This week’s update is going to be a little different than the last. We are now going to have three maps:
Will show states that favor either Obama or McCain and states that are competitive with the difference being less than 10%
The second map will show the same states that favor Obama or McCain, but add a category of “lean” Obama or McCain (between 5-10%) and then “toss-up” (less than 5%)
The third map is my personal prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out on Election Day. This one is not necessarily based on current polling, but trends, demographics, turnout projection and so on.
Let’s get to this week’s changes to the map. We have a few things going on here. First, we see that the post-primary bump for Barack Obama is driving up his poll numbers both in state and national polls. A new Newsweek poll has him up by 15% over McCain nationally.
The state-by-state picture is even brighter this week than it was last week for Obama. Two states have fallen into our “safe” state category this week: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Obama now leads by greater than 10%. Meanwhile, Florida unexpectedly moves from “leans” McCain to “toss-up” as a poll out this week had Obama up in the state by 4%. McCain’s recent comments about off-shore oil drilling could very well hurt him even more in the Sunshine State where tourism is a key economic issue.
This week we have six “lean” McCain states (which means he is leading between 5-10%). They are: Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, South Carolina and West Virginia. This is not good news for McCain, as five of his six states where he has a small lead are traditionally conservative Republican states, while Obama’s “lean” states include Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and New Mexico, which all voted for Bush in 2004. The only state that voted for Kerry that I have in the “lean” column for Obama is Wisconsin.
Among toss-up states are a few surprises (Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina), while the perennial battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, Missouri and Nevada all make a showing as “toss-ups”. Virginia is also included in this category. Of the eight toss-up states 7 voted for George Bush in 2004 and only 1 voted for John Kerry in 2004. Like the “lean” category, this means that Obama is expanding the playing field while McCain is stuck with only Michigan as a potential pick-up.
Obama 51, McCain 36 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465
McCain 45, Obama 41 – June 15, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/alaska/toplines_alaska_presidential_race_june_16_2008
Obama 47, McCain 43 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187
McCain 44, Obama 43 – June 19, 2008 – http://www.ajc.com/search/content/news/stories/2008/06/19/mccain_obama_georgia.html
McCain 45, Obama 42 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election
McCain 45, Obama 43 – June 10, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_carolina/toplines_north_carolina_presidential_election_june_10_2008
Obama 48, McCain 42 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187
Obama 50, McCain 39 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election
Obama 52, McCain 40 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187