meek, who has never even faced a challenger since he was elected to Congress in 2002. Polling has shown a tightening of the race, essentially a tie between Crist and conservative Republican Marco Rubio. This race is moving from Leans Democrat (assuming Crist was to caucus with the Democrats) to Toss-Up.
Wisconsin – Russ Feingold was caught off guard when public polling showed a close race against a no-name challenger. Interestingly, shortly after the Gulf oil spill disaster, the Republican candidate suggested that he would support oil exploration in Lake Michigan. Feingold was quick to criticize him with a TV ad highlighting his position on drilling in one of Wisconsin’s biggest tourist attractions. While Feingold will likely ultimately succeed in winning re-election, current polling suggests that we should move the race from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat.
Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:
Map




Election Projection 2010: Great Plains/Mountain West Senate Seats
Kyle — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 05:24:33 +0000
We’re getting closer to the midterm elections. As such, I will be posting my projections more frequently. The last projections that I published looked at races in the Midwest and South. Now we’re going to have a look at the Great Plains/Mountain West:
Colorado

Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D)

Challenger(s): Ken Buck (R)

Prediction: Leans Democrat
Colorado is likely to be the only real competitive race in this entire region. That said, Democrats have a slight advantage with the defeat of the party’s pick, Jane Norton, to Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. Like other Tea Party candidates across the country, Buck is a weaker candidate in the general election and could help Democrats hold seats that were otherwise vulnerable. Senator Michael Bennet, who had never held elected office before, was appointed after President Obama nominated Ken Salazar to the Department of the Interior.
Idaho

Incumbent: Mike Crapo (R)

Challenger(s): Tom Sullivan (D)

Prediction: Likely Republican
The last time Mike Crapo was up for re-election, in 2004, he won 99 percent of the vote. The other 1 percent went to write-in candidates. No Democrat challenged him that year. While Crapo has a challenger this year from Democrat Tom Sullivan, polls have shown the incumbent with a 40 point lead. This seat is safe for the GOP barring a Larry Craig-like controversy. 
Kansas

Incumbent: Sam Brownback (R) – Retiring

Challenger(s): Rep. Jerry Moran (R), Lisa Johnston (D)

Prediction: Likely Republican
Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in order to seek the governor’s mansion in Kansas. His likely replacement is Representative Jerry Moran, who defeated Representative Todd Tiahrt. Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt and was featured in some of his campaign ads, yet it was not enough. No Democrat has held a Senate seat in Kansas since the 1930s.
North Dakota

Incumbent: Byron Dorgan (D) – Retiring

Challenger(s): Governor John Hoeven (R), Tracy Potter (D)

Prediction: Likely Republican
One of the early signs that Democrats were in trouble came when Senator Byron Dorgan, a moderate from North Dakota, decided to retire instead of face a tough re-election battle to the state’s popular Republican governor. With Dorgan out of the race, Republicans are all but assured of picking up the seat. Democrats had managed to hold the two North Dakota Senate seats since 1987 and at least one of the seats since 1960.
Oklahoma

Incumbent: Tom Coburn (R)

Challenger(s): Jim Rogers (D)

Prediction: Leans Republican
Tom Coburn was elected to Congress as 1994’s “Republican Revolution”. He moved to the Upper Chamber in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote. Coburn’s seat has been held by Republicans since 1968. The last time a Democrat held a Senate seat in Oklahoma was in 1994, before James Inhofe assumed it from retiring Senator David Boren. Expect Coburn to crush his Democratic competition in November.
South Dakota

Incumbent: John Thune (R)

Challenger(s): No Challenger

Prediction: Likely Republican
There is no uncertainty around South Dakota’s Senate seat in 2010. John Thune will cruise to re-election as no Democrats have filed to challenge him. Thune, a possible candidate for president in 2012 or 2016, defeated Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a slim margin: 51-49%. The only person that could have even made this race competitive would have been Daschle, but seeing as he had tax woes and this election cycle seems to be favoring Republicans, even he would have had a difficult time unseating Thune.
Utah

Incumbent: Bob Bennett (R) – Defeated in Primary

Challenger(s): Mike Lee (R), Sam Granato (D)

Prediction: Likely Republican
You can hardly get more Republican than Utah. The real race in this state was not the upcoming general election but instead the Republican primary. Conservatives ousted sitting Senator Bob Bennett, a mainstream conservative who voted with the party over 90 percent of the time. Conservative voting records only go so far for the Tea Party crowd when you vote for bank bailouts as Bennett did in 2008.
Adjustments
As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.
North Carolina is one of those states. Senator Richard Burr has suffered from poor approval ratings throughout his first term. Nearly every current poll has him under 50 percent support, some as low as 39%. While he continues to lead his Democratic opponent, Elaine Marshall, the gap between them is fast dwindling. This race is being changed from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up”. As we previously noted, Senator Burr voted against an extension of unemployment benefits in a state that has nearly double digit unemployment. This is not likely to play well with voters in North Carolina.
Illinois is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”. Alexi Giannoulias has taken a slight lead in the polls. Republican Mark Kirk had led or tied Giannoulias in the polls until revelations that he exaggerated his military service emerged. Kirk claimed that he received a military award that he did not. Kirk also claimed that he was a nursery school teacher. However, a member of the school said that, “he was never, ever considered a teacher,” but instead played with the children. Given that this is Obama’s adopted home state and the Democratic tilt of Illinois, Giannoulias should manage to win, although it will be somewhat close.
Below is a map of the Southern, Great Plains, Mountain West and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first three election projection updates:
Map




Is 2010 an anti-incumbent year? Not quite.
Kyle — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 01:17:48 +0000
For all of the talk in the media about how bad of an “anti-incumbent year” 2010 is turning out to be, only six members of Congress have so far been swept from power. Two of them – Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith – were party switchers that had never won a primary in the party that they switched to. Of the 282 elections so far this year with federal incumbents, only 2 percent have lost.
Larry Sabato told Slate.com that this is about average. “Usually there’s one Senate seat lost, we’re at two; about five House  seats, we’re at four.” There are 535 members of Congress, although only 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election, with the rest of the members retiring or not seeking re-election. The remaining primaries of 2010 offer few true opportunities for upsets. John McCain in Arizona is being challenged by J.D. Hayworth. Appointed Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado is also being challenged in what could prove to be an upset.
The six incumbent losses – again, only 2 percent of primaries with incumbents in them – can readily be explained. Party switchers rarely are welcomed by their new party. Rep. Mollohan faced ethics allegations and Congresswoman Kilpatrick was the mother of Detroit’s unpopular, legally-challenged mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Finally, Senator Bob Bennett of Utah and Congressman Bob Inglis were victims of a rabid Tea Party movement that is seeking to purify the Republican Party.
The point is that the environment, while certainly not preferable for  incumbents in a year where unemployment is near double digits, is not  nearly as bad as the media is making it out to be. These cases show that scandal, disloyalty and “moderation” (although Bennett and Inglis both had conservative ratings of over 90%) are weaknesses, not incumbency. If anything, incumbency is a strength (politically speaking). This is no different than any other year as the average retention rate in the House is 93.3 percent and 81.6 percent in the Senate. If you are an incumbent, you should like your odds.