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Archive for the ‘Election Projection’ Category

Election Prediction 2012: President, Senate and House

Posted on: November 5th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

The 2012 election cycle has been a long and costly battle against two very different ideologies. By this time tomorrow night we may very well know who the next president will be until January 2017. The most likely outcome based on polling, trends and historical state allegiances portends well for President Obama, Senate Democrats and House Republicans.

President

As I posted on Saturday, President Obama is a heavy favorite to win the Electoral College and thus the presidency. Nothing has changed in the two days since then to disrupt the status quo of the race. In fact, the numbers that have come in since then reinforce a narrow win for the incumbent. Based on the polling average from Pollster.com and on the trends of the race, I predict President Obama to be a 2-3 point favorite in the popular vote and a 332 to 206 favorite in the Electoral College.

For a deeper explanation of where these projections come from I would suggest reading Saturday’s post. The bottom line is that President Obama has a solid base of support in Democratic-leaning states along with consistent leads in a number of swing states (most notably Ohio). Obama has momentum in Florida and Colorado that should be enough to put him over the top in those states on Tuesday night. The map is below:

Senate

After losing six Senate seats in the 2010 election, Democrats looked likely to repeat a decline in their ranks in 2012. It was almost universally accepted that Democrats would lose control of the Senate, given the grim map where they had to defend 23 seats to only 10 for the GOP. A number of incumbent Democratic senators decided to retire in red states, making the situation that much worse for Democrats.

Against all odds, Democrats look poised to actually gain seats after this year’s election. A number of strategic blunders on the part of Republican primary voters, gaffes by candidates and surprisingly strong recruitment by the Democrats has led to a situation where I am predicting a net gain of 2 seats from 53 to 55.

Nothing underlines the Republican Party’s collapse in this year’s Senate races more than Todd Akin, who suggested that the female body had a way to “shut down” an unwanted pregnancy that resulted from rape and thus abortion in such cases was unnecessary. National Republicans pressured Akin to get out of the race but he stayed in and will likely cost their party a seat that they were otherwise likely to pick up from Senator Claire McCaskill. McCaskill is a first-term senator with middling approval ratings who won in the wave election of 2006 with less than 50% of the vote.

Republicans threw away another senate seat when they knocked off Indiana’s long-time senator, Dick Lugar, in a Republican primary. It is still not clear what exactly Lugar did to invoke the wrath of Tea Party conservatives – Lugar remains a stalwart conservative – but their choice of Richard Mourdock has not gone over well in Indiana. Mourdock’s Akin-like comment that God “intends” for pregnancy to occur from rape essentially guaranteed that Joe Donnelly would pick up the seat for Democrats.

A third candidate, Olympia Snowe, decided to retire rather than face the will of far-right Tea Party primary voters. Independent Angus King, who is heavily favored to win Tuesday, will caucus with Democrats. These three seats alone, which were otherwise shoe-ins for the Republican candidates, are the difference between Republicans gaining and losing seats. Democrats will at worst retain their majority on Tuesday and at best gain two seats.

House

Democrats hoped that the gain of over 60 seats for Republicans in 2010 would mean that the tide would fall back and result in a net gain of at least the 25 seats that are needed for Dems to win a majority. It does not appear to be in the cards. The average of polls shows the national popular vote for House races to be neck-and-neck. Gerrymandering by Republican legislatures in a number of large states, including Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, make reaching the necessary 25 seats unlikely. Republicans will retain their majority but Democrats will gain between 5 and 10 seats.

Conclusion

In 2008, I accurately projected the outcome in every state except three: Florida and Indiana (which went for Obama) and Missouri (which went for McCain). Ultimately, I was too conservative in my view of Obama’s performance in 2008. In 2010, I correctly projected the outcome of the country’s Senate races. We’ll see how 2012 turns out in the days to come as ballots are cast and votes are counted. I’ll analyze the results in a new post when all of the data is in. Until then, go out and vote!

*Edit*

A previous version accidentally colored West Virginia blue. The estimated Electoral Vote total of 332 is unaffected by this error.

President Obama Heavy Favorite For Tuesday

Posted on: November 3rd, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

President Barack Obama is a heavy favorite to win on Tuesday against Republican Mitt Romney according to an analysis of state-by-state polling data. It appeared after the first debate that Romney might make a race of it with polls showing a surge in his direction, but within two weeks of the first debate the polling averages settled towards a statistical tie. The majority of national polls now either show a literal tie or a slight Obama advantage nationally.

