Archive for June, 2008

McCain Praises GI Bill He Opposed

Posted on: June 27th, 2008 by Kyle. | No Comments

John McCain likes to take credit for things that he had nothing to do with. McCain took credit for the ousting of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld after he was released from his position following the landslide 2006 defeat of Congressional Republicans. Now he’s taking credit for a GI Bill that he not only didn’t vote for, but was opposed to:

I’m happy to tell you that we probably agreed to an increase in educational benefits for our veterans that not only gives them increase in their educational benefits, but if they stay in for a certain period of time than they can transfer those educational benefits to their spouses and or children. That’s a very important aspect I think of incentivizing people of staying in the military.

Election Projection 2008: June 22 Update

Posted on: June 22nd, 2008 by Kyle. | No Comments

This week’s update is going to be a little different than the last. We are now going to have three maps:

Will show states that favor either Obama or McCain and states that are competitive with the difference being less than 10%
The second map will show the same states that favor Obama or McCain, but add a category of “lean” Obama or McCain (between 5-10%) and then “toss-up” (less than 5%)
The third map is my personal prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out on Election Day. This one is not necessarily based on current polling, but trends, demographics, turnout projection and so on.

Let’s get to this week’s changes to the map. We have a few things going on here. First, we see that the post-primary bump for Barack Obama is driving up his poll numbers both in state and national polls. A new Newsweek poll has him up by 15% over McCain nationally.

The state-by-state picture is even brighter this week than it was last week for Obama. Two states have fallen into our “safe” state category this week: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where Obama now leads by greater than 10%. Meanwhile, Florida unexpectedly moves from “leans” McCain to “toss-up” as a poll out this week had Obama up in the state by 4%. McCain’s recent comments about off-shore oil drilling could very well hurt him even more in the Sunshine State where tourism is a key economic issue.

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This week we have six “lean” McCain states (which means he is leading between 5-10%). They are: Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, South Carolina and West Virginia. This is not good news for McCain, as five of his six states where he has a small lead are traditionally conservative Republican states, while Obama’s “lean” states include Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and New Mexico, which all voted for Bush in 2004. The only state that voted for Kerry that I have in the “lean” column for Obama is Wisconsin.

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Among toss-up states are a few surprises (Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina), while the perennial battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, Missouri and Nevada all make a showing as “toss-ups”. Virginia is also included in this category. Of the eight toss-up states 7 voted for George Bush in 2004 and only 1 voted for John Kerry in 2004. Like the “lean” category, this means that Obama is expanding the playing field while McCain is stuck with only Michigan as a potential pick-up.

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Sources:

National polls:

Obama 51, McCain 36 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

State polls:

Toss-up States

Alaska:

McCain 45, Obama 41 – June 15, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/alaska/toplines_alaska_presidential_race_june_16_2008

Florida:

Obama 47, McCain 43 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

Georgia:

McCain 44, Obama 43 – June 19, 2008 – http://www.ajc.com/search/content/news/stories/2008/06/19/mccain_obama_georgia.html

Nevada:

McCain 45, Obama 42 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

North Carolina:

McCain 45, Obama 43 – June 10, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_carolina/toplines_north_carolina_presidential_election_june_10_2008

Competitive/“Lean” States

Ohio:

Obama 48, McCain 42 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

“Safe” States

New Hampshire:

Obama 50, McCain 39 – June 20, 2008 – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

Pennsylvania:

Obama 52, McCain 40 – June 18, 2008 – https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

John McCain: The Petroleum Pandering Politician

Posted on: June 17th, 2008 by Kyle. | No Comments

John McCain today announced that he was for offshore oil drilling. Despite the fact that a.) many states don’t support it b.) it would produce only a long-term solution to an oil-focused energy mix, John McCain flip-flopped his position on this issue. That’s another flip-flop that you can add to the ever-growing list of flip-flops he’s made on issues ranging from the Bush tax cuts to torture. All I have to say to the McCain people is: please, please make an issue of this in Florida. Voters there hate the idea of having oil rigs off the shore of their pristine beaches. Nothing like the view of the ocean, a sunset and an oil rig.

This is the second oil/gas related pander attempt McCain has made to voters in just the past couple months. McCain was the first to propose a “gas tax holiday” for the summer. The idea would mean higher demand for gasoline (raising prices) and would leave our infrastructure in dire condition. A little pandering is to be expected. Even Hillary Clinton couldn’t resist the temptation of a gas tax holiday. But when you pander as much as John McCain, you start to look like, well, George Bush.

