Archive for February, 2010

Passing Health Care Gets Tricky for House Democrats

Posted on: February 28th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Almost all of the attention as of late has been on the Senate, but the House of Representatives could prove decisive in the battle to reform America’s ailing health care system. Both chambers have already passed separate versions of the bill with the Senate voting 60-40 and the House 220-215. The House passed their version of the bill in November with the Senate voting on Christmas Eve. The President’s health care summit does not appear to have changed the math.

Percentage wise, the vote was a lot closer in the House than it was in the Senate. The reason that the Senate got all of our attention was because of the Republican’s obstruction tactics, namely the filibuster, which requires 3/5 for passage instead of a majority vote. The President and Democratic leaders in the Senate appear to be ready to break the Republican’s filibuster attempts by passing a “fixed” version of the bill using a procedural device known as reconciliation.

It’s worth noting that Republicans attacking Democrats for using procedural shortcuts are themselves using procedural roadblocks. The filibuster is not in the Constitution and it is not even a law. It is simply a rule within the Senate which can be revised at the start of each Congress. Reconciliation, however, is in fact a law that was passed in the 1970s to reconcile budget issues. This is exactly what Democrats are likely to use it for as they will make changes to their original bill such as how to pay for it.

Going back to the House, though, it is unlikely that Speaker Pelosi currently has the votes to pass the Senate bill. There are two major hurdles that Democrats will need to face before President Obama can finally sign the bill. The first is that Democrats have literally lost three of their members from resignations and a death. Representative Jack Murtha recently passed away, Rep. Neil Abercrombie resigned to focus on his bid for governor of Hawaii and Robert Wexler resigned to head the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. In other words, with these vacancies, the Democrats stand at 217-215, not enough to pass the bill. A majority of the chamber is 218. The sole Republican to vote with Democrats, Joseph Cao, has stated that he will likely vote against it the second time. That puts Democrats two votes short of a majority.

Is it possible for Nancy Pelosi to strong-arm Democrats that voted against the bill to vote for this revised bill? Certainly it is possible, she could threaten everything from fundraising to committee spots, but most of the Democrats that voted no are conservatives from mostly rural and/or Southern districts. She could make the argument that even Democrats that voted against the health care bill are in big trouble – perhaps because they are undercutting their base. In New Mexico, Harry Teague is trailing former Congressman Pearce by two points, even though he voted against the original bill. Would he be in a stronger position if he had voted to extend insurance benefits to the 45 million that currently live without it? Probably, especially in a relatively poor state like New Mexico.

The second problem for Democrats in the House is the issue of abortion. Bart Stupak of Michigan was successful in passing an amendment that would ban any insurance policies from covering an elective abortion in the bill’s insurance exchange, which would include policy choices from both private and public insurance plans. Democrats in the Senate sought to continue the ban on any public funds going towards abortion, but did not want to restrict private insurance plans in the exchange from offering it. It’s questionable whether pro-life Democrats will vote for the House bill if the Stupak amendment is not present and it’s equally questionable whether pro-choice Democrats will vote for a bill that includes it.

*Edit*

According to CNN, due to the vacancies, the majority in the House is now 217.

Now Sold at Barnes & Noble

Posted on: February 26th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

As an author, you want to reach as large of an audience as possible. That’s why I’ve been working to get my e-books sold on more than just Amazon.com and Smashwords. After a relatively long wait, all four of my works are now available for purchase on Barnes & Noble’s website. They have also been cataloged by Google Books. In the coming weeks my books will become available on Sony and Kobo. Hopefully others will join in the future. Below are links to the B&N pages:

Detroit: A City on the Brink
International Political Economy: Free Trade or Fair Trade?
The Slavery Debate in 19th Century America
An Election to Remember: Obama, Clinton and the Primary of 2008

A Plea to My Friends: Stop the Insensitivity

Posted on: February 24th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

I am not one to believe in the suppression of ideas. Political correctness in the United States has often run amok to the point that we can not even have honest and open conversations with each other anymore. The “word police” are not something that I embrace.

Yet I am troubled by what I find in today’s world, particularly among this nation’s youth. Words like “nigger”, “faggot”, “bitch” and “gay” are thrown around with such regularity (and derogatory meaning) that their use is hardly shocking anymore. We have become desensitized to true racism, sexism and homophobia as normal expressions.

