Kyle Bell

Tomorrow, voters go to the polls in the state of Iowa to decide who will lead America post-Bush. After millions of dollars on ads, dozens of debates, hundreds of town hall meetings by all of the candidates and nearly a full year of campaigning, including a frantic push these past two weeks during the holiday season, things are coming into view. The Democratic race appears to be tight. Mike Huckabee, who most people had not heard of until a few weeks ago, is giving Mitt Romney the race of his life on the Republican side.

Since who I support is clear if you know me or have read my past blogs (Obama), I’m not going to make another pitch for why he should be the Democratic nominee. Instead, as I did just before the 2006 elections, correctly predicting Democrats would reclaim Congress, winning all 3 competitive House races in Indiana, as well as the Senate races in Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia, I want to get on the record for who will win the Iowa caucuses and the nominations (at least the Democratic side). Here are my predictions:

1. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama wins Iowa, upsetting the “front-runner” Hillary Clinton in what will go down as one of the most historic primary upsets of all time. The former president Clinton’s wife, Hillary, will be defeated by a one-term Senator from Illinois by more than 5 percentage points. In fact, John Edwards will come in second and Hillary will stumble to an embarrassing third.

2. Mike Huckabee’s past and recent campaign gaffes will haunt him. It also won’t help that he is in California on Iowa Caucus Eve to tape a show with Jay Leno. As you may recall, Leno didn’t exactly help from Thompson take off when he skipped a New Hampshire debate to appear on the Tonight Show. Mitt Romney, despite the media’s relentless scrutiny of his Mormon faith and flip-flopping track record, will win in Iowa for his efforts on the ground spending so much time there and his get out the vote machine. This one will be closer. I would guess Romney wins only by 3-5 points.

3. This is where it gets interesting. On the Republican side, Ron Paul is going to surprise people with a third or fourth place showing. McCain will more than likely be right behind him, with Fred Thompson a distant single-digit fifth. Rudy Giuliani, the national “front-runner” will show up on the New York Times frontpage Friday morning a campaign-ending sixth place. Only Congressman Duncan Hunter will do worse than Rudy in Iowa.

4. Barack Obama’s win in Iowa will translate into a New Hampshire surge, where independents in the Granite State will vote overwhelming in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican primary, hurting John McCain and helping Mitt Romney win his second primary.

Summary:

I predict Obama and Romney will win both Iowa and New Hampshire. I’ll leave any further predictions for another day. As I told a friend, we only see a candidate like Obama once in every few generations. Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy. History changers. Obama is the leader our country needs. He has Bill Clinton’s charisma with the cross country appeal of John and Bobby Kennedy. Bill Clinton said that voting for Obama is “rolling the dice”. In other words, you know what you’re getting with the Clintons. It’s not change and it’s not something that America wants again. America needs a fresh start. Iowa is the place, tomorrow is the time.