U.S. President Obama Speaks at Intel's Fab 42
The president will have plenty of reason to smile if the polls hold up.

Even more important than the national popular vote, though, is of course state-by-state results. If current polling is accurate, Obama will win in the range of 281-347 electoral votes. Obama importantly holds consistent polling leads in Ohio where eight of the most recent polls have Obama ahead, one shows a tie and only one has Romney ahead (and it is sponsored by a Republican affiliated pollster). Likewise, Florida has moved in recent weeks from leaning toward Romney to becoming a true toss-up. Obama leads in four of the ten most recent polls out of the Sunshine State, Romney leads in four and they are tied in two. It is literally a toss-up, although momentum favors Obama. Even more bleak for Romney: the twenty-two swing state polls released on Friday showed Obama leading in nineteen, Romney in one and two ties.

Ultimately, Obama has a much stronger base of Democratic-leaning states than Romney has GOP-leaning states. If you give Obama all of the states that have went to the Democrat in the past five straight elections, Obama has 242 Electoral Votes (EVs) of the 270 that are required to win the White House. Add in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico (where he has polled consistently ahead in each state by respected non-partisan pollsters) then you would reach 281 EVs, which I consider the low end of Obama’s likely results on Tuesday night. Throw in Colorado, which is close but has leaned more Obama than Romney most of the cycle, and you reach 290. He would reach 332 by adding Florida and Virginia to Obama’s column, both possibilities but still less likely than the other states as they are near literal toss-ups. Finally, he could reach 347 by winning North Carolina, but he has polled worse in NC than any of the other states. Frankly, North Carolina is the only “swing state” that Romney can more or less count on. For Romney to win he would need to sweep the table of all of these states, plus pick off

Of course this analysis is based on polling data that could be influenced by the recent hurricane. It’s not clear how the hurricane and its aftermath will change the state of the race. It’s distinctly possible that the hurricane can hurt Obama’s popular vote total in places like Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania where power has not been fully restored and people are more worried about rebuilding their lives. Clearly you can’t blame them if the election becomes a secondary thought. Nonetheless, Obama should win those states without much problem. It would just affect the national popular vote total.

I will have a full state-by-state prediction on Tuesday for both the presidential election and Senate races. Stay tuned!

Obama Overwhelming Favorite Among Registered Voters

Posted on: September 9th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

It goes without saying that having an engaged base of supporters will help your electoral chances. An analysis by statistician Nate Silver finds that Obama would have a 91% chance of winning in November among registered voters. He is still a 68% favorite among likely voters thanks to consistent leads at both the national and state levels. It seems to me that the hundreds of millions that will be spent on television attack ads is misplaced. With very few voters undecided – some polls have them numbered as few as 2 or 3 percent – focusing on get-out-the-vote efforts is more critical at this time than expensive campaign ads.

Barack Obama Pauses in Line

Prediction: Romney Will Pick Paul Ryan

Posted on: July 18th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

Mitt Romney has had a bad weak. His refusal to release his tax returns, a precedent for presidential candidates going back decades, has put the campaign on defense for several weeks now. Despite attempts to push the conversation elsewhere by calling President Obama a liar and having surrogates claim that the president needs to “learn how to be an American“, the Romney campaign is still in a defensive fetal position.

What would be the best way to change the subject? Announce a running mate. By picking a running mate this week the Romney campaign could distract the media’s attention away from his liabilities (the tax returns, his “retroactive” retirement from Bain Capital, etc.) and towards a flashy new subject. Of course this is just pure speculation, but if I were advising the Romney campaign, it would make sense to drop the bombshell this week.

Which leads us to the question: “Who?”

I’m going out on a limb and saying that Romney will pick Paul Ryan. There are three main reasons: Romney has already said that he supports the controversial Ryan budget which ends Medicare and turns it into a voucher program so it will be used as a weapon against him anyway. Ryan can also bridge the Tea Party, where Romney has a clear weakness, with the more mainstream business-oriented wing of the party. The third reason is that the Romney people really think that they have a shot in Wisconsin.