I think that most people would agree that the use of these words by public officials would be considered wrong. Most white people are cognizant enough of the social reality of today’s world and increasing diversity of our nation to not use “nigger” or “faggot” in a public place. Among their friends and family, though, it’s fair game.

It’s sad for me to see otherwise intelligent and respectable people go down the road of racial epithets and demeaning terminology. Of course, for a class of citizens that consist of a majority (like straight white males), it is hard to understand how language can reduce their fellow citizens to a status of second class. Instead, it takes a certain sensitivity to a world that they do not fully understand. Putting yourself in someone’s shoes is perhaps one of the most difficult tasks for a human being to do.

My own friends and family are guilty of these very acts. “Gay” is used interchangeably with something that is bad or undesirable. The same goes for “faggot”. I never used to be offended by these words, but the more that I hear them, the more that I feel like the people that surround me are not respecting who I am. It would be unconscionable these days to call a black person a “nigger”, yet apparently the same does not apply for gay people.

I think that the use of any of these words is unacceptable. We should be mindful of each other and respectful of the differences between us. Perhaps it would lead to more trust, less conflict and a better world. That said, not much separates gay Americans from straight Americans other than a difference in attraction. The same can be said for blacks and whites. We simply have different colored skin. Allowing labels and stereotypes to define who we are as a people is against the very idea of being an American: unique, independent and tolerant.

The Stimulus Saved the Economy

Posted on: February 19th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

The Obama administration has been building up its contention that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, also known as the stimulus, saved the economy from economic depression. The numbers lay this out clearly. During the last months of the Bush administration, the economy was shedding 800,000 jobs a month. After the stimulus passed and began funding projects, cutting taxes for 95% of families and saving everything from teacher’s jobs to police officer’s, the unemployment numbers began to decline.

While the rate of unemployment continued to increase, this slowed dramatically until in November 2009, when the economy finally began to create jobs again. As the president has said continuously, we have a long way to go before everyone that wants a job can find one. But to deny that the stimulus is working is to deny reality. Congress should follow up by passing a new jobs bill to spur further employment opportunities for our citizens. Republicans that block a jobs bill should be punished by voters for playing politics with the health of our economy.

South Bend Mayor Announces Plan for Streetcars, Google High Speed Internet

Posted on: February 15th, 2010 by Kyle. | 2 Comments

The Mayor of South Bend, Indiana today announced that the city would apply for federal grants that would make it possible for a streetcar system to link downtown with the University of Notre Dame, residential and commercial areas of the city. As the South Bend Tribune reports:

Transpo, the local bus service, is seeking federal grants to develop a fixed-rail streetcar route that would connect the two tech parks and link the university with downtown, he said.

The project would use state-of-the-art, fuel-efficient gas/electric hybrid streetcars, a growing trend in some larger U.S. cities. Technological advances in the hybrid cars would negate the need for unsightly overhead electrical wires, he said.

“As we start to see companies migrate from Innovation Park to Ignition Park, it would make it easier to connect the two,” Luecke said afterward. “People could live in Eddy Street Commons, work at Ignition Park and not have to have a car.”

This project would be similar to what other cities have tried, particularly on the West Coast, to provide affordable, clean public transportation options that link central business districts to technology parks and universities. Portland, Oregon is a good example of a modern streetcar system. If the city can win federal support for the project, it could come with minimal start-up costs for the city of South Bend. While some local residents may not find this to be all that appealing, trying to attract new high income residents means that we need to upgrade our public transportation system.

Mayor Luecke also announced in his State of the City address that South Bend would compete for Google’s plan to provide ultra high speed Internet to a trial city. Using fiber optic cables, which South Bend already has developed for businesses and universities, Google would provide Internet speeds of up to 1GB per second at “competitive prices.” South Bend plans on submitting its application by the March 26 deadline.

Evan Bayh Retiring from Senate

Posted on: February 15th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

The past couple weeks we have been tracking the Indiana Senate race as former senator Dan Coats announced his plans to challenge incumbent Senator Evan Bayh. Polling showed that Bayh was far ahead 55-35% and would cruise to re-election. Yet just a day before the filing deadline, Bayh announced that he would not be seeking re-election. Given his 61% approval rating in Indiana, this is one of those rare retirement announcements that was not politically motivated so much as it was a personal decision.

“Congress is not operating as it should,” Bayh said at a news conference in Indianapolis. “The people’s business is not getting done.” He blamed this on increased partisanship and strident ideology in Congress. “I do not love Congress,” Bayh said. “I’m an executive at heart. I value my independence.”

