Kyle Bell

For all of the talk in the media about how bad of an “anti-incumbent year” 2010 is turning out to be, only six members of Congress have so far been swept from power. Two of them – Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith – were party switchers that had never won a primary in the party that they switched to. Of the 282 elections so far this year with federal incumbents, only 2 percent have lost.

Larry Sabato told Slate.com that this is about average. “Usually there’s one Senate seat lost, we’re at two; about five House seats, we’re at four.” There are 535 members of Congress, although only 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election, with the rest of the members retiring or not seeking re-election. The remaining primaries of 2010 offer few true opportunities for upsets. John McCain in Arizona is being challenged by J.D. Hayworth. Appointed Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado is also being challenged in what could prove to be an upset.

The six incumbent losses – again, only 2 percent of primaries with incumbents in them – can readily be explained. Party switchers rarely are welcomed by their new party. Rep. Mollohan faced ethics allegations and Congresswoman Kilpatrick was the mother of Detroit’s unpopular, legally-challenged mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Finally, Senator Bob Bennett of Utah and Congressman Bob Inglis were victims of a rabid Tea Party movement that is seeking to purify the Republican Party.

The point is that the environment, while certainly not preferable for incumbents in a year where unemployment is near double digits, is not nearly as bad as the media is making it out to be. These cases show that scandal, disloyalty and “moderation” (although Bennett and Inglis both had conservative ratings of over 90%) are weaknesses, not incumbency. If anything, incumbency is a strength (politically speaking). This is no different than any other year as the average retention rate in the House is 93.3 percent and 81.6 percent in the Senate. If you are an incumbent, you should like your odds.