Kyle Bell

If you’re a conservative Democrat in Arkansas named Blanche Lincoln, you’re probably not have a very good Easter weekend. Senator Lincoln has raised $1 million in the past three months and has $4 million in the bank. While that normally would not be a terrible haul, her Democratic primary challenger has raised twice as much in just a month’s time. Yes, twice as much in a third of the time. That’s some serious fundraising.

Bill Halter, her challenger, is the Lt. Governor of the state. Polling in the primary shows the race to be competitive, even though his announcement just came on March 1. Lincoln has been trailing her likely Republican challengers for most of the cycle. Her opposition to the public option, along with Joe Lieberman’s, led to its demise in the Senate. Grassroots Democrats have targeted her ever since, labeling her a corporatist for campaign donations she received from insurance companies.

The May 18 primary could determine the fate of this Senate seat, although it appears likely that Democrats will lose it with either candidate. According to a poll from Rasmussen (a Republican leaning pollster), Halter holds every potential Republican candidate to less than 50 percent of the vote. If Lincoln is the Democratic candidate, however, she trails every Republican and holds only one of her four potential opponents to under 50 percent. Part of the reason is because her favorable rating is only 37 percent, while 61 percent view her unfavorably. Halter has a 47 to 40 percent favorable/unfavorable rating.