It goes without saying that having an engaged base of supporters will help your electoral chances. An analysis by statistician Nate Silver finds that Obama would have a 91% chance of winning in November among registered voters. He is still a 68% favorite among likely voters thanks to consistent leads at both the national and state levels. It seems to me that the hundreds of millions that will be spent on television attack ads is misplaced. With very few voters undecided – some polls have them numbered as few as 2 or 3 percent – focusing on get-out-the-vote efforts is more critical at this time than expensive campaign ads.

Posted in Election 2012, Election Projection, Politics

Tags: barack obama, chances of winning, likely voters, mitt romney, nate silver, registered voters