The polling does not bear this out, including exit polls from the Wisconsin recall, but the success of Scott Walker in June might tempt them to roll the dice. Wisconsin is the closest thing to a swing state from any of the potential veeps outside of Rob Portman’s Ohio. Tim Pawlenty comes from decidedly blue Minnesota and John Thune from deep red South Dakota. Of course Dick Cheney came from the reddest of red states in Wyoming and that didn’t stop George W. Bush, but then again, the Bush campaign needed someone with foreign policy credentials on the ticket. To that extent Romney needs some credibility with the Tea Party. Ryan would give them that without compromising the ticket (too much).

Rep. Paul Ryan

Rick Santorum’s Path to the Nomination

Posted on: March 14th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum accomplished two important wins in the Deep South on Tuesday – one in Alabama and the other in Mississippi – that denied front-runner Mitt Romney the opportunity to finish up the nasty GOP primary fight. While Romney’s aides publicly state that it would take an “act of God” for Santorum to win the nomination, it is actually more plausible than they would have you believe.

Rick Santorum in Nashua

With Newt Gingrich’s second place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi – states that he recently said that he must win – his campaign’s path forward it unclear at best. Indeed it would take an act of God for Gingrich to become the Republican nominee. The same cannot be said of Santorum, though, who despite trailing Romney by roughly 200 delegates could quickly catch up to him at the convention. Consider this scenario:

The Republicans enter their convention in Tampa without a candidate holding a clear majority of delegates – a requirement for winning the nomination. The first round of ballots is indecisive. After this point delegates bound to Romney or any other candidate could vote for whomever they please.

Now imagine that Gingrich drops out of the race. Where do his delegates go? Will these conservative, largely Southern delegates go with a former moderate governor from Massachusetts? Highly doubtful, unless Gingrich is enticed by another prize: a slot on the ticket.

This is where Santorum can find a path without entering the convention with a majority of delegates. He wins Gingrich’s endorsement early on, ensuring that his supporters will carry Santorum to victory in places like Texas. Then Santorum cuts a deal with Gingrich giving him a VP slot in exchange for his hundred plus delegates. Adding the delegates won so far by Gingrich and Santorum puts him within striking distance of Romney. Hardly an act of God.

Olympia Snowe Retiring from Senate, Likely Handing Dems Key Seat

Posted on: February 28th, 2012 by Kyle. | No Comments

Senator Olympia Snowe unexpectedly announced on Tuesday that she is retiring from the Senate. Along with her colleague Susan Collins, the two are known as the “Maine moderates” and have both consistently won re-election as Republicans in a Democratic state. She cited increased partisanship as her main reason for retiring: “I do not realistically expect the partisanship of recent years in the Senate to change over the short term. So at this stage of my tenure in public service, I have concluded that I am not prepared to commit myself to an additional six years in the Senate.”

President Obama commended Senator Snowe for her service. “For nearly four decades, Olympia Snowe has served the people of the great state of Maine. Elected to the state House in 1973, Olympia went on to be the first woman in American history to serve in both houses of a state legislature and both houses of Congress. From her unwavering support for our troops, to her efforts to reform Wall Street, to fighting for Maine’s small businesses, Senator Snowe’s career demonstrates how much can be accomplished when leaders from both parties come together to do the right thing for the American people.”

Snowe is one of the few Republicans that have been willing to cross the aisle and join Democrats on legislation during the Obama years. She supported the stimulus package as well as the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. She joined her Republican cohorts in killing the DREAM Act, as well as voting against health care reform, despite indicating that she would vote for it if it didn’t have a public option in the bill – which eventually was removed.

The senator was a decided favorite for re-election, especially in the general election, although Tea Party challengers were biting at her heels in the primary. With Snowe’s departure this seat now has to be considered favored for the Democratic candidate. However, only two weeks are left until the filing deadline for both parties. We’ll have to see who throws their hat into the ring. That being said, the Democrats were largely on defense so far this cycle in places like Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana. Having Maine as a new pick-up, as well as Massachusetts with Scott Brown, makes it much more likely that Democrats will hold onto the Senate.

How did our projections hold up?

