Kyle Bell

If you watch television at all, particularly Fox Conservative Opinion Channel (otherwise known as Fox “News”), you have probably heard a lot of Republican pundits talk about how they are going to retake the House of Representatives in the fall election. While it certainly would not be out of the realm of possibility if current political circumstances continue, most respected analysts expect Democrats to lose roughly 15-25 seats. This would go along with historical patterns that see the president’s party lose seats in the second year of his first term (George W. Bush was the only modern exception directly after 9/11).

In order to win the House, however, Republicans would need to pick up 40 seats. That’s roughly double their current projected pickups. It is also more than Democrats managed to win in the 2006 elections or 2008 elections. In those years, with President Bush’s approval rating in the high 20s to low 30s, Democrats won 31 seats and 21 seats, respectively. President Obama’s approval rating stands around 50 percent, where it has been stabilizing for several months. Unless there is a significant drop in the president’s approval rating, it seems highly unlikely that Congress will switch hands.

The chairman of the Republican Party, Michael Steele, agrees with me. In an interview with that same Fox Conservative Opinion Channel, Michael Steele shut the door on the possibility. Sean Hannity asked him if Republicans would win back the House. His response: “Not this year.” He went on to cast doubt on whether Republicans should even return to power. “If we do that, are we ready? I don’t know. That’s what I’m assessing and evaluating now.”