Kyle Bell

Republican Representative Mark Kirk easily won his primary match today against Teabag candidate Pat Hughes 56% to 19%. This sets up a fall race against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, who won his primary with 39% of the vote against David Hoffman (34%) and Cheryle Jackson (19%). The Democrats picked the candidate most likely to hold Barack Obama’s former Senate seat, as polls show him comfortably ahead of Mark Kirk.

The other major races were for governor where incumbent Pat Quinn is fighting for his political survival. Current results have it too close to call. With 96% of precincts reporting, Quinn stood at 50.3% of the vote, with challenger Dan Hynes at 49.7%. Only 5,000 votes separate them. It is possible that we might not have a result until the morning – or perhaps longer if the race continues to tighten. If Quinn loses, it will be in large part due to the fact that he a.) replaced Rod Blagojevich after his indictment and impeachment b.) presides over a budget deficit of $8.95 billion that is largely outside of his control.

On the Republican side there is a similar story. Bill Brady has a tentative lead of 20.6% with Kirk Dillard behind by only 2,000 votes at 20.3%. If Brady ends up winning, it will be a huge upset as a Chicago Tribune poll taken just a couple weeks ago had him at only 9% in fourth place. The leader in that poll, party chairman Mark McKenna, is currently in third place with 19% of the vote. This just goes to show that low turnout primaries can swing in crazy directions. It’s all about motivating your supporters to go out and vote.

Finally, in the race to replace Mark Kirk in Illinois’s 10th Congressional District, 38 year old Dan Seals, an University of Chicago MBA grad, will win the Democratic nomination for a third straight time. Seals lost to Kirk in 2006 by 6 points, 53% to 47%. Their rematch in 2008 was also 53% to 47%. This is a district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and should be a good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

*Edit*

It looks like Pat Quinn will probably squeak by with a win. His lead has increased to approximately 7,000 votes with 98% of precincts reporting. He’s already declared victory, yet Hynes promises to fight on. Definitely may have a recount here. On the Republican side, only 500 votes separate Brady and Dillard. This could certainly see a recount as well.

Also worth noting are the numbers of votes for the two parties. 892,000 voters in Illinois cast a ballot for one of the two Democrats for governor. 757,000 cast ballots for Republican candidates for governor. In the Senate race today 880,000 voted for Democratic candidates, while 732,000 voted for Republican candidates. That’s a 150,000 advantage for Democrats.

Partisans tend to be the ones to vote in primaries (and for that matter, midterm elections). That said, whoever manages to win a bulk of independents will probably win the general election. Mark Kirk certainly has the chance to appeal to independent voters if his Republican base doesn’t force him to move to the right. Conservative Republicans simply can’t win elections in Illinois.