Unfortunately for McCain, while he is off on the road acting as if he is distancing himself from President Bush, he in fact holds the same position as the president on offshore drilling. As CNN reports:

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said President Bush on Wednesday will ask Congress to lift the ban on offshore drilling.

Bush has long called for opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil exploration, but Perino said he now wants to go further.

“For years, the president has pushed Congress to expand our domestic oil supply, but Democrats in Congress have consistently blocked such action,” she said.

While John McCain was taking the same position as Bush (and the mainstream Republican position that he once opposed), he accuses Barack Obama of recycling old policies. “I’m all for recycling — but it’s better applied to paper and plastic than to the failed policies of the 1970′s.” Yet again, it’s unfortunate for Senator McCain that he is the one who is recycling the policies of the Bush years.

The truth is, America needs a bold new energy plan. Gas tax holidays and drilling off of the coast of Florida isn’t going to solve our energy problems. As Obama has said, we need an Apollo-like program for energy. It is going to take a massive investment in our government to come up with an affordable, reliable and cheap solution for our transportation and energy needs. Companies like Honda are leading the way with Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The U.S. government could do more to give tax credits to American companies like Ford, GM and Chrysler (as well as foreign companies willing to invest in American workers) to create cars and jobs that don’t rely on oil.

The technology is already there. Chevy is coming out with a plug-in hybrid known as the Volt which will run for 40 miles on electricity before it switches to its gasoline tank as a backup source. For people that live in the city and don’t travel for more than 40 miles a day, that would mean they would never have to visit a gasoline station again. Of course removing gasoline from our cars and putting them on electricity would put a strain on our power grid. That’s why green technologies such as the ones just being introduced in Indiana – wind power mills in the middle of farm fields – unobstructive and completely clean energy, are solutions that we should pursue. Solar energy should be given a second look, especially in the Southwest and other places in the “Sun Belt”. Geothermal and tidal power (such as the one being proposed in the San Francisco Bay area) are promising as well.

When you have a problem, you should not seek out the same failed route to a solution. The solution to our energy crisis is not oil. It’s time, in the year 2008, that we put the combustion engine to rest. This country has some of the smartest minds in the world. If we set our minds to it, we can solve anything. John McCain and others like him will have you think that oil is a lifeline that America could not and should not be taken off of. Real leaders know that we should use the technology currently available to ween our way off of our oil addiction with hybrids and electric cars, while quickly coming up with a non-petroleum based alternative.

Election Projection 2008: June 9 Update

Posted on: June 10th, 2008 by Kyle. | 1 Comment

Hello everyone! The last time I posted was on May 29, 2008. Hillary Clinton was still officially in the race, but the primary season mathematically ended on her weeks prior to that. She has finally since given it up, endorsing Barack Obama this past Saturday. The wounds will begin to heal after 17 months of primary campaigning between these two rivals for the nomination. Barack Obama secured the 2,118 delegates needed to become the Democratic Party’s nominee on Tuesday, June 3, 2008, becoming the first African American nominee of any party in our country’s history. He did it with a win in Montana, the final Democratic primary of the season.

With the primaries behind us, the map is begin to shape up more favorably for Obama, as should be expected. Things will only get better for him between now and November as Hillary supporters come home, Democrats unite, voters become more familiar with Barack Obama and the economy continues to falter. This latest update sees only one state (Texas) move out of “competitive” territory while a whole slate of states move into the gray area of “toss-up” and “competitive” as we move the marker from being less than 5% to less than 10%.

As we really don’t know what to expect yet and polling remains limited in many states, it makes more sense to not rule out upsets in states like Montana, Louisiana, South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. This mainly hurts McCain, as he is enjoying slight edges in states that would in any other year be considered solidly Republican. But since his margins in states like Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Indiana and a whole slew of states are under 10%, these states are certainly far from safe. With enough time on the ground and ads on television, Obama could put all of these places in play.

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This map compares strikingly to the map that we first unveiled on May 29, 2008 (shown below):

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Another thing to keep in mind for Nebraska is that they distribute their electoral votes. They have a statewide winner, then winners by Congressional District. The statewide winner gets 2 of the state’s electoral votes, and the winner of each of the three Congressional District will receive 1 a piece. Polls show that Obama is statistically tied with McCain in the Omaha-anchored Congressional district in Nebraska, which could net him 1 electoral vote. He is also within five points in another, while trailing statewide by less than 10%. Right now we have Nebraska in the “competitive” category on the <10% map and on the map without toss-ups, McCain is receiving all 5 electoral votes. This may change within the next few updates. Below is my projection map without toss-up states:

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