Posted on: November 3rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Looking back at last night’s election results and comparing them to the projections that were made on this site, we had a perfect score. The races that we had rated as “Toss-ups” split 4-2 for the Republicans, but all of the “Leans Democrat” seats stayed in Democratic hands (the only caveat is that Washington state still has votes yet to be counted). Let’s take a look at the projections from October 27:

The “Toss-up” states that I had listed were Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. States that “Lean Democrat” included California, Washington and West Virginia. Now let’s look at the actual results on Election Day:

The individual results for the “Toss-up” states looked like this, organized by how close the final result was:

Colorado

Michael Bennet (D) – 47.7%
Ken Buck (R) – 46.8%

Pennsylvania

Pat Toomey (R) – 51%
Joe Sestak (D) – 49%

Illinois

Mark Kirk (R) – 48.3%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) – 46.2%

Wisconsin

Ron Johnson (R) – 51.9%
Russ Feingold (D) – 47.1%

Nevada

Harry Reid (D) – 50.2%
Sharron Angle (R) – 44.6%

Alaska

Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) – 41%
Joe Miller (R) – 34.2%

Analysis:

We can look at these results and conclude a few things. First, the conventional wisdom that Harry Reid was dead in Nevada was wrong. Not only did he win, he got over 50 percent of the vote. In Pennsylvania, many pundits had assumed that Pat Toomey was well ahead of Joe Sestak. The final results showed a tight 2 point race. Wisconsin, which some people criticized me for listing as a “Toss-up”, turned out to be closer than both Nevada and West Virginia. Lastly, incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski went against the odds to win a write-in vote over the Republican nominee, Joe Miller, who defeated her in the primary just a couple months ago. In each of the “Toss-up” calls that were made, the final results were anywhere between 0.9 – 6.8%. None of the races that were listed as either “Leans Democrat” or “Leans Republican” switched parties.

Election Projection 2010: October 27 Senate Update

Posted on: October 26th, 2010 by Kyle. | 2 Comments

We are now in the final stretch of the midterm elections. We have looked at every Senate race in the country. Between now and Election Day we are going to make some revisions as needed.

Adjustments

Connecticut – Democrat Richard Blumenthal has opened a double-digit lead over Republican Linda McMahon. The multi-millionaire McMahon, who has put her own fortune into the race, is seeing firsthand how difficult it is for conservative Republicans to win in the Northeast. Even more striking is that it is a strong year for Republicans in other parts of the country. Perhaps the one exception in this region is New Hampshire, where Republicans may pick up as many as two House seats and retain control of retiring Republican Judd Gregg’s Senate seat. At any rate, Connecticut is moving from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat.

Illinois – This is a race that should not have happened. Had it not been for the Rod Blagojevich deciding to try to sell a Senate seat (which resulted in a conviction of lying to the FBI), President Obama’s former seat would likely be held by a respected Congressperson like Jan Schakowsky or Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Instead, Democrats went through a messy ordeal where Blagojevich appointed sitting Senator Roland Burris, who decided not to run for the seat in his own right when he saw that he could neither raise the funds to mount a campaign nor win even if he had the fortune of Meg Whitman.

Democrats nominated the state’s Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, a young Obama protégé. Unfortunately for the party, he carried baggage from a family bank that went into federal receivership after it suffered from the same mortgage crisis that had gripped other banks nationwide. His Republican opponent, Congressman Mark Kirk, has a habit of lying about his military record and teaching experience, as well as flip-flopping positions. Needless to say, Giannoulias should be far ahead in the polls, but the fact that it is a Republican year and his family bank problems are dragging him down. It will be one of the closest in the country and could be decided by the support of third party candidates. The Green Party candidate could hand this seat to Mark Kirk and the Republicans. This race is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-up.

Kentucky – Democrats had hoped that Kentucky would be one of the few potential Republican seats that they could carry. Their candidate, Attorney General Jack Conway, is the Southern Democrat that can win statewide elections. Republican opponent Rand Paul is a quirky conservative that is too far right for even many Kentuckians. The race was close and some polls even had Conway ahead. Then the Conway campaign released an ad questioning Paul’s religion, saying that in college he worshiped “Aqua Buddha”, a reference to a CQ article alleging Paul forcibly told a woman in college to bow down and worship a bong that they smoked from. The Paul campaign immediately attacked the ad and the candidate himself refused to shake the hand of Conway at a debate. If the latest polls are any indication, the ad seems to have backfired, even if it is true. This race is moving from Toss-up to Leans Republican.


Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered with the above mentioned revisions:

Election Projection 2010: Northeast Senate Seats

Posted on: October 20th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

We’re now just two weeks away from the midterm elections. Today, we’re going to have a look at the Northeast:

Connecticut
Incumbent: Chris Dodd (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Linda McMahon (R), Richard Blumenthal (D)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Linda McMahon joins several other wealthy Republican businesswomen that have run for office this year (California’s Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are the other two). Each of them appears likely to lose in Democratically-inclined states. McMahon made her wealth as an executive for WWE (yes, that McMahon). Blumenthal has made a point that the company’s health record is not all that great. In fact, it’s quite poor. Several wrestlers died either while McMahon was the leader of the WWE or shortly after leaving the company. Blumenthal has problems of his own, taking credit for serving in Vietnam, when in fact, he was only in the military at the time, but not stationed in Vietnam. Still, even though both candidates have character flaws, Connecticut is a Democratic state and will likely elect Blumenthal. Polls show him leading anywhere from five points to double digits.

Delaware
Incumbent: Ted Kaufman (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Christine O’Donnell (R), Chris Coons (D)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Perhaps no Senate race has garnered more media coverage than Delaware. In a normal year, it wouldn’t get any attention at all. That was until political neophyte and Tea Party darling Christine O’Donnell knocked off Congressman and former governor Mike Castle, a moderate, to win the Republican Party’s primary. Castle was an overwhelming favorite to win the general election and give the Republicans a pick-up. Now the odds have flipped. Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold on to the former seat of Vice President Joe Biden. If Republicans manage to win 9 Senate seats this year, O’Donnell and the Tea Party will be vilified for handing the Senate to the Democrats.

Maryland
Incumbent: Barbara Mikulski (D)
Challenger(s): Eric Wargotz (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Not a whole lot to say about Maryland’s Senate race. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Mikulski will easily get re-elected over Republican challenger Eric Wargotz. The only question is by how much. The real race to watch in Maryland is for governor, where incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley finds himself in a rematch with the man whom he defeated in 2006, former governor Bob Ehrlich.

New Hampshire
Incumbent: Judd Gregg (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Kelly Ayotte (R), Paul Hodes (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

New Hampshire was a state that was trending towards the Democrats. While George W. Bush won the state in 2000, John Kerry picked it up in 2004, and Barack Obama improved upon that in 2008. Democrats won both House seats and the governor’s mansion in 2006 and a Senate seat in 2008, yet polling shows that Republicans are likely to pick up at least one (possibly both) of the state’s House seats and hold on to their remaining Senate seat. Paul Hodes, the Democratic Congressman running for the Senate, is trailing New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte by anywhere from 5 to 15 points. Hodes saw a mini-surge in his standing when former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed Ayotte, but it does not appear to have helped him enough.

New York (A)
Incumbent: Chuck Schumer (D)
Challenger(s): Jay Townsend (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

New York is having two Senate races this year: one is the seat held by Chuck Schumer and the other is the former seat of Hillary Clinton, now held by Kirsten Gillibrand. Both Democrats are expected to win quite easily. Schumer has over $24 million in the bank and his Republican opponent has not even raised $100,000. If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid goes down in November, Schumer has shown interest for his job and would likely face off against Illinois Senator Dick Durbin.

New York (B)
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Challenger(s): Joseph DioGuardi (R)
Prediction: Likely Democrat

Kirsten Gillibrand is an upstate New York politician and the incumbent Senator of her seat. She was appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat after she resigned to become Secretary of State. Gillibrand is conservative by New York standards, but has moved to the left since joining the Upper Chamber. As a former member of the House, she road the Democratic wave of 2006 to victory. While Gillibrand is the favorite over former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi, this will be a closer race than Schumer’s. Nonetheless, national Republicans are not putting any money into the race.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Arlen Specter (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Pat Toomey (R), Joe Sestak (D)
Prediction: Toss-up

There have been many odd races across the country so far this year. Pennsylvania was one of the first. Senator Arlen Specter, at the time a Republican, switched parties after he learned that he would face a challenge from far-right conservative Pat Toomey, a former congressman that challenged Specter in 2004. Toomey lost that race, but not by much, and was favored to beat Specter the second time. Specter switched parties and ran as a Democrat, hoping that no one would notice his voting record. While Specter voted reliably with the Democrats following his switch, Democratic voters had a choice of electing a real Democrat when Joe Sestak jumped into the race. Sestak had run in 2006 and won a Philadelphia area district. He was the underdog throughout most of the race, but brilliantly used ads showing Specter talking about he switched parties to be re-elected. Now Sestak finds himself in the underdog position yet again. However, polls have shown a tightening of the race with a couple even showing Sestak in the lead. Sestak also has a money advantage over Toomey in these final weeks.