Bayh cited two recent examples of issues that should have garnered bipartisan support, yet were defeated due to political reasons. The first was a deficit reduction commission that Republicans said they supported, but at the last minute 7 of them pulled out even though they co-sponsored the bill. The second was a jobs bill that failed to pass despite the still high unemployment rate.

While a lot of outsiders are going to say that Bayh retired due to an increasingly anti-incumbent mood in the country, the facts do not bear this out. Not only does he continue to be enormously popular in Indiana, he led both of his potential opponents by substantial margins (not to mention both of them are flawed candidates). Finally, Bayh had $12 million in his campaign warchest to spend as he pleased. That’s a ton of money in a medium-sized state like Indiana. He could have saturated the airwaves with ads from July until Election Day and still had money to spare. I take him for his word that his motivation was due to gridlock. Ultimately, if Bayh wants to return to Indianapolis to serve as governor, he has that opportunity now in 2012.

Senator Bayh has taken a lot of heat from liberal bloggers across the country for his centrist positions. As a resident of this state, I have to say that some of his positions (particularly on climate change) were disappointing, yet reflect a realization that Indiana stood not to benefit from cap-and-trade, but to potentially face increased energy costs. He was doing his job to stand for the interests of his state just as California’s delegation was pleading for financial assistance as their state was drowning in debt. From some of the postings that I have read on other sites, you would think that Bayh was a total pariah. In reality he voted for the stimulus and for health care reform, either of which he could have stopped had he sided with the Republicans in their opposition. It was Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana that required special treatment in order to win their votes. Bayh was a team player.

As for who will replace Bayh as the Democratic candidate for Senate, the state party will probably decide that, since the filing deadline is tomorrow. Any of Indiana’s Democratic House members would be a good pick, including Congressman Joe Donnelly representing my district (Indiana’s 2nd). The favorites seem to be either Representative Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth. Both of them come from mostly rural, Southern Indiana districts where Democrats will need to win in order to win statewide. Ironically, if Ellsworth gets the nod, he may face former Republican Rep. John Hostetler whom he beat in 2006. It should be an interesting Senate race in Indiana this year.

Indiana Senate: Bayh Leads Coats by 20

Posted on: February 11th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Just a day after former senator Dan Coats announced his entrance into the Indiana Senate race, a poll shows that he has a lot of ground to make up before he can call himself a “current senator”. Incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh, who enjoys a 61% approval rating in the state, leads Coats by 20 points. If the race were held today, Bayh would win 55% of the vote to Coats’ 35%. Bayh does particularly well in Democratic strongholds of Indianapolis and Northwest Indiana – garnering 68% in both.

Research 2000 also polled President Obama. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win Indiana since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide victory. Despite a dip in support, the president is doing surprisingly well in this traditionally Republican state. His approval rating stands at 46%, only a few points below the national average of 50%, with 49% disapproving. While there is certainly room for improvement, he has a good chance of winning Indiana again in 2012 as the economy improves (and his approval rating with it).

Fmr. Sen. Coats to Challenge Evan Bayh in Indiana

Posted on: February 10th, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Former Senator Dan Coats of Indiana has made it official on a South Bend radio station. He will be challenging incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh for Indiana’s junior seat in the Senate. Coats retired in 1998 when Evan Bayh, a popular two term governor, announced that he would be running for the seat. Since leaving the Senate, Coats has moved to Virginia where he has been serving as a lobbyist. Both will undoubtedly play into the Bayh campaign strategy.

Carpetbaggers have won in states like New York, where Hillary Clinton succeeded in 2000, but have also failed in states like Illinois where Alan Keyes was handily defeated by Barack Obama in 2004. Coats brings experience winning statewide office to the table, something his opponents for the Republican nomination don’t have. However, the last time he won an election was in 1992. In politics, that might as well be a century ago.

Illinois Senate: Kirk vs. Giannoulias, Gov Race Too Close to Call

Posted on: February 2nd, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

Republican Representative Mark Kirk easily won his primary match today against Teabag candidate Pat Hughes 56% to 19%. This sets up a fall race against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, who won his primary with 39% of the vote against David Hoffman (34%) and Cheryle Jackson (19%). The Democrats picked the candidate most likely to hold Barack Obama’s former Senate seat, as polls show him comfortably ahead of Mark Kirk.

