Archive for August, 2010

Tea Party Candidate Defeats Alaska Senator Murkowski

Posted on: August 31st, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

One week after the Alaska Republican Senate primary we have a winner. Senator Lisa Murkowski conceded defeat in a phone call to her Sarah Palin-backed far-right challenger. Joe Miller, who led by 1,668 votes after last week’s primary, was leading by 1,100 votes once counting resumed today. Some 16,000 votes had yet been counted as of last Wednesday, mostly mail-in absentee ballots and disputed ballots.

Murkowski’s defeat is the latest in a string of upsets for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who has also seen more traditional and mainstream Republican candidates lose or forced out in Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Nevada and Utah. The Tea Party victories jeopardize three Republican-held seats (Florida, Kentucky and now Alaska) and Democrat-held pick-up opportunities in Colorado and Nevada.

Palin-Backed Candidate Leading Senator Murkowski in Alaska

Posted on: August 25th, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Joe Miller, a political unknown supported by Sarah Palin and the Tea Party, is leading Senator Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s Republican Senate primary by 3 points. With 84 percent of precincts reporting, Miller is ahead with 51.45% (45,188 votes) to Murkowski’s 48.55% (42,633 votes). While Miller is on-track to defeating Murkowski, the race remains undecided until some 16,000 absentee ballots are counted.

Miller credited the support of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his possible upset. “I’m absolutely certain that was pivotal,” he said. Not surprisingly, Senator Murkowski had a different take on Palin’s support for her opponent. “I think she’s out for her own self-interest. I don’t think she’s out for Alaska’s interest,” Murkowski said.

Senator Murkowski and Sarah Palin have a history of conflict. In 2006, Palin resoundingly defeated Murkowski’s father in the GOP primary for governor. Frank Murkowski came in third place during that primary and received only 19 percent of the vote. Coincidentally, he had appointed his daughter to the Senate seat that he left empty upon assuming the governor’s office in 2002.

If Miller pulls off the victory, he could put this seat into play for the Democrats. Murkowski was seen as a safe choice, but with a far-right political unknown taking the Republican Party’s nomination, it is possible that Democrats could make this race competitive. It was only two years ago that Mark Begich defeated incumbent Senator Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican member at the time.

Election Projection 2010: Great Plains/Mountain West Senate Seats

Posted on: August 17th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

We’re getting closer to the midterm elections. As such, I will be posting my projections more frequently. The last projections that I published looked at races in the Midwest and South. Now we’re going to have a look at the Great Plains/Mountain West:

Colorado
Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D)
Challenger(s): Ken Buck (R)
Prediction: Leans Democrat

Colorado is likely to be the only real competitive race in this entire region. That said, Democrats have a slight advantage with the defeat of the party’s pick, Jane Norton, to Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. Like other Tea Party candidates across the country, Buck is a weaker candidate in the general election and could help Democrats hold seats that were otherwise vulnerable. Senator Michael Bennet, who had never held elected office before, was appointed after President Obama nominated Ken Salazar to the Department of the Interior.

Idaho
Incumbent: Mike Crapo (R)
Challenger(s): Tom Sullivan (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

The last time Mike Crapo was up for re-election, in 2004, he won 99 percent of the vote. The other 1 percent went to write-in candidates. No Democrat challenged him that year. While Crapo has a challenger this year from Democrat Tom Sullivan, polls have shown the incumbent with a 40 point lead. This seat is safe for the GOP barring a Larry Craig-like controversy.

Kansas
Incumbent: Sam Brownback (R) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Rep. Jerry Moran (R), Lisa Johnston (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

Incumbent Republican Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate in order to seek the governor’s mansion in Kansas. His likely replacement is Representative Jerry Moran, who defeated Representative Todd Tiahrt. Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt and was featured in some of his campaign ads, yet it was not enough. No Democrat has held a Senate seat in Kansas since the 1930s.

North Dakota
Incumbent: Byron Dorgan (D) – Retiring
Challenger(s): Governor John Hoeven (R), Tracy Potter (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

One of the early signs that Democrats were in trouble came when Senator Byron Dorgan, a moderate from North Dakota, decided to retire instead of face a tough re-election battle to the state’s popular Republican governor. With Dorgan out of the race, Republicans are all but assured of picking up the seat. Democrats had managed to hold the two North Dakota Senate seats since 1987 and at least one of the seats since 1960.

Oklahoma
Incumbent: Tom Coburn (R)
Challenger(s): Jim Rogers (D)
Prediction: Leans Republican

Tom Coburn was elected to Congress as 1994’s “Republican Revolution”. He moved to the Upper Chamber in 2004 with 53 percent of the vote. Coburn’s seat has been held by Republicans since 1968. The last time a Democrat held a Senate seat in Oklahoma was in 1994, before James Inhofe assumed it from retiring Senator David Boren. Expect Coburn to crush his Democratic competition in November.