Adjustments

Since our last update we have seen several changes in the Senate outlook, each of them at the expense of Democrats. Some states, such as Wisconsin, have moved from Leans Democrat to Toss-up. West Virginia, which was rated as Likely Democrat, is now Leans Democrat. Nevada is moving from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; Florida Toss-Up to Leans Republican; North Carolina from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Ohio from Toss-Up to Likely Republican; Arizona from Leans Republican to Likely Republican; Colorado from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up; and Missouri from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. We’ll detail a few of these changes below:

Colorado – Appointed Senator Michael Bennet has struggled to fend off a challenge from Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. The outspoken Buck has said that he opposes abortion in all cases, including rape and incest. He has also said that being gay is a choice, not something that you are born with. Candidates like this would not normally win in a state like Colorado, but with a bad economy, voters are desperate.

Florida – Democrat Kendrick Meek and Governor Charlie Crist, a former Republican turned independent, have been nuking each other over the airwaves. Republican Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio has benefitted from this sniping and will probably squeak by with less than 50 percent of the vote. It isn’t possible for a divided left to win in a swing state like Florida. All Rubio needs to do is carry the Republican vote heavily and he wins.

Ohio – Ohio is a state that has simply gone out of reach for Democrats. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher is the Democratic candidate and Rob Portman the Republican, a former Congressman and Budget Director in the Bush administration. Fisher is a poor campaigner and fundraiser, while Portman has benefitted from the Bush donor list. National Democrats have pulled the plug on their financial support of Fisher, putting it in states where they think they can win (like Colorado and nearby Pennsylvania). On the other hand, Democratic hopes have improved in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Incumbent governor Ted Strickland has at least a 50/50 chance of winning re-election over Republican John Kasich.

Below is a map of the Senate races that we have covered so far:

Map

Democrats Gain Momentum Going into November

Posted on: October 3rd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

With a little under one month to go before Election Day 2010, the fight for Congress is far from over. While Republicans had gained a sizable lead during the summer months, polling in the last few weeks has shown a tightening of the race. Several polls have even shown a Democratic lead on the generic Congressional ballot. This is a major change from August when Republicans had a double digit lead in some polls.

The first thing that people should know about polls is that they are not a predictor of what will happen in the future. A poll taken in August is worthless (or certainly in May). Why is that? Most people do not begin to pay attention to races until after Labor Day, the unofficial kickoff to the election season. Another reason is that undecided voters tend to make up their minds relatively close to Election Day.

Let’s take a look at where we stand right now on the generic ballot for Congress:

Republicans peaked in late August/early September and have been coming down ever since. Their one point lead is relatively meaningless when undecided voters overwhelmingly voted for Obama in 2008, indicating that their preference leans towards the Democrats. Once you remove Rasmussen from the poll average (a polling firm that has skewed heavily towards the GOP this cycle) and Zogby (which conducts its polls online and has a poor track record), we find that Democrats have actually surged into a one point advantage over the Republicans:

This is a significant change from just a few weeks ago. The trend lines are clear no matter whether you choose to include Republican-leaning Rasmussen or not. Democrats are climbing fast and Republicans are diving. Several explanations can be made as to why this is happening, but certainly the intensification of a fall campaign has a lot to do with it. Democrats, who were largely unmotivated throughout most of this year, appear to be getting out of their funk. A lot of this undoubtedly has to do with alarming victories by far-right Tea Party candidates across the country.

Also, while some in the media have declared that President Obama is a liability for Democrats, his approval rating stands in the mid to high 40s. When Republicans lost control of the House and Senate in 2006, President Bush’s approval rating stood in the low 30s. Democrats will undoubtedly still lose some seats. History tells us that the president’s party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. Whether it will be a blowout or not appears to be leaning in favor of the Democrats holding both chambers of Congress – if current trends continue and Democratic voters show up to the polls.

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