The other major races were for governor where incumbent Pat Quinn is fighting for his political survival. Current results have it too close to call. With 96% of precincts reporting, Quinn stood at 50.3% of the vote, with challenger Dan Hynes at 49.7%. Only 5,000 votes separate them. It is possible that we might not have a result until the morning – or perhaps longer if the race continues to tighten. If Quinn loses, it will be in large part due to the fact that he a.) replaced Rod Blagojevich after his indictment and impeachment b.) presides over a budget deficit of $8.95 billion that is largely outside of his control.

On the Republican side there is a similar story. Bill Brady has a tentative lead of 20.6% with Kirk Dillard behind by only 2,000 votes at 20.3%. If Brady ends up winning, it will be a huge upset as a Chicago Tribune poll taken just a couple weeks ago had him at only 9% in fourth place. The leader in that poll, party chairman Mark McKenna, is currently in third place with 19% of the vote. This just goes to show that low turnout primaries can swing in crazy directions. It’s all about motivating your supporters to go out and vote.

Finally, in the race to replace Mark Kirk in Illinois’s 10th Congressional District, 38 year old Dan Seals, an University of Chicago MBA grad, will win the Democratic nomination for a third straight time. Seals lost to Kirk in 2006 by 6 points, 53% to 47%. Their rematch in 2008 was also 53% to 47%. This is a district that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and should be a good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

*Edit*

It looks like Pat Quinn will probably squeak by with a win. His lead has increased to approximately 7,000 votes with 98% of precincts reporting. He’s already declared victory, yet Hynes promises to fight on. Definitely may have a recount here. On the Republican side, only 500 votes separate Brady and Dillard. This could certainly see a recount as well.

Also worth noting are the numbers of votes for the two parties. 892,000 voters in Illinois cast a ballot for one of the two Democrats for governor. 757,000 cast ballots for Republican candidates for governor. In the Senate race today 880,000 voted for Democratic candidates, while 732,000 voted for Republican candidates. That’s a 150,000 advantage for Democrats.

Partisans tend to be the ones to vote in primaries (and for that matter, midterm elections). That said, whoever manages to win a bulk of independents will probably win the general election. Mark Kirk certainly has the chance to appeal to independent voters if his Republican base doesn’t force him to move to the right. Conservative Republicans simply can’t win elections in Illinois.

President Obama Meets with Republicans for Q&A

Posted on: February 1st, 2010 by Kyle. | No Comments

President Obama went full steam into the lion’s den on Friday as he joined Republicans at their annual retreat in Baltimore, Maryland. While he gave a speech that sounded similar themes to his State of the Union, such as a shared burden on solving America’s problems, he also took questions from House Republicans. It was televised on C-Span and many of the cable networks picked it up as well.

This event was a first. While President Obama last year met with Republicans on several occasions, no television cameras were allowed into the meeting. Certainly this is a big departure from the days of President Bush, who would never meet with Congressional Democrats other than in the White House. President Obama showed a great deal of confidence going into a room with 178 members that are openly hostile towards him. Many of them were publicly pushing ideas that he would set up “death panels” on grandma and even raised questions over whether he was an American citizen.

Most of the questions were framed in a way that you would expect on Fox News: loaded with a bunch of commentary, followed by a “why do you hate America so much?” Congressman Mike Pence asked the president whether he would embrace tax cuts. Of course the stimulus package last year, which Republicans opposed unanimously in the House, was nearly 1/3 tax cuts to the middle class. The Republican idea of “across the board tax cuts” are tax cuts to millionaires and corporations, similar to what we saw during the Bush years. President Obama rightly questioned why the Republican Party opposed a bill that included such large amounts of tax relief, as well as funding to cities and states that were laying off teachers, police officers, firefighters and health care professionals to ensure that they kept their jobs.

Another major point of contention was the idea that President Obama and the Democrats have set the country on a path to fiscal disaster. That simply is untrue. As President Obama pointed out, he inherited a $1.2 trillion annual deficit from President Bush. Yes, the size of the deficit increased last year, but only marginally. Passing the stimulus package was the main reason for that. When Obama took office a year ago, in the first quarter of 2009, the GDP fell 6.4%. If we had not passed the stimulus act, most economists agree that we would not have seen the kind of business growth that led to a nearly 6% increase in GDP for the 4th quarter of 2009. That is a hugely positive sign that you won’t hear Republicans touting. We are on the road to economic recovery. Jobs will not appear overnight, but they will come. Returning to the failed policies of the Bush years, however, will only ensure another economic disaster.