South Dakota
Incumbent: John Thune (R)
Challenger(s): No Challenger
Prediction: Likely Republican

There is no uncertainty around South Dakota’s Senate seat in 2010. John Thune will cruise to re-election as no Democrats have filed to challenge him. Thune, a possible candidate for president in 2012 or 2016, defeated Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a slim margin: 51-49%. The only person that could have even made this race competitive would have been Daschle, but seeing as he had tax woes and this election cycle seems to be favoring Republicans, even he would have had a difficult time unseating Thune.

Utah
Incumbent: Bob Bennett (R) – Defeated in Primary
Challenger(s): Mike Lee (R), Sam Granato (D)
Prediction: Likely Republican

You can hardly get more Republican than Utah. The real race in this state was not the upcoming general election but instead the Republican primary. Conservatives ousted sitting Senator Bob Bennett, a mainstream conservative who voted with the party over 90 percent of the time. Conservative voting records only go so far for the Tea Party crowd when you vote for bank bailouts as Bennett did in 2008.

Adjustments

As we move along throughout the election cycle, I am going to continue to add new races to our list. While I do that, I am also going to make adjustments along the way to races where significant movement is seen.

North Carolina is one of those states. Senator Richard Burr has suffered from poor approval ratings throughout his first term. Nearly every current poll has him under 50 percent support, some as low as 39%. While he continues to lead his Democratic opponent, Elaine Marshall, the gap between them is fast dwindling. This race is being changed from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up”. As we previously noted, Senator Burr voted against an extension of unemployment benefits in a state that has nearly double digit unemployment. This is not likely to play well with voters in North Carolina.

Illinois is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”. Alexi Giannoulias has taken a slight lead in the polls. Republican Mark Kirk had led or tied Giannoulias in the polls until revelations that he exaggerated his military service emerged. Kirk claimed that he received a military award that he did not. Kirk also claimed that he was a nursery school teacher. However, a member of the school said that, “he was never, ever considered a teacher,” but instead played with the children. Given that this is Obama’s adopted home state and the Democratic tilt of Illinois, Giannoulias should manage to win, although it will be somewhat close.

Below is a map of the Southern, Great Plains, Mountain West and Midwestern Senate races as described in these first three election projection updates:

Map

Bennet and Buck Win in CO, Lamont Loses in CT

Posted on: August 10th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

The anti-incumbent “wave”, which I pointed out has only swept away six out of 282 incumbents so far this year, failed to topple appointed Democratic Senator Michael Bennet. The Obama-backed Bennet faced party insider and former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Interestingly, former President Bill Clinton endorsed Romanoff against the White House’s wishes, but his candidate still lost anyway.

On the Republican side, Tea Party favorite Ken Buck is leading Washington favorite Jane Norton, a former Lt. Governor. Buck possibly hurt his chances with his Tea Party base when he called them “dumbasses” for making Obama’s birth certificate an issue in the campaign. Not exactly the way to close a campaign. At either rate, Norton was the favorite and she now trails. Finally, Republican Dan Maes leads Scott McInnis in the GOP’s primary for governor. McInnis was recently caught plagiarizing work that he was paid $300,000 for.

Colorado Senate Primary

Michael Bennet (D) – 54.3%
Andrew Romanoff (D) – 45.6%

Ken Buck (R) – 51.6%
Jane Norton (R) – 48.3%

Colorado Gubernatorial Primary

Dan Maes (R) – 50.1%
Scott McInnis (R) – 49.8%

Ned Lamont, a liberal favorite and victor over Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary for Senate, lost his bid for governor to Democrat Dan Malloy 58-42. Republicans nominated Tom Foley with 42 percent of the vote. Democrats see Connecticut as a key pick-up opportunity. On the Senate side, Republicans nominated WWE Linda McMahon beat former Congressman Rob Simmons 49-28. Democrats nominated Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for the seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd.

Connecticut Gubernatorial Primary

Tom Foley (R) – 42%
Michael Fedele (R) – 39%
Oz Griebel (R) – 19%

Dan Malloy (D) – 58%
Ned Lamont (D) – 42%

Connecticut Senate Primary

Linda McMahon (R) – 49%
Rob Simmons (R) – 28%
Peter Schiff (R) – 23%

Is 2010 an anti-incumbent year? Not quite.

Posted on: August 5th, 2010 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

For all of the talk in the media about how bad of an “anti-incumbent year” 2010 is turning out to be, only six members of Congress have so far been swept from power. Two of them – Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith – were party switchers that had never won a primary in the party that they switched to. Of the 282 elections so far this year with federal incumbents, only 2 percent have lost.

Larry Sabato told Slate.com that this is about average. “Usually there’s one Senate seat lost, we’re at two; about five House seats, we’re at four.” There are 535 members of Congress, although only 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election, with the rest of the members retiring or not seeking re-election. The remaining primaries of 2010 offer few true opportunities for upsets. John McCain in Arizona is being challenged by J.D. Hayworth. Appointed Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado is also being challenged in what could prove to be an upset.

