Kyle Bell

Since Super Tuesday, Obama has won Washington state, Washington D.C., Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, the Virgin Islands, Hawaii and now Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton has won zero. 0. 10-0 for Obama. That’s every corner of the country, red, blue and purple states, large margins in all. In fact, none of them were within 10%. Her campaign strategy of ignoring all but the biggest states has proven to be fatal. Now Obama is winning white men by more than 10% and within 2% of winning white women.

Wisconsin

Obama – 58%
Hillary – 40%

This is a state where Obama was only polling ahead of her by 5% (some polls had her up), she was running tv ads and campaigned in the state. Yet she lost it by 17%. Incredible.

Hawaii

Obama – 76%
Hillary – 23%

There are a few more points I would like to make. Obama had 645,000 votes of more than a million cast in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary. All of the Republicans combined had just over 400,000 votes. That’s Obama alone and he has a 245,000 vote advantage on every Republican combined. This is a state that went for Gore and Kerry by less than 10,000 votes. We saw a similar result last week in Virginia where Obama had more votes than every Republican combined. Clearly he is the most electable candidate and will win in places that Gore and Kerry did not.

It is nigh impossible for Hillary to win. She can stay in through Ohio and Texas so those people can have their say, but after that, she really needs to understand the math. If she does not win with margins exceeding 60% in all remaining states (MSNBC says 65%), she can not win the nomination. Given that she has only won one state with greater than 60% of the vote (Arkansas), there is no reason for us to believe that she can do that in Ohio or Texas. To give her the benefit of the doubt and say she will win both, as well as Pennsylvania, is a stretch at this point. Obama’s elected delegate lead is now in the range of 150. If she can manage a miracle in Ohio and Texas, winning over 60% of the delegates, good for her. She’s back in the ballgame.

If she does not do that, it is not mathematically possible for her to win, thus it is currently unlikely that she will. Hillary is relying on three or four miracles to win the nomination. She doesn’t need one. She doesn’t need two. She needs all three, possibly the fourth. There’s a law that says if you are counting on too many miracles to happen, it won’t happen. I’ll run them down:

1. Her first miracle would be winning Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by more than 60% in each state.

2. Her second miracle would be to win a majority of delegates in the remaining states after OH, TX and PA.

3. Her third miracle would be to get super delegates to overturn the will of voters when Obama has an elected delegate lead.

I mentioned four miracles. The fourth would be for the Democratic Party to go back on the rules they set before the process started in which they penalized Florida and Michigan for moving up their primaries. Both Hillary and Obama agreed that the contests would not count and that they would not campaign there. Now the Hillary campaign wants them to count since she won both and Obama’s name wasn’t even on the Michigan ballot. The party rules were clear and for them to change the rules in the middle of the ballgame to aid Hillary Clinton would not only be wrong, it would be unthinkable.