Kyle Bell

While this election cycle is almost certain to return fewer Democratic members to the House and Senate, Ohio is shaping up to be a state where Democrats have a good chance of picking up a seat currently held by a Republican. George Voinovich, a former governor, is retiring from the Senate this year. Open seats are traditionally much more competitive than seats with an incumbent.

Much of this cycle the Democrats have trailed Republican Rob Portman, a former Bush administration official, by a few points. That appears to have ended with a slight lead for both Democratic candidates for Senate. The reversal of fortune comes just weeks after the health care reform bill became law. President Obama’s approval rating has also edged up in the state, as has Governor Strickland’s, a Democrat.

“In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman 41 – 37 percent, reversing a 40 – 37 percent Portman lead February 24. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner edges Portman 38 – 37 percent, reversing a 40 – 35 percent Republican lead,” Quinnipiac University found. While a 4 point lead and 1 point lead for the Democratic candidates is not comfortable, it is a pretty big swing in the matter of a short period of time (7 points towards Lee Fisher and 6 points towards Jennifer Brunner).