The six incumbent losses – again, only 2 percent of primaries with incumbents in them – can readily be explained. Party switchers rarely are welcomed by their new party. Rep. Mollohan faced ethics allegations and Congresswoman Kilpatrick was the mother of Detroit’s unpopular, legally-challenged mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Finally, Senator Bob Bennett of Utah and Congressman Bob Inglis were victims of a rabid Tea Party movement that is seeking to purify the Republican Party.

The point is that the environment, while certainly not preferable for incumbents in a year where unemployment is near double digits, is not nearly as bad as the media is making it out to be. These cases show that scandal, disloyalty and “moderation” (although Bennett and Inglis both had conservative ratings of over 90%) are weaknesses, not incumbency. If anything, incumbency is a strength (politically speaking). This is no different than any other year as the average retention rate in the House is 93.3 percent and 81.6 percent in the Senate. If you are an incumbent, you should like your odds.

Fed Judge Overturns Prop 8 Ban on Gay Marriage

Posted on: August 4th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Today was a historic day for gay and straight Americans alike. Judge Vaughn Walker, a federal judge for the Northern District of California, ruled that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional. His actions invalidate the initiative passed narrowly by voters in 2008 that banned gay marriage in the state of California. While Judge Walker issued a stay on his own ruling upon an expected appeal, thus delaying marriage licenses from being issued to gay couples for the time being, convincing the 9^th Circuit of Appeals to overturn this ruling will be enormously difficult for the defendants.

The judge’s decision mirrored arguments that I outlined in March, arguing that the equal protection clause of the Constitution guaranteed these rights. The law was challenged under the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses of the 14th Amendment. Judge Walker writes that: “Each challenge is independently meritorious, as Proposition 8 both unconstitutionally burdens the exercise of the fundamental right to marry and creates an irrational classification on the basis of sexual orientation.”

The fundamental idea behind the 14^th Amendment is to protect against arbitrary uses of power. If the government (or in the case of Prop 8, a voter-passed initiative) takes away certain rights, “the government must show that the intrusion withstands strict scrutiny.” Judge Walker noted that the Supreme Court has held that marriage is considered a fundamental right that is protected by the Due Process Clause. Judge Walker points out that race restrictions were once placed on marriage and that the Supreme Court recognized that “despite their historical prevalence, [they] stood in stark contrast to the concepts of liberty and choice inherent in the right to marry.”

The next question before the court was the issue of Equal Protection under the Constitution. Judge Walker wrote that, “The court defers to legislative (or in this case, popular) judgment if there is at least a debatable question whether the underlying basis for the classification is rational. … The evidence at trial shows that gays and lesbians experience discrimination based on unfounded stereotypes and prejudices specific to sexual orientation.”

He notes the Lawrence case from 2003 where the Supreme Court rejected a Texas law banning sodomy: “Indeed, homosexual conduct and attraction are constitutionally protected and integral parts of what makes someone gay or lesbian.” Ultimately, Prop 8 is unconstitutional on Equal Protection grounds because it “targets gays and lesbians in a manner specific to their sexual orientation and, because of their relationship to one another, Proposition 8 targets them specifically due to sex.”

The legal history of gay marriage in California is quite lengthy. Voters approved a ban on gay marriage in 2000 with Proposition 22. San Francisco’s Mayor Gavin Newsom challenged this by issuing marriage licenses to gay couples. These licenses were invalidated by the California Supreme Court without issuing a ruling on whether the ban on gay marriage was constitutional or not. The city of San Francisco filed an action in state court to overturn California’s ban on gay marriage. The argument was that the ban was expressly against the constitution of California. The trial judge agreed, stating that it violated the state’s equal protection guarantees. An appellate court reversed the decision until the California Supreme Court ultimately decided in May 2008 that banning gay marriage was unconstitutional.

This is what led to Proposition 8. Petitioners sought to include in the state’s constitution a ban on gay marriage. They successfully got the requisite number of signatures for the initiative to be placed on the 2008 general election ballot. Ultimately, voters passed Prop 8 by a 52 to 48 margin on the same night that voters across the nation elected the first African-American president. Attempts to once again have the ban overturned failed. The California Supreme Court allowed the 18,000 marriages that occurred between the initial May 2008 ruling against the original ban and Prop 8’s passage modifying the California Constitution.

Now that a federal court has ruled on this issue, the next step will be to the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. It is known as one of the more liberal in the country and will in all likelihood uphold the ruling of Judge Walker. It is worth noting that he was appointed by a Republican president, George H. W. Bush. The trial court case lasted for roughly a year. It is unlikely that an appeal will conclude any sooner. The final step would be an appeal before the U.S. Supreme Court. Depending on how the Supreme Court rules, gay marriage will either become legal across the country or current bans will remain in place.